Cai Qi Turns Against Xi Jinping as Signs of Isolation Grow

Recently, Cai Qi has made three consecutive unusual moves, which seem to support rumours that Xi Jinping's power is being curtailed and that he may hand over authority at the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session. (Video screenshot)

[People News] In recent days, Cai Qi has made three highly unusual moves, seemingly supporting rumours that Xi Jinping’s power is being diminished and that he may relinquish authority at the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session.

According to independent political commentator Cai Shenkun, who broke the news on Platform X today, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Fourth Plenary Session is scheduled to be held in Beijing from August 27 to 30. In the lead-up to this meeting, several senior officials close to Xi, including members of his faction, have reportedly “encountered issues”—with He Weidong missing, He Hongjun allegedly committing suicide, and investigations opened into Wang Chunning (Commander of the People’s Armed Police), Zhang Hongbing (Political Commissar of the Armed Police), Wang Renhua (Secretary of the CMC Political and Legal Affairs Commission), and former Central Military Commission (CMC) General Office Director Fang Yongxiang. These incidents have sparked heated speculation about an anti-Xi faction staging a comeback and Xi potentially stepping down.

An Unusual Notice from the Central Office

Against this backdrop, the actions of Cai Qi, Director of the CCP General Office, who manages Xi Jinping’s personal safety and is a bellwether of internal power dynamics, have drawn intense scrutiny. On May 5, 2025, the Central Office issued a document titled “Notice on Preventing and Overcoming the Interference of Ultra-Left Ideology in Current Work.” The wording was sharp, directly criticising recent trends within the Party such as personality cults, formalism, and replacing development with constant political struggle. It denounced cadres who overly emphasised “struggle,” thereby disrupting central policies on economic and social development and harming the Party’s image. The notice called for the whole Party to recognise the dangers of ultra-leftist thinking and to correct the cult of personality.

Political observers noted that, as the General Office’s director, Cai Qi’s issuance of this document implicitly targets Xi Jinping’s ideology of “struggle” and his central role in recent years. Phrases such as “supreme authority,” “final word,” and warnings against “reviving Cultural Revolution-style practices” point directly to Xi’s political dominance and ideological control.

This is especially notable given that Cai Qi himself was instrumental in promoting this propaganda in the first place. He was widely seen as Xi’s “chief steward” and a key figure in the inner circle. That his office would now publish such a critical document has deeply puzzled many observers. The most plausible explanation is that Cai, often described as opportunistic, has read the political winds: with Party elders, princelings, and military elites reportedly uniting against Xi, along with growing internal and external pressures and rumours of Xi’s health issues, his power may truly be slipping. In that case, Cai Qi may have no choice but to switch sides.

Is this possibility real? Public understanding of Cai Qi mostly comes from analysing various open sources. When Cai Qi was in charge of Beijing, he pushed for the clearing out of so-called “low-end population,” which sparked public backlash, especially among intellectuals, who often criticised him as "ruthless and merciless," willing to provoke mass outrage among the proletariat just to please the "Supreme One." Later, after becoming Xi's chief steward, he promoted slogans like “Xi as the core,” “the helmsman,” “the one and only,” and called for Xi Jinping Thought to be deeply ingrained in everyone’s mind. Many observers believe that this is a man capable of doing anything.

Study Session on Xi’s Writings Downgraded

Another abnormal incident occurred on May 6, when a study seminar on Volume 1 of Xi Jinping’s Selected Economic Writings opened. Politburo Standing Committee member and Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang attended and gave the keynote speech, with Organisation Department head Shi Taifeng presiding and Central Party School President Chen Xi also in attendance. Notably, Cai Qi was absent. In previous years, from 2017 to 2023, similar seminars on Xi’s writings or thought were attended and led by the Standing Committee member in charge of ideology—in this case, Cai Qi. For instance, he personally attended the 2023 forum on Xi’s Selected Works Volumes 1 and 2.

Furthermore, state media reports on the May 6 seminar emphasised the importance of “the Party Central Committee’s unified leadership and the people-centred approach.” Ding Xuexiang mentioned “centralised leadership” twice, but made no mention of “the core” (a euphemism for Xi). Commentator Zhou Xiaohui believes this may signal that a new central leadership is quietly revising parts of Xi’s economic policies, hinting that Xi has lost control over economic policy.

That the seminar was attended only by Ding, ranked sixth among the Standing Committee, suggests it was deliberately downgraded. Analysts speculate this might reflect limitations on Cai Qi’s participation in certain events, or perhaps it was a strategic move by the new leadership, or even a signal of Cai Qi’s willingness to distance himself. U.S.-based political commentator Chen Pokong speculated on social media that Cai Qi may step down at the Fourth Plenary Session. If the Politburo Standing Committee is reshuffled and Xi himself steps down as General Secretary, Cai’s exit would likely follow.

Xi and Cai Make Separate Inspections

The third anomaly came between May 16 and 17, when Xi Jinping made an inspection tour of Luoyang, Henan Province. Strikingly, Cai Qi did not accompany him. Instead, He Lifeng and Liu Ning were present. Historically, Cai has always accompanied Xi on such tours, as he is responsible for a wide range of logistical, security, and personal affairs. But during those same days, Cai Qi was instead conducting a separate inspection tour in Tangshan, Hebei Province—suggesting a public rupture between him and Xi. It is a major taboo in Chinese politics for a subordinate to act as if on equal footing with the top leader. Moreover, in his Tangshan speech, Cai only mentioned “General Secretary Xi Jinping” once, and did not mention “Xi Jinping Thought,” “Two Upholds,” or “Two Establishes”—all of which are usually standard phrases. This would have been unthinkable in the past.

Analysts say that if Cai Qi, Xi’s right-hand man, is indeed wavering, Xi’s grip on power is in serious jeopardy. It’s possible Cai is simply following the directives of Party elders and the “new Central Committee,” acting pragmatically to avoid being crushed under political pressure.

There are also reports that Cai Qi’s shift has caused others to further distance themselves from Xi. The remaining five members of the Politburo Standing Committee—Ding Xuexiang, Zhao Leji, Li Xi, Li Qiang, and Wang Huning—are all said to be keeping their distance from Xi. Rumors suggest Ding may replace Xi as General Secretary at the Fourth Plenary; Zhao has deep connections with the Jiang faction; Li Xi is reportedly working with the military to purge Xi’s loyalists; Li Qiang is tired of being scapegoated; and Wang Huning is said to be preparing a post-Xi leadership framework. All this suggests Xi’s faction is collapsing, and an anti-Xi coalition is quickly forming.

On the CCP Foreign Ministry website, Xi Jinping still dominates the headlines—but only with minor, ceremonial items: sending congratulations to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, condolence letters to the Uruguayan president, congratulating the new leader of Togo, and so on. In other words, irrelevant tasks with no real substance.

Still, some analysts caution that even if Xi steps down at the Fourth Plenary Session, the CCP’s systemic problems won’t be solved. The disaster for China will persist unless the entire authoritarian one-party system, founded on atheism and brutal repression, is dismantled. China’s true path forward lies in ending one-party dictatorship and establishing a free, civilised society with genuine autonomy. Only when all Chinese people awaken and tear down the ideological walls that have deformed their humanity can the nation achieve real transformation. 

(Original article published by People News)