Will Xi Jinping Still Be President When Putin Visits China in Late August?

Putin at Saint Petersburg, September 12, 2024. (Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via REUTERS)

[People News] Recently, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang visited Russia to attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. On June 20, Ding met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Regarding this meeting, Russia's news agency TASS quoted Chinese state media's coverage, which featured Ding's name prominently in headlines like “Ding Xuexiang Meets with Russian President Putin.” In contrast, TASS mentioned the meeting only briefly under broader coverage about Putin's comments on Russia-China relations, without highlighting Ding. Clearly, from the Russian perspective, a meeting between their president and a Chinese vice premier is not one of equals, and their editorial choices reflect that.

In TASS’s report, Putin said, “Despite ongoing difficulties, some of which are artificially created, Russia-China relations are developing steadily and confidently across various fields… There is no doubt that Russia-China relations are a strong factor of global stability.” He also referred to Chinese President Xi Jinping as “a close friend of Russia” and confirmed he had accepted Xi’s invitation to visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit and the 80th anniversary of China’s victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan (WWII).

However, Chinese media focused instead on Putin asking Ding Xuexiang to convey his sincere greetings to Xi and his willingness to further strengthen practical cooperation with China. They also reported Putin’s anticipation of attending the SCO summit in Tianjin and the WWII anniversary commemorations but did not mention that he was officially invited by Xi or that a Xi-Putin meeting would occur.

Previously, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters that Putin plans to visit China from August 31 to September 3 to attend the SCO summit, the 80th anniversary of China’s WWII victory, and other related events, including a full bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping.

Interestingly, the day before Putin met with Ding—on June 19—he had a phone call with Xi. According to Chinese state media, the main topic was the situation in the Middle East. But according to TASS, the conversation lasted about an hour and also included the following: The two leaders will meet again at the SCO summit in China between late August and early September. A full bilateral meeting will take place in Beijing on September 2. China and Russia will cooperate in addressing Middle East issues. Putin shared grievances from the G7 summit in Canada.

From the information released by Putin and Russian sources, it’s evident that although they are aware Xi Jinping effectively lost power some time ago, Putin still plans to meet with Xi—as the official head of state—during his August visit to China. Why?

Mounting evidence has long indicated that since rumours of Xi Jinping suffering a stroke surfaced after the CCP’s Third Plenum in July last year, there have been major shifts within the top leadership in Beijing. Signs include: toned-down propaganda about Xi in state media, many of Xi's loyalists in the Party and military being purged, disappearing from public view, or being placed under restrictions, as well as unusual behaviours from senior officials and Party elders. All these point to the very real likelihood that Xi has lost power—a fact already known to many countries, including in the West and Russia.

Previously, overseas sources claimed the CCP might replace its top leader during the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee, with Xi possibly stepping down as General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Analysts expect the Fourth Plenum to be held around mid-to-late August.

So the question is: When Putin visits China, will he still meet with Xi?

Technically, yes. According to China’s constitution, the National People’s Congress (NPC) has the authority to remove the president. Such removal requires a vote with a majority approval from all NPC deputies.

In other words, even if Xi were to lose his positions as General Secretary and CMC Chairman at the Fourth Plenum, he would technically remain President and Chairman of the State Military Commission until the next NPC session in March 2026—unless the current ruling group decides to accelerate the process and bypass standard procedure.

Therefore, there is still a possibility that Putin will meet with Xi during his visit. It is also possible that Putin could meet both Xi and his successor. The CCP’s deliberate omission of details about a potential Xi-Putin meeting is likely an effort to avoid revealing leadership changes to the public too early. But with rumours flying everywhere, how long can they keep the lid on?

(Originally published by People News)