The picture shows Cai Qi, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, attending the National People's Congress on March 12, 2023. (Screenshot from the web)
[People News] On August 3, Cai Qi, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and Secretary of the Central Secretariat, visited experts on summer vacation in Beidaihe, signalling the commencement of the two-week Beidaihe vacation. Senior officials, including Xi Jinping, have also travelled to Beidaihe for a vacation-style work session. Leading up to this, numerous rumours have circulated, adding an air of mystery to this year's Beidaihe meeting. Will this year's gathering witness a dramatic push from the elder faction to force Xi Jinping to resign, or is it true that 'there is no meeting in Beidaihe'? Political circles are buzzing with speculation.
According to a report from Xinhua News Agency, on August 3, Cai Qi, acting on Xi Jinping's behalf, visited experts on summer vacation in Beidaihe.
CCTV footage reveals that over 50 experts have gathered in Beidaihe for their summer break. Flanking Cai Qi are Zheng Nanning, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and an expert in artificial intelligence, and Qian Chengdan, the director of the Institute of Regional and National Studies at Peking University and a historian.
Additionally, Shi Taifeng, the Minister of the Organisation Department, and State Councillor Shen Yiqin also took part in the visit.
Historically, the Beidaihe meeting has garnered significant attention, seen as a crucial venue for the Communist Party's top leaders to convene and make important decisions during their summer recess.
As this year's Beidaihe meeting approaches, speculation has intensified online regarding Xi Jinping's potential loss of power and various rumours surrounding the list of successors. Many suggest that at the forthcoming Beidaihe meeting, fierce competition is expected, with the elder faction pushing for Xi Jinping's resignation. However, some believe that Xi Jinping is reluctant to relinquish power and is determined to hold on.
In mid-July, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen informed reporters that Zhongnanhai is set to hold an important closed-door meeting in August. The term 'conclave' that Yellen used can refer to both the papal election assembly and any small, secretive, or exclusive meeting in contemporary English.
Many observers believe that the mysterious meeting Yellen referred to is the Beidaihe meeting, which occurs annually from late July to early August. Opinions vary on whether a leadership change will be decided during this meeting.
Some analysts argue that the significance of the Beidaihe meeting has diminished since Hu Jintao's tenure began, and that there is no longer a summer office in Beidaihe. It has essentially become a time for senior Communist Party officials and elders to escape the summer heat and take vacations.
Conversely, others contend that the Beidaihe meeting serves as a secret venue for power struggles and negotiations among the Communist Party's top leaders. Key policies and personnel decisions are reportedly finalised in secrecy during these gatherings.
Reports from the Beidaihe meetings in 2023 and 2024 indicate that a group of retired Communist Party elders criticised Xi Jinping, while Xi Jinping, Cai Qi, and Li Qiang reflected on their actions during the meetings.
Shen Mingshi, a researcher at the National Defence Security Research Institute, believes that Xi Jinping's position is under threat. In an interview with RTI News, he stated: 'Overall, the larger trend indicates that Xi Jinping is facing both internal and external challenges. Additionally, due to personal health issues and the fact that he currently lacks military authority, a group of elder statesmen is calling for his resignation, which seems quite certain. The recent passage of regulations concerning the Central Committee's deliberative bodies further confirms that these rules are intended to allow some elder statesmen to participate in the decision-making of the Politburo Standing Committee. Under this legalised framework, it is generally expected that Xi Jinping should step down, which appears to be quite certain.'
He emphasised that the crucial factor is the outcome of the Beidaihe meeting.
Professor Sun Guoxiang from the Asia-Pacific Research Institute at National Sun Yat-sen University, however, remains cautious about this situation. He remarked: 'The current Beidaihe may present two scenarios: the first is that everyone follows Xi Jinping's directives. The second scenario is that while everyone may seem to be discussing matters, they are merely echoing Xi Jinping's ideology and are unable to present differing opinions, as Xi Jinping's core thoughts have already been incorporated into the constitution. Thus, I would argue that Beidaihe has essentially become a mere formality of consensus.'
Political commentator Wen Zhao previously noted in his program that the Beidaihe venue was specifically designed for political elders to exert their remaining influence. Whenever discussions are held there, it is undoubtedly unfavourable for the current leaders; the more significant the topics discussed, the more detrimental it is for those in power.
As the Beidaihe Conference begins, some rumours may be confirmed. However, due to the opaque nature of the Chinese Communist Party's politics, the outside world might only perceive a blurred picture. △
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