Xi Jinping to Visit Russia in May — Spotlight on U.S.-Russia-China Triangle

On the afternoon of May 16, 2024, Putin (front left) attended a concert in Beijing commemorating the 75th anniversary of China-Russia (Soviet) diplomatic relations. His gaze was unfocused on the performance, appearing deep in thought. Putin's body also leaned slightly away from Xi Jinping (front right, second from the right).

[People News] On April 1, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a surprise visit to Russia, where he declared in Moscow that China and Russia would be “friends for generations, never enemies” and that they would “always be friends.” He also revealed that Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to visit Russia in May. As Trump and Putin continue to maintain communication and U.S.-Russia relations show signs of normalization, China’s recent moves have sparked speculation that the U.S. and Russia may team up to isolate the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and that Putin might ultimately betray Xi Jinping.

Since Trump took office as U.S. President in January, relations between the U.S. and Russia have shown signs of easing. On March 18, following a more than two-hour conversation between Trump and Putin, both leaders agreed that “this conflict must end with lasting peace.” They emphasized the importance of improving bilateral relations and agreed to begin ceasefire efforts in the areas of energy and infrastructure, as well as to hold technical talks regarding a ceasefire in the Black Sea region, all aiming for a comprehensive ceasefire and permanent peace. These talks are set to begin immediately in the Middle East, with Putin quickly issuing relevant orders to the Russian military.

According to a White House statement, the two leaders also discussed the Middle East as a potential area for cooperation to prevent future conflicts. They further emphasized the need to halt the proliferation of strategic weapons and expressed a willingness to work with other nations to ensure this effort gains the broadest possible support. Trump and Putin agreed that improving future U.S.-Russia bilateral relations could lead to significant potential, including major economic cooperation agreements and increased geopolitical stability.

Russian news agency TASS reported that Trump and Putin agreed to stay in contact regarding all discussed issues, demonstrating both countries' commitment to ending the war in Ukraine and to future collaboration. Putin’s envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, also posted on the social media platform X, stating: “Today, the world is a safer place thanks to the leadership of Presidents Putin and Trump!”

TASS also revealed that during the meeting, Putin proposed holding a hockey game between players from the U.S. National Hockey League (NHL) and Russia’s Kontinental Hockey League (KHL). Trump reportedly expressed support for the idea.

Against this backdrop, Wang Yi’s sudden trip to Russia and his remarks echoing phrases like “unlimited cooperation” and “true friendship” have raised eyebrows. Putin stated that he looks forward to Xi Jinping attending the “80th Anniversary of World War II Victory” celebration on May 9. Many observers believe Xi is almost certain to attend, given that, in the aftermath of WWII, the CCP managed to expel the Nationalist government to Taiwan thanks in part to the Japanese invasion, Soviet assistance, and the surrender of Japanese troops in Korea under Soviet control. However, given the tangled dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and evolving U.S.-Russia ties, it remains unclear whether China and Russia are truly “real friends” or merely strategic partners of convenience.

Uncertain Outlook for Ukraine Ceasefire Talks: Is the U.S. Trying to Woo Russia and Undermine China-Russia Ties? According to a report by the South China Morning Post, during his recent meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Xi Jinping would visit Russia in May as a "guest of honor", during which a high-level state visit will be held to discuss the current state of bilateral relations. In response, Wang Yi emphasized that China-Russia cooperation is not aimed at any third party and will not tolerate outside interference.

Following that meeting, on April 3, media reports revealed that the United States had imposed a 34% tariff increase on Chinese imports, raising the total tariff rate to 54%, the highest among all U.S. trade partners under Trump’s trade regime.

Addressing speculation that the improving U.S.-Russia relationship is a move to isolate China, Wang Yi dismissed such notions in an interview with Russia's TASS News Agency on Tuesday. He referred to the so-called "reverse Nixon strategy" as a leftover of Cold War thinking, asserting that the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership is "as solid as a rock."

The South China Morning Post also noted that Wang’s visit laid the groundwork for the upcoming "Xi-Putin summit", including talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Wang opened the meeting by referring to Lavrov as "my friend," and emphasized the frequent high-level exchanges between China and Russia. He noted that Xi and Putin had already held two rounds of strategic communication this year. Wang reaffirmed China’s (the CCP's) willingness to deepen cooperation with Russia. Lavrov responded by stating that Russia and China would continue close coordination through multilateral platforms such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Back on February 24, shortly after a meeting between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia regarding the Ukraine crisis, Xi Jinping held a phone call with Putin “at his request,” during which Putin briefed Xi on the latest developments in U.S.-Russia contacts and Russia's principled stance on the Ukraine crisis.

Observers widely believe that as U.S.-Russia relations continue to improve, the Kremlin is working to reassure Beijing and stabilize China-Russia relations.

However, as history shows, no evil force has eternal allies. The CCP is well aware of the near-conflicts it faced with both the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the anti-U.S., anti-revisionist campaigns of the 1960s. Today’s “real friends” may simply be temporary arrangements for the sake of regime survival and mutual benefit, constantly shifting with political winds. Humanity’s future holds no place for evil, and once this alliance of convenience collapses, it will turn to ashes, with no hope of returning fresh again.