Lowering the Tone of Praise for Xi Jinping Sends a Signal

Image: A Chinese military canine and demolition unit conducting a security sweep at Tiananmen Square. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

[People News] There are currently differing views overseas regarding whether Xi Jinping's power is weakening. Some, based on various signs revealed by the military and official media since the Third Plenum in July, believe that Xi's control over the military has slipped, and his power within the Party is also waning. Others argue, citing phenomena such as Xi's dominant media presence, that he still firmly holds power. Based on my five months of tracking and analyzing Party and military media, I align more with the former perspective. A recent report from the CCP's Xinhua News Agency offers additional evidence.

On December 30, the Symposium on the Publication of the Outline for Studying Xi Jinping's Cultural Thought was held in Beijing. Li Shulei, a member of the CCP Central Politburo and head of the Central Propaganda Department, attended and delivered a speech, though the content of his speech was not reported. According to the report, attendees praised Xi's cultural thought as a "major achievement" of the CCP in adhering to the "Two Integrations" and advancing theoretical innovation. It was described as a "fundamental guide," providing "powerful ideological tools and a scientific action guide" for building a culturally strong nation.

Additionally, attendees emphasized using this symposium as an opportunity to better promote and study Xi's cultural thought, grasp its "significance and rich connotations," and consciously use it to "arm their minds and guide practice."

The attendees making these praises included officials from the Central Propaganda Department, relevant central departments, central propaganda and cultural units, propaganda departments of provincial, regional, and municipal CCP committees, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, as well as experts and scholars from the social sciences and theoretical circles. These individuals, steeped in the CCP’s rhetoric, are naturally capable of delivering statements they don't even believe themselves without batting an eye.

However, compared to previous symposiums on the publication of outlines for studying Xi's various thoughts, the tone of the attendees' praise this time was noticeably subdued. Furthermore, there is no information on what flattering remarks Li Shulei might have made, which is quite peculiar. So, where is this "lowered tone" specifically reflected? Let us first review how praise was expressed in the past.

In September 2021, the Symposium on the Publication of the Outline for Studying Xi Jinping's Diplomatic Thought was held, attended by State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, alongside officials from departments such as the Central Propaganda Department, the International Liaison Department, the Central Foreign Affairs Office, and the Central Party History and Documentation Research Institute, as well as representatives from Chinese diplomatic missions. According to reports, Wang Yi stated that since the 18th Party Congress, Xi Jinping, with "extraordinary theoretical courage, outstanding political wisdom, and profound global vision as a Marxist politician, thinker, and strategist," proposed a series of groundbreaking new ideas, new thoughts, and new strategies in foreign affairs, thereby forming Xi Jinping Diplomatic Thought. He described this thought as "an integral part of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, a significant theoretical achievement combining the basic principles of Marxism with the practice of major-power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics, and the concentrated expression of the Party Central Committee's governance and administration under Xi's core leadership in the realm of diplomacy."

Wang Yi's effusive praise for Xi reached an almost embarrassing level. He even outlined five points for understanding and applying Xi's diplomatic thought, each serving to flatter Xi further.

In November of the same year, the Symposium on the Publication of the Outline for Studying Xi Jinping's Legal Thought took place, organized by the Central Office for Comprehensive Rule of Law. The symposium emphasized that "in-depth learning, promotion, and implementation of Xi's legal thought should be a long-term and major political task." It declared Xi's legal thought to have "addressed significant issues in China's legal process in the 21st century, marked a new leap in Marxist legal theory, and is the fundamental guide and action framework for comprehensive rule of law in China." The meeting also stressed the need to strengthen the "Four Consciousnesses," bolster the "Four Confidences," and achieve the "Two Upholds."

In July 2022, the Symposium on the Publication of the Outline for Studying Xi Jinping's Economic Thought was held in Beijing, attended by He Lifeng, Party Secretary and Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, alongside officials from the Central Propaganda Department, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, and other key departments.

Reports stated that He Lifeng, like Wang Yi, lavished extravagant praise on Xi, asserting that Xi, with "the profound insight, sharp judgment, and theoretical creativity of a Marxist politician, thinker, and strategist," had proposed a series of new ideas, thoughts, and strategies on economic development, thus forming and developing Xi Jinping Economic Thought.

Similarly, in September 2022, the Symposium on the Publication of the Outline for Studying Xi Jinping's Thought on Ecological Civilization was held, attended by officials such as Sun Jinlong, Party Secretary of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and Huang Runqiu, Minister of Ecology and Environment.

The report described Xi's ecological civilization thought as a major achievement of "integrating the basic principles of Marxism with the practice of China's ecological civilization construction and with China's outstanding traditional ecological culture." It was labeled as "the fundamental guide and action framework for building an ecological civilization in the new era, with significant political, theoretical, historical, practical, and global implications."

Compared to these previous symposiums, the tone of the report on the Symposium on the Publication of the Outline for Studying Xi Jinping's Cultural Thought is noticeably more subdued. It merely mentions the "Two Integrations" in passing as the origin of Xi's cultural thought and does not describe it as part of "Xi Jinping Thought."

It's worth noting that at the symposium on studying and implementing Xi Jinping's cultural thought in 2023, Xi's confidant, Cai Qi, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and Secretary of the Central Secretariat, delivered a speech that lavished excessive praise on Xi's cultural thought. Cai emphasized the importance of deeply understanding the "Two Establishes" and resolutely achieving the "Two Upholds." At that time, Li Shulei presided over the meeting, so he is undoubtedly familiar with this rhetorical framework.

Did Li Shulei offer flattering remarks in his recent speech? One possibility is that he did, but the official report omitted them. Another possibility is that he did not. If he did, why would the official report exclude them? If Xi's power remains unchallenged, would such a situation occur? If Li did not make such remarks, why not? Similarly, if Xi still holds absolute power, would this scenario arise?

Thus, as analyzed before, Xi’s power has indeed weakened. He is likely being constrained by some force, which is very likely the retired elders of the CCP. As a result, the internal CCP reports have toned down their praises for Xi. Given Xi's personality, it is improbable that he would voluntarily lower the tone of flattery amid a power crisis. At present, Xi may still appear to be in the limelight, but who can guarantee that there won’t be a sudden political upheaval within the CCP by 2025? 

(Original publication by People News)