CCP Plans Trade War Before U.S. Election Ends, Aims to Build "Bridges" in Trade and Diplomacy

"Xi Jinping will inevitably face the difficult choice of continuing to deal with either Biden or Trump." (Getty Images/Dajiyuan Composite)

[People News] With the U.S. election still underway, the CCP has sensed that, regardless of who becomes the next president, an intensified "trade war" with China is inevitable. Therefore, the CCP has already started preparing for the "aftermath," with the main strategy being to diversify sources of imported food to reduce dependence on U.S. agricultural products.

Based on the trends in the U.S. election, a trade war over agricultural products, particularly soybeans and corn, is imminent for China. U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that if elected, he would impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods to boost U.S. manufacturing.

According to foreign media reports, Trump’s spokesperson did not comment directly on China’s decreasing reliance on U.S. agricultural products. Instead, the spokesperson reiterated Trump’s previous remarks, calling tariffs a “beautiful word” and stating, "We will inject hundreds of billions of dollars into our treasury and use that money to benefit American citizens."

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris also maintains a tough stance on China. Harris's campaign website states that she “will not tolerate unfair trade practices from China or any competitor that harms American workers' interests.” Many believe that if Harris is elected, the next U.S. administration’s trade policy toward China will also show no signs of easing.

During his first presidential term from 2017 to 2021, Trump initiated a trade war with China, imposing high tariffs on nearly $300 billion worth of Chinese imports. In retaliation, China imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. agricultural products like soybeans, beef, pork, wheat, corn, and sorghum.

Since 2018, China has been working to reduce its reliance on U.S. agricultural products by importing more grain from other countries, such as Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and Australia. According to Chinese customs data, China’s share of soybean imports from the U.S. has dropped from 40% in 2016 to 18% this year, while Brazil’s share has increased from 46% to 76%.

Traders and analysts say that in anticipation of heightened U.S.-China trade tensions after the election, Chinese buyers have increased their imports of agricultural products, including U.S. soybeans and corn, by 8% in the first nine months of this year. Barley purchases rose by 63%, and sorghum shipments surged by 86%. "This time it’s different. China’s stockpiles are sufficient to meet most needs," said a trader at an international grain and oilseed trading company in Singapore that sells to China. "This is their preparation in advance to avoid supply shocks and allow time to plan and adjust their purchasing direction."

Beijing has also approved genetically modified soybean and corn varieties to increase yields, although there are concerns about the impact of genetically modified crops on health and long-term productivity.

The CCP leader has also called for "plans to comprehensively deepen reforms" and for building "bridges" in global trade and diplomatic conflicts.

How will these bridges be built? At a ceremony marking the 70th anniversary of the CCP’s diplomatic guiding principle, the "Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence," Xi Jinping stated that China "will never follow the path of the strong bullying the weak," emphasizing the need to "promote the spirit of peaceful coexistence" and "expand institutional openness to create a more market-oriented, international business environment."

Clearly, the CCP is using the politically correct phrase "peaceful coexistence" to win favor with certain international allies, with "internationalization" meaning leveraging interests to sway countries that can be influenced, thereby expanding agricultural trade relationships with them.

Earlier this year, China’s trade relations with the European Union were extremely tense, as the EU’s 27 nations imposed additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. The EU accused Chinese automakers of disrupting the EU market with cheap, heavily subsidized electric cars.

Xi Jinping stated, "In an era of economic globalization, what we need are bridges for communication and smooth roads for cooperation." This statement reveals how anxious the CCP is about the trade war with the West, as it even seems like a plea cloaked in the guise of peace.

Indeed, since the summer of this year, the CCP has been making various preparations for all possible outcomes following the U.S. election. Unable to interfere directly, it is instead planning for the worst-case scenarios, adopting a more conciliatory approach in international relations. For example, it released Australian journalist Cheng Lei, stabilizing relations with Canberra, resumed informal nuclear talks with the U.S., agreed to debt restructuring deals with numerous creditor countries, and recently ceded a significant area of land to India to facilitate a meeting at the BRICS summit.

However, with the CCP’s wolf-warrior diplomacy and ambitions for global dominance unchanged, it remains to be seen whether this bridge will be built or if it will, like the Belt and Road Initiative, become an abandoned project or a shoddy "tofu-dreg" construction, making a laughingstock of China on the international stage. We’ll have to wait and see.