If Kim Jong-un Falls, Kim Ju-ae’s Status May Not Hold — Kim Yo-jong Could Take Over

Kim Jong-un departed from Beijing to return to his country on the evening of the 4th. (Video screenshot)

[People News] Recently, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited Beijing to attend a military parade, bringing along his daughter Kim Ju-ae. Analysts believe this signals that Kim Ju-ae has been designated as Kim Jong-un’s successor. Others, however, point out that as Kim Jong-un’s sister Kim Yo-jong increasingly steps in to represent him, she could also become “the next card of the Kim regime” if Kim were to fall.

On September 11, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) held a closed-door parliamentary intelligence committee meeting. Regarding Kim Jong-un’s Beijing visit with his daughter, the NIS assessed it as: “part of a narrative to pave the way for Kim Ju-ae’s hereditary succession” and “intended to give her overseas exposure to strengthen her status as heir.” However, Kim Ju-ae did not attend formal meetings or interact with senior Chinese officials.

The “other woman” by Kim Jong-un’s side is his sister, Kim Yo-jong. When she appeared on September 4, although she did not participate in summit talks or official activities, she nonetheless displayed her status as the “number two figure.” CNN reported that wire photos showed Kim Yo-jong seated at a table in a large banquet hall. She wore a black headband, a white blouse, and a dark purple jacket pinned with the golden emblem of the Workers’ Party of Korea — a hammer, a sickle, and a calligraphy brush. The Kremlin video also showed her attending a reception.

Deutsche Welle reported that former North Korean military officer Ahn Chan-il judged Kim Jong-un’s appearance at the September 3rd parade as showing poor health, perhaps prompting him to accelerate succession planning. Kim previously underwent heart stent surgery, and his obesity and profuse sweating were on display during the parade. Observers widely believe he is unlikely to live past 50, at most ruling another 10 years.

Professor Howell, an international relations expert at Oxford University, said: “By bringing his daughter to Beijing, Kim Jong-un is signalling to the South Korean public and the international community that the Kim dynasty will not disappear.” He stressed: “Whether the successor is his daughter, his sister, or another child, power will ultimately be passed down within the bloodline.”

The joint appearances of Kim Ju-ae and Kim Yo-jong reignited discussion over succession. Kim Ju-ae is estimated to be around 12 or 13, meaning she is at least a decade away from joining the Workers’ Party and assuming public office. By then, Kim Jong-un would be nearing 50, and whether his health can last is uncertain. The NIS previously speculated that he also has a son, though this has never been verified.

If Kim Jong-un were to suddenly lose power before his daughter matures, the newly created post of “First Secretary” could serve as a regent, and the strongest candidate is Kim Yo-jong. According to Shūkan Bunshun (Weekly Bunshun), Kim Ju-ae’s presence in Beijing was not meant as a debut to China, but rather as an internal signal within North Korea: she is the “designated heir.” At the same time, Kim Yo-jong’s appearance served to remind outsiders that if a power vacuum emerges, she remains the most viable alternative.

Over the years, Kim Yo-jong’s influence in North Korean politics has steadily risen. Since 2014, she has managed the Workers’ Party’s propaganda apparatus, building up her brother’s cult of personality. In 2018, she served as a special envoy to South Korea’s PyeongChang Winter Olympics, becoming the first member of the Kim family to set foot in the South. In 2021, she was promoted to the State Affairs Commission and has repeatedly issued public statements on foreign affairs, such as whether North Korea was open to dialogue with the United States. Once the quiet younger sister holding an ashtray behind her brother, she has moved to the front stage. Increasingly, she speaks in his stead: denouncing Seoul, threatening Washington, her tone calm but cutting.

SETN (Sanli News, Taiwan) described Kim Yo-jong as ruthless and terse: “If you stood just a few steps away from her in a Pyongyang conference hall, you would feel a chilling pressure. She doesn’t need to say much, or even raise her voice. Just lifting her gaze and sweeping her cold eyes across the room is enough to silence everyone.” Kim Yo-jong has already become one of the most powerful women in North Korea.

How ruthless is Kim Yo-jong?

In October 2024, two residents of Haeju, South Hwanghae Province, drunkenly complained about state affairs, criticising Kim Yo-jong’s harsh words regarding a South Korean drone incident. One even muttered, “I don’t want to see some skirt-wearing woman acting so arrogant. What do women know?”

The next day, the two men and their families were secretly arrested and never heard from again. Neighbours were terrified; no one dared say another word. Local rumours held they were likely sent to a political prison camp or exiled to remote mountains. The chill lingered in the community.

In 2015, photos of a ring on Kim Yo-jong’s left ring finger confirmed she was married. South Korean intelligence initially suggested her husband was Choe Song, a financial official in the Party, but later a defector diplomat, Ryu Hyun-woo, revealed he had seen her husband in 2014: a tall, handsome man about 180 cm in military uniform, once serving as deputy director in the General Political Bureau’s Organisation Department. The two reportedly met while attending courses at Kim Il-sung University. Their wedding was extremely low-profile, with virtually no images released.

On January 1 this year, Korean Central Television aired a recording of the previous night’s New Year celebration performance. Footage showed Kim Yo-jong carrying a handbag and holding the hands of a boy and a girl as they entered May Day Stadium. Observers speculated they were her children. The NIS had already noted in 2015 that she was pregnant with her first child, and in 2018, she was believed to have given birth to a second. The appearance of this pair of siblings on camera fueled speculation.

Although it cannot be confirmed that the two children are Kim Yo-jong’s biological offspring, the fact that senior cadres attended the event with their families suggests they likely are.

The UK Mirror reported that since South Korea has never had a female head of state, some experts speculate that Kim Yo-jong’s son — Kim Jong-un’s nephew — might become the next national leader, being the only known male of the next generation.

Michael Madden, founder of North Korea Leadership Watch, argued that the role of state leader will only ever be entrusted to someone from the bloodline of North Korea’s founder, Kim Il-sung.

Madden said, “Because of this event, we now know without doubt that Kim Yo-jong has a son. This means she has produced a legitimate male heir for the Paektusan revolutionary bloodline. We don’t know if Kim Jong-un really has a son — there’s no reliable intelligence to confirm it. But Kim Yo-jong does, and considering the family lineage, he is certainly a viable candidate for hereditary succession. This belies the notion that Kim Ju-ae is the heir.”

The Mirror added that rumours have circulated that Kim Jong-un’s first child was a boy, though he has never been seen publicly. Madden, however, still believes Kim Ju-ae remains the most likely successor: “I still think Kim Ju-ae is the frontrunner, and most certainly there is room for a female leader in North Korea. But with Kim Yo-jong’s child, at the very least, we now have two people who will become part of the top elite and future senior officials of the regime. This shows that the regime is signalling these individuals are the future elite of North Korea.”  △