U.S.-China Trade Negotiations: The CCP Is at Its Wits’ End

U.S.-China trade and economic talks at Santa Cruz Palace in Madrid 

[People News] On September 14–15, the U.S. and Chinese delegations held a new round of economic and trade negotiations in Spain. As usual, Trump revealed the progress of the talks in advance. One outcome of this round was that both sides reached a framework agreement on TikTok. In order to secure Trump’s visit to China within the year, the CCP must have made concessions. After the Beijing military parade, Zhongnanhai seemed more eager to ease relations with the U.S. Russia, however, probably did not provide the CCP with more bargaining chips at the negotiation table, but instead became a bargaining chip for the U.S. and its European allies to pressure the CCP. The CCP once again found itself outsmarting itself and ending up worse off.

The CCP’s Bluffing Doesn’t Work

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that at the beginning of the negotiations, the Chinese delegation raised “very aggressive demands,” including lowering U.S. tariffs on China and lifting technology sanctions, in exchange for the CCP allowing the TikTok deal to go through. But Bessent made it clear: “We are not willing to sacrifice national security for a social media app.”

The TikTok deal should have been the most important issue in this round of negotiations, because Trump had set September 17 as the final deadline. If no agreement was reached, TikTok’s business in the U.S. would face a hard termination. This round of talks was almost a last-minute effort by both sides, with the U.S. holding the key card to TikTok’s survival.

Before the deadline, the CCP was already in a passive position, yet it continued bluffing, trying to create bargaining chips out of thin air. At the critical moment, Trump again applied strong pressure, publicly declaring on September 14 that if no deal could be reached, he was “prepared to let it [TikTok] end.” The U.S. delegation showed the same tough stance. The result was that the CCP lost and had no choice but to accept the TikTok framework agreement.

After all, the U.S. was willing to pay a fair price for TikTok. The CCP could at least pocket a large sum of U.S. dollars—better than getting nothing at all.

The contest over TikTok between the U.S. and China may not end here. The CCP could at any time renege, repudiate, or throw in new obstacles, while the U.S. could also forcibly strip away TikTok’s business at any time. According to the U.S. side, the CCP’s temporary concessions at this moment are aimed at facilitating Trump’s visit to China within the year. This likely exposes Zhongnanhai’s greater anxieties.

Is the CCP Trying to Strike a Deal With the U.S. First?

Trump had already received an invitation to visit China and had publicly talked about it many times, to press the CCP into making major concessions, or else the trip would likely not happen. Zhongnanhai, desperate to secure Trump’s early visit, had to hurriedly make some gestures of concession.

Russian President Putin has already met with Trump. The CCP’s so-called “head-of-state diplomacy” was clearly more than one step behind. If a Trump visit to China could be arranged, then Zhongnanhai could at least claim to have seized some initiative.

At the Beijing parade, the shocking dialogue between the CCP leader and Putin, as well as their joint appearance with Kim Jong-un, drew international attention. Beyond the horrifying topic of organ transplants, the anti-U.S., anti-Western tendencies shown by China, Russia, and North Korea also alarmed other countries. However, China, Russia, and North Korea are not truly allies, each has its own calculations.

Moscow has acted first, striving to improve relations with the U.S. and using the Russia-Ukraine war to try to extract more benefits from the U.S. and Europe. The CCP wants the Russia-Ukraine war to drag on, while Russia wants the U.S.-China confrontation to continue, the fiercer the better. Both try to push the other in front to act as a shield.

Putin attended the Beijing parade to continue extracting benefits from the CCP, while also pushing the CCP further to the forefront of confrontation with the U.S. Kim Jong-un’s appearance was similar: he seeks to balance between China and Russia, and also took the opportunity to signal to Trump not to forget that North Korea could also be used as one of the CCP’s bargaining chips.

The CCP did not invite U.S. and European dignitaries to the parade. Though still putting on a facade, its inner worries were undeniable. The CCP has not truly formed an anti-U.S. alliance but has stepped onto the front stage alone, while Russia and North Korea both want to use the CCP as a scapegoat while mending fences with the U.S.

