This is a labour market in Guangzhou, where unemployment is rising. Many people are even pleading: "As long as there’s food to eat, it’s enough." (Screenshot from video)
[People News] While publicly claiming “5% growth,” China’s economy is showing signs of deterioration across multiple dimensions. Recently, several foreign media outlets and research institutions have pointed out that as economic difficulties deepen, authorities have adopted three main methods to conceal the true data: 1. Ceasing publication of key data, such as the youth unemployment rate, private fixed-asset investment, and details of monetary policy. 2. Altering data definitions, such as abruptly loosening the criteria for the narrow money supply (M1), making its year-on-year growth appear to “turn positive” from negative. 3. Directly manipulating data baselines, for example, by lowering last year’s consumption figures to create the illusion of a “rebound” this year.
I. Doubts Behind the “5% Growth Rate”
The statistics bureau announced a 5% GDP growth rate for 2024, but multiple economic indicators offer little support for this figure:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose only 0.2% for the year, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.2%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressure.
Fiscal revenues have declined, investment is sluggish, and unemployment remains high—all inconsistent with strong growth.
Consumer spending in cities like Shanghai and Beijing declined in Q1, yet official data paradoxically claims a nationwide consumption increase of 4.6%.
If the economy were truly growing at 5%, there would be signs such as rising tax revenue, active investment, and improving employment, but none of these are present.
II. A Wave of Unemployment Combined with Local Fiscal Crises
While the government reports a 5.2% urban unemployment rate, the youth unemployment rate has reached 16.5%. Multiple institutions believe the actual situation may be even worse:
Nomura estimates that 5.7 million people could lose their jobs in the short term, with long-term unemployment potentially exceeding 15.8 million.
Local government debt may have surpassed 100% of GDP, with fiscal sustainability rapidly deteriorating.
Exports are faltering, especially exports to the U.S., which are hindered by high tariffs and blocked indirect export routes.
III. Manufacturing Decline and Rising Social Unrest
In many regions, manufacturing firms are reportedly laying off workers frequently, and worker protests are on the rise. According to data from Freedom House, the number of strikes in Q3 2024 increased by 27% year-over-year, often involving wage disputes and social tensions.
IV. External Observations: China May Be Entering Long-Term Decline
A reporter from Switzerland’s Neue Zürcher Zeitung based in China noted that the country’s engine, as the “world’s factory”, is showing signs of fatigue, with southern industrial zones now appearing deserted. Observers believe these are signs of a long-term economic downturn.
Zhao Xiao comments: “Behind the silence of the numbers is the roar of reality. Superficial growth cannot hide deep recession. Without facing the problems, there can be no true reform or recovery.”
(Translated from “Yunshang Canaan”)
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