Li Rising and Cai Falling: Xi Jinping High-Profile Anti-Reform Once Again

Caption: Rumors from Beijing suggest a move to topple the "New Gang of Four." (People News graphic)

[People News] Recently, frequent shifts in the CCP's upper echelons indicate power repositioning, accompanied by an emergency plan aimed at boosting the economy, which makes the CCP's political-economic landscape appear mysterious and chaotic. Another major development on October 29 has garnered attention.

According to Xinhua News Agency, a study and implementation seminar for provincial and ministerial-level officials on the 20th Central Committee’s Third Plenary Session spirit began on October 29 at the Central Party School. Xi Jinping delivered an important speech, with the other six Standing Committee members and Han Zheng attending the opening meeting.

Li Qiang’s Power Rises, Cai Qi Left Out

There are two key points from this meeting. First, it was chaired by Li Qiang. Typically, a seminar for provincial and ministerial-level officials is chaired by the State Council Premier; before the 20th Party Congress, this role was largely filled by Li Keqiang, and after the 20th Congress, it was primarily chaired by Li Qiang.

However, in a rare move, the seminar for promoting high-quality development in finance held on January 16 of this year was chaired by Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi, signaling an increase in Cai Qi's influence.

After the 20th Party Congress, the State Council led by Li Qiang was reduced to functioning as an office of Xi Jinping’s central leadership. Li Qiang’s overseas visits were conducted on chartered flights rather than a special aircraft, and this year’s Two Sessions concluded without the traditional premier's press conference. A series of signals indicate that Li Qiang has not only become a mere follower of Xi Jinping but also lacks Xi’s attention. While he holds the title of the second-ranking Party official, his actual power has been significantly reduced, unable to compete with Cai Qi.

Fifth in the Standing Committee ranking, Cai Qi enjoys Xi Jinping’s favor, with his power surging as he holds multiple critical roles, including Standing Committee member, Secretary of the Secretariat, and Director of the General Office, managing both security and propaganda. In recent years, Xi has pushed anti-corruption campaigns in the financial sector, purged anti-Xi forces, stressed financial security, and insisted that the Party control finance, using the public security and national security systems to oversee financial affairs. On January 16, 2024, Cai Qi chaired a seminar on finance for provincial and ministerial officials, highlighting his successful takeover of economic and financial oversight from Li Qiang. In March, Hong Kong media revealed that Xi Jinping appointed Cai Qi as head of the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission, further elevating Cai Qi to the undisputed "internet czar" of China.

However, fortunes can change. At the Third Plenary Session, it was rumored that Xi Jinping faced internal criticism from Party elders and “princelings,” forcing him to compromise on power, with military authority shifting to Zhang Youxia. Xi’s confidant Cai Qi was reportedly labeled as one of the “New Gang of Four” by the anti-Xi faction, with his fate now uncertain. Additional rumors suggest Xi Jinping suffered a sudden stroke and was unconscious during the session, during which Cai Qi, under attacks from Party elders, removed the article Reformer Xi Jinping and revealed insider details about Li Keqiang’s sudden death. When Xi Jinping recovered, his trust in Cai Qi sharply declined. In mid-October, when Xi Jinping traveled to Fujian and Anhui, Cai Qi notably did not accompany him.

Recently, Zhang Youxia visited Vietnam and received an exceptionally high-level reception from top Vietnamese Party, government, and military officials, while notably omitting any mention of Xi Jinping. Cai Qi’s media system attempted to block this news, but two days later, Cai Qi was forced to report it in Party media. Now, with Li Qiang resuming the role of chairing the seminar for provincial and ministerial officials, it suggests Cai Qi's influence is waning, while Li Qiang’s power seems to be rebounding. Zhongnanhai has entered a period of Li’s rise and Cai’s decline.

Xi Jinping Shackling Reform

The second key point of the meeting is that Xi Jinping unusually set principled red lines and rules for “reform.” He stated, “Our reforms have direction and principles. We must uphold the Party’s overall leadership, uphold Marxism, uphold socialism with Chinese characteristics, and uphold people’s democratic dictatorship,” stressing that reforms should “reflect the Party’s nature and purpose.”

“Upholding the Party’s overall leadership, Marxism, socialism with Chinese characteristics, and people’s democratic dictatorship”—aren’t these the Four Cardinal Principles? Xi Jinping is rehashing Deng Xiaoping’s theory, but dares not, or is unwilling to, mention “one central task and two basic points,” nor emphasize “focusing on economic development.”

Xi Jinping is essentially playing a political game, calculating political gains. The recent sharp economic policy shift is not grounded in a framework of normalized reform and opening but stems from his poor economic track record, which has led to social unrest and threatens the CCP’s regime. Xi’s “red roots” and initial goal of abolishing private property have not changed.

During the Third Plenary Session on July 15, Xinhua News Agency published a special report, Reformer Xi Jinping, stating that “Xi Jinping is regarded as another outstanding reformer after Deng Xiaoping.” The article was taken down for over-praising Xi. On July 17, People’s Daily published an article titled “Provide Strong Ideological Weapons for Comprehensive Deepening of Reform,” which pointed out that reform should “uphold fundamental principles by strengthening the Party’s leadership over reform” and firmly follow the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics, avoiding rigidly transplanting Western theories and viewpoints.

The so-called “Xi-style reform” is actually reverse reform, anti-reform. First, it designates the West as the hypothetical enemy, aiming for East to rise, West to fall, and advocating for world governance and the global export of communist ideology. Second, it mandates Party branches forcibly entering foreign enterprises, insisting on absolute Party leadership, with an intense focus on Party preservation. Third, it emphasizes political security over economic security, with national security overseeing the economy, promoting a “bright future for the economy” while focusing on political stability. Fourth, the so-called economic transformation, such as reviving supply and marketing cooperatives, creating a unified national market, enacting laws on collective economic organizations in rural areas, and developing new productive forces, represents a significant regression and failure. Fifth, the so-called package of incremental and stock economic stimulus policies is fundamentally aimed at rescuing local government debt and preventing systemic financial collapse, unrelated to the happiness of ordinary people and simply stimulating another round of “sweeping the harvest” from the people.

Only with the fall of Xi Jinping and the CCP can the chaos be eradicated and order restored.

(First published by People News)