Friends Returning to China Are Sharing a Consistent Message: Don't Come Back

At the U.S. Consulate in Guangzhou, long lines of visa applicants form even before the consulate opens each morning. (Video screenshot)

[People News] On February 16, X platform user 'Sukie' posted that many friends returning home for the New Year conveyed the same news: the economic sentiment in China has dropped to a freezing point, and parents are urging their children not to return home. This post has sparked lively discussions among many users on X.

The full text of 'Sukie's' post is as follows:

This New Year, many friends who returned to China shared remarkably similar news: the economic sentiment in the country has plummeted, and their parents have explicitly requested that they do everything possible to stay in the U.S. to earn money. This can be seen as a sign that the spring river warms the ducks first.

Business owners are facing repeated tax audits, and families within the system are feeling increasingly insecure. The entire system is caught in a contradictory dilemma, and such contradictions will likely accelerate the arrival of certain inevitable events that everyone knows are 'highly likely to come.'

The first major impact is the debt death spiral resulting from the deleveraging of the real estate sector:

Excessive borrowing in the real estate sector has drained the consumption power of an entire generation in China, trapping the economy in a fragile closed loop: developers borrow to acquire land, residents take on debt to buy homes, and local governments become heavily reliant on land finance. As demand shrinks, housing prices decline, land transfer fees are cut in half, local debt risks accumulate, and funds are sought from other industries to cover the shortfall. This cycle ultimately leads to the disintegration of residents' incomes and major sectors of the economy.

Many people draw comparisons between China and Japan, but the levels of debt transparency in the two countries are not comparable.

After the bubble burst, Japan managed to address bad debts relatively quickly and maintained data transparency with institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank. By the early 2000s, most bad debts had been resolved. In contrast, China harbours a vast amount of hidden debt associated with local governments, state-owned enterprises, and financial institutions, creating a narrative that cannot be openly discussed and relies on faith in the centralised debt capacity.

Additionally, there is a contradiction between the current high unemployment rate and the ongoing decline in the birth rate.

On one hand, there are no industries in China that can absorb graduates, resulting in an unemployment rate exceeding 20%, with a significant number of unemployed individuals contributing to social instability. On the other hand, the declining birth rate is likely to lead to a severe labour shortage in the near future.

Currently, it appears that China can still depend on its manufacturing sector and exports to sustain a robust national power. Additionally, it has a large population to support military reserves and a significant amount of foreign exchange as backup support. Militarily, despite not having engaged in warfare for a long time, it seems that its strong manufacturing capabilities render it nearly invincible on the global stage. In the realm of AI, it is also at the forefront. However, given the two unresolved contradictions mentioned earlier, the high-probability event that many anticipate is approaching quickly. Should there be a large-scale sell-off of U.S. bonds, European bonds, and gold, it would be prudent for everyone to prepare and exit early.

The time has come to choose sides and alliances.

Netizens: Don’t watch Xinwen Lianbo

Sukie’s post drew widespread attention and heated discussion among users on X.

X user “Ivanovic” commented: “China today has widening wealth inequality, weak consumption, low–human-rights manufacturing facing trade blockades, and an ageing population. But these are economic problems, and economic problems can be solved. China’s real problem is that all of these issues are caused by political problems — they are the result of mistaken policies made by a dictator. The emergence of a dictator shows that China has taken a detour on the road toward democratic revolution.”

Another X user, “Sima Xiaohan,” said: “‘When the spring river warms, the ducks are the first to know’ — that saying is far too polite. The reality is this: the captain and the first-class passengers have already been quietly launching the lifeboats, while the people in steerage are still arguing over whether the ship will sink. Those inside the system and the families of business owners understand this system best. When even the vested-interest groups start telling their children that, no matter what, they must die abroad rather than at home, it shows that the internal accounts they see are ten thousand times worse than we can imagine. Don’t watch Xinwen Lianbo — look at the footprints of the rich instead.” △