Rumors of Power Shake-Up at CCP's Fourth Plenary Session Abound

March 10, 2025, Beijing Great Hall of the People—A security guard stands at the entrance before the closing ceremony of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. (WANG ZHAO/AFP via Getty Images)

[Dajiyuan] The Fourth Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) 20th Central Committee, originally expected in fall 2024, has been delayed until now. As China's economic difficulties worsen, rumours and predictions about Xi Jinping stepping down have emerged repeatedly. The latest claim alleges that CCP elders are collectively forcing Xi out, and a successor has already been arranged. However, external opinions differ—some suggest Xi may be the last ruler of the Communist regime.

Youngest Standing Committee Member Ding Xuexiang to Take Over the Hot Seat?

Independent political commentator Cai Shenkun revealed on May 6 via social media that he had received news from within China indicating that the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session will see major changes, said to be the result of political struggles among various factions. Amid the current domestic economic and international crises, and Xi's alleged illness, the party elders have reportedly lost patience and are collectively forcing Xi Jinping to step down. A new leadership list has supposedly been leaked.

According to the leak, First Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang will become General Secretary. Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Jining will become Premier. Current Premier Li Qiang will replace NPC Chairman Zhao Leji. Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing will take over Ding Xuexiang’s role as Executive Vice Premier.

On March 11, NPC Chairman Zhao Leji unexpectedly missed the closing session of the National People's Congress, officially citing a "respiratory infection," sparking speculation. He appeared in party media the next day, seemingly to quash rumours.

Cai stated that Ding Xuexiang only worked with Xi Jinping for six months before being appointed Director of the General Office and entering the Politburo, mainly due to his ties with the Jiang faction. Ding eventually gained Xi’s trust. Before the 20th Party Congress, the plan was for Ding to play the role now held by Cai Qi—overseeing party affairs, personnel, and ideology—as heir apparent. However, Xi later moved Ding to the State Council, reportedly due to dissatisfaction.

Cai claims that Ding and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong acted behind Xi’s back and reported on each other, causing Ding to lose his chance at becoming the fifth-ranking Politburo member and Wang to be excluded from the Politburo altogether.

Commentator Du Zheng, writing for Up Media, noted that Ding lacks experience in leading a region or managing the economy. His appointment as Executive Vice Premier was more akin to “forcing a duck onto a perch.”

Du believes that with China facing internal economic crisis and deteriorating global geopolitical conditions, Xi could face health issues under immense pressure. Xi's close circle, each with their own agendas, have been planning for succession. Ding reportedly hopes Xi will leave a “last will” naming him as successor, similar to Mao Zedong naming Hua Guofeng before his death.

Xi Jinping to Fully Step Down by 21st Party Congress?

Cai Shenkun says that though the Fourth Plenary Session is still months away, the CCP elders have reached a consensus for Xi Jinping to formally exit the political stage, handing over full power no later than the 21st Party Congress. Xi’s influence over military matters is reportedly already minimal.

After the 20th Congress, Xi’s faction has faced intense internal struggle. Dozens of senior generals and defence industry leaders have been purged, including former Defence Ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu. In November 2023, Xi's ally and Central Military Commission (CMC) member General Miao Hua was removed. After the 2024 NPC session, CMC Vice Chairman He Weidong disappeared from public view. Some analysts believe CMC Vice Chair Zhang Youxia, backed by party elders, is orchestrating a purge of Xi's forces.

Cai Shenkun speculates that following a collective power challenge against Xi Jinping, a compromise plan is likely. It may involve preserving some dignity for Xi, his family, or his loyal followers, allowing them to withdraw from the Chinese political stage in a relatively complete and honourable manner. Once a new leader takes over, new approaches will likely be adopted.

Yuan Hongbing, a legal scholar living in Australia, recently told Dajiyuan that three political factions within the Chinese system are now actively preparing to launch a political challenge against Xi Jinping. One group centres around Hu Deping (son of Hu Yaobang) and Liu Yuan (son of Liu Shaoqi). Another is led by Deng Pufang (son of Deng Xiaoping) and Chen Yuan (son of Chen Yun). The third faction consists of ultra-left Maoist hardliners. These three forces have reportedly reached a tacit understanding to carry out political manoeuvres aimed at blocking Xi Jinping from securing another term at the 21st Party Congress.

Former PLA Navy Lieutenant Commander Yao Cheng previously told Dajiyuan that by the time the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Party Congress convenes, Xi Jinping's position will certainly be untenable, and he will be left with only a symbolic post. Xi is expected to resign from his roles as General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, retaining only the ceremonial title of President, before stepping down entirely at the 21st Party Congress.

 

Hu Chunhua Reemerges — A Comeback for the Communist Youth League Faction?

Once considered a crown prince and Xi Jinping’s potential successor, Hu Chunhua, who was removed from the Politburo at the 20th Party Congress, has recently become active again. He has visited Anhui Province and also made diplomatic trips to multiple African countries.

Hu Chunhua is widely regarded as a representative figure of the Communist Youth League faction (Tuanpai), cultivated by former CCP General Secretary Hu Jintao.

Jiang Weiping, a former journalist with Hong Kong’s Wen Wei Po, speculated on his independent media channel that Hu Chunhua now has a high likelihood of rising to power and that his replacing Xi Jinping appears unstoppable.

A noteworthy development is the sudden rise of Shi Taifeng, former head of the United Front Work Department, who recently took over as head of the Organisation Department, deputy leader of the Central Inspection Team, and deputy leader of the CCP’s Party-Building Leading Group.

Cai Xia, a retired professor from the Central Party School, stated on X (Twitter) on May 6 that Shi Taifeng was promoted to vice president of the Central Party School in 2001, during the period when Hu Jintao (1992–2002) served as both a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and the president of the school—suggesting that Hu Jintao had a hand in Shi’s promotion.

Shi Taifeng is also an alumnus of the Peking University Law Department, where he reportedly studied alongside the late Premier Li Keqiang—possibly even as classmates.

Current affairs commentator Zhou Xiaohui believes Shi Taifeng’s transfer to the Organisation Department may reflect the need of the CCP elders to reassert control over the political landscape. In addition to military power, they seek to control media influence and personnel appointments.

U.S. Retired General: Xi Could Be the Last CCP Ruler

Kenji Nakazawa, senior writer for Nikkei Asia, wrote on January 16 that CCP factional struggles are intensifying, and as 2025 may determine the next leadership team, a major political storm is likely in Beijing.

Shu Rong, a Chinese doctor in the UK with deep knowledge of the I Ching, predicted in late 2023 that Xi Jinping would face heavy criticism in 2024 but not step down. However, by 2025, he may lose power and be replaced by someone from within the system who will begin to purge communist elements.

British psychic Craig Hamilton-Parker predicted that in 2025, he saw a “cloud of smoke” over China on the spiritual plane—possibly indicating civil war. He also felt something was wrong with Xi—possibly illness or internal resistance.

A former mainland Chinese journalist, Mr. Ai, told Dajiyuan that various factions within the CCP are waiting for a tipping point. He believes the only outcome is the regime's collapse, as a Leninist party cannot reform.

Retired U.S. Air Force General Blaine Holt recently wrote in Newsweek that the CCP is facing collapse, and Xi may be its last ruler.

Editor: Lin Congwen