On January 31, 2024, Dr. Yu Maochun, Director of the Hudson Institute's China Center, spoke at an event in Taiwan. (Song Biyun/Dajiyuan)
[November 16, 2024] American scholar Dr. Yu Maochun predicts that, at a strategic level, President-elect Donald Trump will maintain cordial surface relations with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader but will never consider him a genuine friend of the United States due to his consistent lack of trustworthiness.
Dr. Yu pointed out that the CCP has shown duplicity in its dealings with the U.S., notably during the COVID-19 pandemic and the U.S.-China trade agreement. He expects that while U.S.-China relations will not completely collapse, the U.S. will also never yield to Beijing.
With Trump’s victory, attention has turned to whether his "America First" agenda will escalate geopolitical tensions with China, trigger a second round of trade wars, and shape Trump’s approach to Xi Jinping.
Trump is set to take office again as U.S. president in January next year. During his campaign, he threatened to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Following his victory, foreign investors have swiftly withdrawn funds from Chinese stock index ETFs.
The Wall Street Journal cited a former U.S. trade official, who noted that since Trump’s win, Beijing has been carefully adjusting its policies to avoid further weakening already fragile international investor sentiment.
On Friday, November 15, at the APEC CEO Summit in Peru, Xi Jinping was represented by China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, who delivered a written speech on his behalf.
“Dividing an interdependent world is a regression in history,” Xi’s statement read.
Xi’s comments were reminiscent of his 2017 address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, which coincided with the start of Trump’s first term.
In the eight years since, Trump first imposed punitive tariffs on certain Chinese exports, followed by the Biden administration maintaining and extending those tariffs.
Tensions in U.S.-China Relations: The CCP as the Initiator
In an interview with the independent media outlet The Unseen Blog, Dr. Yu Maochun argued that the focus on which U.S. administration is in power is misplaced when analyzing U.S.-China relations.
“Whether U.S.-China relations improve depends entirely on what the CCP does,” he said. “The main factor causing tensions in U.S.-China relations is not the U.S.; it’s the CCP.”
Dr. Yu, who previously served as the chief advisor on China policy planning at the State Department during Trump’s presidency, emphasized that the trade war was not initiated by Trump but was a response to the CCP’s long-standing trade practices against the world.
“The CCP has imposed high tariffs on American goods entering China for a long time. Trump simply recognized this reality and responded in kind,” he explained.
He added, “If Beijing wants to improve relations with the world, it must change its policies. It cannot always assume that others are out to get them. They need to adopt a consistent approach.”
Trump and Xi’s Relationship
Dr. Yu described Xi Jinping as a highly vain individual who desires to present himself as a global leader directing the world. Trump, aware of this trait, played along, publicly emphasizing their good relationship.
“In reality, Trump knows that Xi is a dictator and harbors ill intent toward the United States,” Dr. Yu said.
“At a strategic level, Trump will handle his relationship with Xi Jinping amicably on the surface, but he will never regard Xi as a true friend of the U.S. because Xi is fundamentally untrustworthy,” Yu explained.
Regarding the CCP’s contradictory rhetoric, Yu summarized it succinctly:
“When you’re on good terms with them, they claim you’re smiling while harboring a hidden agenda. When you’re not on good terms, they accuse you of trying to contain China.”
Edited by Lin Yan
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