Beidaihe Meeting Brewing Personnel Arrangements — Who Will Survive the Fourth Plenum?

Dark clouds hang over Tiananmen Square in Beijing. (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

[People News]  In early August, nearly all of the CCP’s top leadership headed to Beidaihe for their annual “work-vacation.” Numerous reports suggest that this year’s Beidaihe meeting will serve as the backstage venue for major senior personnel decisions, with the announcements at the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session being little more than a formality.

On August 3, CCP state media revealed that Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi had visited experts on summer vacation in Beidaihe — confirming that the leadership had entered the annual “Beidaihe season.”

According to Party tradition, senior leaders — including some retired figures — maintain the arrangement of collectively vacationing in Beidaihe from late July to early August.

An article by Yang Danxu in Lianhe Zaobao noted that during the retreat, the top leadership exchanged views on major issues. Before “elder politics” and factional politics fade completely, the Beidaihe discussions still function as a process for information exchange, interest coordination, and compromise-building. Even under Xi Jinping’s centralisation of power, Beidaihe still plays a role in unifying the Party’s internal stance.

The author expects that this year’s discussions will inevitably revolve around the U.S.–China trade war, the state of China’s economy, and the upcoming Fourth Plenum.

The third round of U.S.–China trade talks concluded last week in Stockholm, Sweden. After the closed-door meetings, no joint statement was issued, but it is widely believed that the core issue remains whether to extend the current tariff suspension for another 90 days. If so, the new grace period would last until November 10. U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant also noted that final approval for the extension would rest with President Trump.

In addition, Besant expressed hope that China would openly state in its next Five-Year Plan its goal of transforming its economy into a consumption-driven one.

Since the end of the pandemic, China’s consumption has been recovering only slowly. Boosting domestic consumption has become a key pillar of the CCP’s economic strategy. Since last year, Beijing has rolled out heavy national subsidies to encourage purchases of home appliances, smartphones, and other electronics, aiming to stimulate spending and reduce reliance on foreign markets.

At the same time, China faces severe overcapacity problems. Competition between manufacturers is fierce, profits are being squeezed, and Beijing has even called for opposition to “involution-style competition” — a concept that became an economic policy buzzword after this year’s Two Sessions.

The author notes that the gap between China and the U.S. on tariffs remains large, and the deeper the talks go, the harder the issues become. The future of the trade war remains a “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the Chinese economy.

The author lists other serious economic problems: the uncertainty of tariff talks combined with front-loaded exports in the first half of the year will likely cause foreign trade to decline; domestic demand may not sustain after the expiration of “trade-in” subsidy programs; the intractable real estate market is still in a downward search for a bottom; and new industries are too weak to replace old growth drivers. Beijing’s top leadership is believed to be deeply worried about the economy.

The author observes that the Fourth Plenum, scheduled for October, will likely also address major personnel matters — some of which could be discussed in Beidaihe.

There are still unresolved personnel cases:

Ma Xingrui stepped down over a month ago as CCP Xinjiang Party Secretary with the vague note of being “assigned to another post,” but the new position remains a mystery.

Miao Hua, dismissed from his post in the Central Military Commission (CMC) last November, has yet to have his investigation results and disciplinary decisions publicly announced.

CMC Vice Chairman and Politburo member He Weidong has been absent from public view for nearly five months. If he has indeed fallen, as speculation suggests, the case is being kept under an airtight information seal.

The author believes that if He Weidong is indeed in deep trouble, his case — along with Miao Hua’s — could be formally revealed before the Fourth Plenum.

Independent commentator Du Zheng wrote on July 27 in Taiwan’s Up Media that Evergrande chairman Xu Jiayin has handed over a long list of implicated CCP officials. From former Guizhou Party Secretary Sun Zhigang, to former Justice Minister Tang Yijun, to former Hubei Party Secretary Jiang Chaoliang — their downfalls, Du says, trace back to Xu Jiayin.

Now, Ma Xingrui’s sudden loss of position, Xi ally Chen Min’er, and Yin Li (currently Beijing Party Secretary, previously Sichuan Deputy Party Secretary and Governor) are all reportedly on Xu’s list. Du calls Xu Jiayin a “Molotov cocktail” in the CCP political arena, predicting that many more officials will be dismissed or demoted.

Thus, there is no shortage of officials facing grim prospects.

Currently, with former Defence Minister Li Shangfu already purged, and Miao Hua and He Weidong both in limbo, the CMC has shrunk from seven members to four. Observers widely expect that the Fourth Plenum will need to elect a new CMC vice chairman. If He Weidong falls, the Politburo — now down from its full 25 members to 24 — may also need an unusual by-election.

The author speculates that the Fourth Plenum could bring adjustments such as promoting CMC members Liu Zhenli or Zhang Shengmin to vice chairmanship; elevating current Defence Minister Dong Jun to CMC membership; or filling the vacant Politburo seat — all of which would be focal points of the session.

In reality, the biggest personnel question for both Beidaihe and the Fourth Plenum is whether Xi Jinping will stay or go. Opinions differ. But on August 4, during the Jiangyou anti-repression incident in Sichuan — where police used fists and pepper spray against citizens protesting the bullying of a 14-year-old girl — people cried out from the depths of their hearts: “Xi Jinping step down!” and “Communist Party step down!” Perhaps that is already the best answer. △