Li Keqiang Model or Huairentang Model? Xi Jinping’s Life Hangs by a Thread

On October 27, 2023, a large screen on a street in Beijing displays the obituary of Li Keqiang. (Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images)

[People News] The brutality of power struggles within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) often exceeds what ordinary people can imagine. The rumoured suicide of He Hongjun, Executive Deputy Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission (CMC), has escalated the internal battle over Xi Jinping’s possible resignation to a new and bloodier climax. What Xi faces next is not merely a question of whether he will step down, but whether he can land safely, or even survive.

On May 19, independent commentator Cai Shenkun posted on X (formerly Twitter) that, according to a source in Beijing, General He Hongjun committed suicide while in custody of the CMC’s Discipline Inspection Commission. Despite emergency efforts at the 301 Military Hospital, he died in the afternoon of May 18.

The outside world generally believes He Hongjun was a close military ally of Xi Jinping. Former Chinese journalist Zhao Lanjian reported on April 24 that He was taken into custody on April 20. Less than a month later, he was dead—evidence of the intense and merciless nature of the infighting.

In 2017, then-Director of the General Political Department Zhang Yang committed suicide at home. In 2019, Ren Xuefeng, Deputy Party Secretary of Chongqing, fell to his death from a building at the Jingxi Hotel; he was only 54. The CCP claimed he died of an illness. In 2022, Tianjin Mayor Liao Guoxun was said to have died from a sudden illness, though it was in fact suicide. In 2023, former Deputy Commander of the Rocket Force Wu Guohua committed suicide in the bathroom of his third-floor home, and the CCP did not officially announce his death. Qin Gang, former foreign minister, is rumoured to have been executed at the 301 Hospital—his whereabouts remain unknown, neither seen alive nor confirmed dead.

There are typically two conditions behind these so-called suicides among top CCP or military officials: 1) they are cornered in power struggles, and 2) they have a degree of personal freedom that allows the act of suicide to take place. Of course, there’s a strong possibility that many were actually killed rather than committed suicide.

If He Hongjun is indeed dead, the most likely explanation is that he was eliminated by Zhang Youxia—not a suicide but a staged killing. It's extremely difficult for detainees in ordinary detention centres to commit suicide, let alone in the tightly controlled detention cells of the military disciplinary commission. Suicide is virtually impossible.

It is also unlikely that He died due to torture. In ancient China, even the gruesome death by a thousand cuts required executioners to keep the victim alive for hundreds of incisions. Today, with advanced technology and the CCP's expertise in coercive methods, interrogators are under strict orders to keep suspects alive and are assisted by medical teams. Unless there’s still a Xi loyalist inside the disciplinary commission who deliberately botched the interrogation, such an outcome is highly unlikely.

So why would Zhang Youxia kill He Hongjun? Two reasons: to make an example and to send a warning.

Zhang is reportedly holding a long list of Xi Jinping’s loyalists: CMC Vice Chairman He Weidong, Political Work Department Director Miao Hua, People’s Armed Police Commander Wang Chunning, Political Commissar Zhang Hongbing, and CMC Political and Legal Affairs Commission Secretary Wang Renhua. If any of them refuse to cooperate, they will suffer the same fate as He Hongjun. This is a lethal warning to others still on the blacklist. This is what’s called “killing the chicken to scare the monkeys.”

The warning also extends to the highest levels, pointed directly at the imperial palace. If Xi dares to resist or launch a counterattack, Zhang Youxia is ready to draw his sword. The military is now fully under Zhang’s control. Xi is completely isolated in the CMC. The "iron triangle" of Zhang Youxia, Zhang Shengmin, and Liu Zhenli now holds total power. Zhang Shengmin has reportedly taken over the Political Work Department, and Peng Liyuan, Xi’s wife, is said to have been stripped of military influence. Beijing’s garrison is now controlled by Zhang Youxia’s trusted aide, Fu Wenhua. Another of his confidants, Cao Junzhang, is rumoured to have taken over as acting commander of the Armed Police.

Rumours are circulating that the CCP held an expanded Politburo meeting on May 14 focused on deposing Xi and discussing post-Xi power arrangements. Historically, such expanded meetings have marked power reshuffles and directional shifts in Party and state policy. For example, the 1935 Zunyi Conference established Mao Zedong’s leadership. The 1950s expanded meetings gave institutional backing to Mao’s Korean War intervention, land reform, and political purges; The 1980s meetings under Deng Xiaoping defined reform and opening up and led to the second historical resolution repudiating Maoist ideology.

The May 14 expanded meeting reportedly listed 12 major offences committed during Xi Jinping’s tenure. However, whether Xi would partially or fully step down remains unresolved. Nor has a successor been chosen. Nonetheless, Xi’s departure now seems to be a foregone conclusion.

Independent journalist Xiao Shuojia revealed that domestic sources say Xi agreed to fully step down, on the condition that he could appoint his successor. But this was rejected by both Hu Jintao and Zhang Youxia. Within days, the news of He Hongjun’s "suicide" broke. This move appears to be a tactic by Hu and Zhang to force Xi into unconditional, total resignation.

We cannot verify the truth of these reports, but it’s notable and suspicious that Xi rushed to pray at White Horse Temple and visit the Longmen Grottoes on May 19, the day after He Hongjun’s death. He was accompanied only by He Lifeng—Cai Qi, Xi’s top aide, was notably absent.

Earlier, Cai Shenkun relayed insider reports that actual power had already shifted to a triumvirate of Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and Hu Deping. Xi's departure is said to be only a matter of formal announcement. Yet Xi is known to be obsessed with power and has made enemies of all Party factions. His hardline, leftist policies have crushed private enterprise, wrecked the economy, and incited public outrage. He understands well that once out of power, his life—and possibly his family’s—will be in danger.

Still, CCP politics is always a zero-sum game. If Xi clings to power, he may end up like Li Keqiang, who was officially declared to have died of sudden illness, or like the Gang of Four. At best, he might face a Zhao Ziyang-style lifelong house arrest.

Don’t celebrate too early—tomorrow, the reckoning may come. Xi’s obsession with power has locked him onto the purge list. He may indeed fulfil the prophecy of the "Iron Plate Map" and bring about his own downfall. He had a strong hand, but his determination to preserve the Party has led him down a path of no return. 

(Originally published by People News)