Envisioning the Future of China's Territory: Could Five Provinces Become Independent Overnight?

The image shows a warning cone in Tiananmen Square. (Feng Li / Getty Images) Dajiyuan

[People News] Many people refer to Xi Jinping as the General Accelerator. Over the past year, it has become evident from various perspectives that Xi Baozi is not merely reversing into a wall; he is accelerating into it. The outcome is that three critical areas—money (economic cliff), people (elite exodus), and military (grassroots suspicion and apathy)—are all faltering simultaneously.

The economic decline in the People's Republic of China, coupled with local governments drowning in debt, a lack of funds for maintaining stability, the outflow of elites, and growing grassroots dissatisfaction, has been widely reported.

The issue of unpaid wages at the grassroots level is escalating, with some local government departments resorting to issuing IOUs instead of actual salaries. Since the outbreak of the CCP virus in 2020, financial centres across the country have struggled to recover, leading to persistently high office vacancy rates. The ongoing purges within military leadership have resulted in a state of apathy at the grassroots level, effectively paralysing the military system. Recent conflicts in Iran and the Venezuelan raid, along with the ineffectiveness of the CCP's air defence systems and aircraft carrier capabilities, suggest that the military-industrial complex may soon face more rigorous corruption investigations and purges. The sudden deaths of certain experts raise questions about whether they were killed in Iran or executed by Xi Baozi.

Survival is a fundamental human instinct, and more people are choosing to jump ship. As the saying goes, what has been divided for a long time must eventually unite, and what has been united for a long time must eventually divide. With the disintegration of the central authoritarian and stability maintenance system, five regions within the People's Republic of China are most likely to seek independence first, reminiscent of the warlord fragmentation and provincial independence during the late Qing Dynasty and early Republic. History often has a striking resemblance.

Xinjiang is a volatile region, and many people from the mainland hold a stereotype that the residents of Xinjiang are either thieves or involved in the cut cake trade. Historically, Wang Zhen's brutal suppression of the Xinjiang people has fostered deep ethnic animosity. For some Xinjiang residents, those labelled as thieves are seen as avengers acting on behalf of a higher power, seeking justice for the countless wronged souls in the region. The subsidies from the Production and Construction Corps, the resettlement of Han Chinese, and energy development all depend on support from the central government.

By the end of 2025, grassroots police salaries will cease, grid workers will face hunger, Han Chinese will withdraw, and Uyghurs will take control of mosques, leaving border outposts in darkness. If the helicopters tasked with maintaining stability stop flying, the East Turkestan flag could be raised within three days. The first shot to challenge the Chinese Communist Party may very well be fired from Urumqi.

Tibet faces a similar predicament. Hu Jintao was selected as the successor by Deng Xiaoping due to his ruthless approach to suppressing Tibetans. Issues such as the reincarnation controversy, self-sufficient temples, and youth outflow are all kept in check by what is referred to as 'faith subsidies.'

Once these subsidies are halted in 2026, lamas will resume the golden urn lottery, and young people will rally behind the Snow Lion Flag. The driving force behind this movement is not firearms, but faith. Historically, Tibet was jointly governed by the Dalai Lama and the Panchen Lama, who recognised each other's reincarnated living Buddhas. Each time the 10th Panchen Lama returned to Tibet, the cash offerings from his followers had to be packed in burlap sacks. Interestingly, both he and Li Keqiang died of sudden heart attacks at a relatively young age. The 14th Dalai Lama, now 90 years old, has his health status closely monitored by various countries, as he remains a revered spiritual leader for many Tibetans. Should Beijing lose control over the prayer wheels in Lhasa, the roof of the world could erupt into action.

Shandong was once regarded as Beijing's most reliable 'back garden', leading to the stereotype that Shandong people are all eager to take civil service exams. However, civil servants are now facing wage arrears, transforming the once secure 'iron rice bowl' into a precarious situation, awakening the latent bandit instincts. The region is home to significant historical sites such as the anti-Japanese resistance in Jiaodong, the revolutionary base in Yimeng, and a naval base. A potential scenario for 2026 could see military funding cut, salaries halted for the North Sea Fleet, and logistical breakdowns in Jinan. Shandong's loyalty has depended on financial and food support from Beijing; if this supply is interrupted, it could lead to the revival of the 'Qilu Republic', with the navy tasked to protect Bohai Bay. Submarines in Qingdao and fishing boats in Yantai have long been prepared for action.

Guangdong people are known for their business acumen; early overseas immigrants were predominantly from Guangdong, and many Chinatowns in major cities worldwide are largely Cantonese. The central government's initiative for 'common prosperity' essentially aims to extract resources from wealthier provinces. Guangdong's approach to counter this is to keep tax payments to a minimum, with Shenzhen and Guangzhou engaging in cross-border RMB transactions with Hong Kong to evade taxes. After decades of supporting the nation, Guangdong now faces environmental regulations, land nationalisation, and factory relocations. By 2026, Guangdong might advocate for 'southerners governing the south', focusing on economic self-sufficiency and political autonomy. Shenzhen's tech stocks and Guangzhou's ports are already set up with independent financial records.

Shanghai, often referred to as the older Eastern Pearl compared to Hong Kong, stands as a prominent East Asian financial centre. Despite enduring a century of devastation by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the Bund remains illuminated, yet the people have become increasingly disengaged. The emotional scars from the lockdown years have created a strong centrifugal force. The elite either seek refuge abroad or participate in 'Southeast Mutual Protection.' By 2026, as capital continues to flee and the renminbi faces collapse, Shanghai may resort to a 'silent strike': refusing to pay taxes, disregarding the central bank, and opting for US dollar transactions. While Shanghai may not necessarily pursue independence, it demands respect. If this vibrant city presses the pause button, Beijing's financial lifeline will be cut off.

The CCP may not need to be dismantled by external forces; it is more likely to fracture from within, potentially leading to the overnight independence of five provinces—how much longer do you think the CCP can endure?

(Originally published in People News)
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