The Impact of the U.S. Election on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris (left) faces off against Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (right). (Photo composite by Xianglian Wu / Dajiyuan)

[People News] The CCP has always boasted internally about being independent and not influenced by any foreign country. In reality, they have always attached great importance to the influence of external relations on their internal affairs. This U.S. election once again proves this point. Moreover, as the CCP is now facing internal and external troubles, this importance has become even more evident.

To address China's severe economic downturn, the CCP is preparing to release trillions of yuan in stimulus measures. The timing is set for after the U.S. election. On one hand, the difficulties are urgent, while on the other hand, the outcome of the U.S. election is uncertain, with various so-called public opinion polls unclear. So, they chose to wait a few days after the election, making their intention to see the result very obvious.

The CCP certainly does not wish for Trump to be elected. However, the actions of Western politicians hint that Trump is likely to win. Even CCP experts cannot figure it out or predict it. What to do? They can only wait, but they can’t wait too long; circumstances won’t wait. So, they have no choice but to put aside their pride.

Speaking of which, the worst news for the CCP would be Trump, whom they dislike the most, taking office, along with a group of politicians sanctioned by the CCP. However, there’s nothing they can do; they can’t take drastic measures as they do with Chinese citizens, nor can they openly interfere with another country's election. They can only wait obediently. Pride might not be so important in the face of life and death.

Specific details may not be determined until after the new administration takes office and decides on personnel arrangements. However, the general trend is already quite clear: it is essentially the completion of Trump’s previous term’s policies—trade war. According to Trump himself, last time the resistance from the bureaucracy was too great, and he couldn’t fully implement his policy intentions. This also included his inexperience as a political newcomer, which allowed the bureaucracy to impede his policy execution.

After four years of reflection and planning, the goals are clearer, and the personnel more complete. This time, the measures might be tougher, and the scale larger. Although democratic politics focuses on the domestic economy, in the special case of the U.S., trade issues with China are precisely a major cause of domestic problems. If Trump’s administration does not focus on this primary issue, all other policies may be undermined or difficult to implement.

Therefore, regardless of which party is in power, addressing trade issues with China is a must to solve many domestic problems. The difference is that under Trump’s government, actions may be stronger, measures more specific, loopholes fewer, and results more apparent. Judging from his administration’s composition of mainly hardliners, this seems to be the case. Speculations and fantasies by so-called experts are unreliable.

The crisis-saving plans designed by Chinese scholars focus on saving the stock and real estate markets rather than consumption. No matter how much money is thrown at it, this plan cannot save China’s current economy. The current Chinese economy is one of consumption shortage. Without increasing consumption, economic salvation is impossible. So, why do they stick to such a misguided plan? The reason lies in decision-making by a few people.

Without solving political system reform or revolution, the economy cannot escape its dead end. On this issue, the theories of this year’s Nobel laureates in economics align with our long-held view. The political system, and even the social system, are the most important conditions for economic development. Without an economic system that benefits all people, long-term economic growth is impossible. Without a political system that represents the majority, an economy benefiting only a few cannot develop well.

Many scholars have proposed various solutions to insufficient consumption, but they have not been adopted. The reason lies in the political decision-making level, which does not match the taste and interests of the authoritarian politics of a few. Therefore, it cannot be implemented.

China’s political, economic, and social development has reached a crossroads. Whether it collapses or moves towards sustainable development depends on the realization of political democratization. Of course, political revolution or thorough reform is extremely difficult and requires the joint effort and sacrifice of all sectors of society.

(Adapted from Radio Free Asia)