U.S.-China trade talks have gone through multiple rounds, with the CCP at a disadvantage. Bluffing and playing tricks can only lead to greater blows. At this moment, the CCP has no choice but to adjust its posture toward the U.S., seek Trump’s visit to China, and ideally strike a deal with the U.S. first to avoid being betrayed by Russia and North Korea.

Facing the escalating pressure of the U.S.-China trade war, Zhongnanhai faces another thorny problem: if the U.S. and Europe jointly impose secondary sanctions on Chinese imports of Russian oil, the CCP will find itself with even less room to maneuver.

The U.S. and Europe Prepare Joint Sanctions Against the CCP

At the CCP Foreign Ministry press conference on September 15, an Xinhua reporter was arranged to ask: “Recently, the U.S., citing China’s import of Russian oil, has called on the G7 and NATO member states to collectively raise tariffs on China, urging China to play a role in ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. What is China’s comment on this?”

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian still insisted that energy cooperation with Russia was “legitimate” and “resolutely opposed” sanctions.

This was a scripted performance by the CCP, showing that it indeed felt great pressure. During the U.S.-China talks, Treasury Secretary Bessent also deliberately spoke out publicly on the issue, saying that Europe needed to act in sync with the U.S., otherwise the U.S. would not act alone. This amounted to external pressure beyond the talks, and it also forced the CCP delegation to make concessions.

Trump has repeatedly stated his desire to end the Russia-Ukraine war as soon as possible. His earlier series of moves can all be seen as testing the waters. If Moscow is truly willing to compromise, that would be best; if the Kremlin intends to delay, then the U.S. and Europe will need to take tougher measures.

Now, the process of pushing for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire has reached a real critical point. Only by forcing the CCP to reduce or stop its aid to Russia can the war end. European countries should be most eager to see this war end, but they need the U.S. to lead. In the past, both the U.S. and Europe have warned the CCP, but limited sanctions had little effect. Now, the U.S. is pushing for joint secondary tariffs with Europe against China, and Europe faces a major decision.

After the U.S.-China trade war reignited, Trump’s reciprocal tariffs also pressured various countries, and agreements were reached with the EU and some other nations, opening a new chapter in U.S.-Europe cooperation. After meeting with Putin, Trump also invited European leaders to the White House for consultations. Now it only awaits Europe’s key decision, which directly concerns the future direction of EU-China relations.

The EU and the CCP have repeatedly fallen into deadlock. The EU has many times proposed adjusting its strategy toward the CCP. Now it faces a major watershed moment. This will inevitably make the CCP very anxious. At the moment of U.S.-China confrontation, new clashes between Europe and China may also erupt.

This is the inevitable result of the CCP supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine. Zhongnanhai is in a dilemma. Its only option seems to be to improve relations with the U.S. by necessity. Arranging Trump’s visit to China might bring some turnaround, but this is still uncertain. The CCP wanted to use Russia as a bargaining chip against the U.S. and Europe, but now it may instead lead to a U.S.-Europe joint front against China—something the CCP had not anticipated.

Conclusion

Although the U.S. and China reached a framework agreement on TikTok, broader economic and trade negotiations have not made progress. According to U.S. Trade Representative Greer, the Chinese side “has not yet found a way forward on the issue.” The two sides also discussed combating money laundering and curbing fentanyl, but the CCP made no commitments. The U.S. did not simply wait; the U.S. military has already been ordered to intercept and strike drug-carrying ships at sea.

On September 16, Xinhua published two articles, “Facing Differences, Equal Dialogue: China-U.S. Economic and Trade Talks Advance Into Deep Waters” and “Rational Dialogue Serves the Interests of Both China and the U.S.” The CCP was attempting to explain its concessions domestically and shape public opinion. However, the multiple rounds of talks between China and the U.S. have shown that the CCP has no real bargaining chips, while continually handing the U.S. and its allies more chips. Today it is increasingly stuck in a situation with no way out.

(Dajiyuan)