Xi Uses U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan as a Bargaining Chip — Will Trump Be Led by the Nose?

Taiwan/Flag of the Republic of China. On January 11, 2023, at a military base in Kaohsiung, Taiwan‘s armed forces conducted a two-day routine exercise. (Annabelle Chih/Getty Images)

[People News] Even before the U.S.–China summit has officially begun, the smell of gunpowder is already in the air behind the scenes. A recent editorial in The Wall Street Journal shocked the political world by pointing out directly that CCP leader Xi Jinping is preparing to present U.S. President Trump with a major “diplomatic demand.” At the center of this high-stakes gamble is none other than “arms sales to Taiwan.” Can Xi really use a single summit to extract a major U.S. concession on the Taiwan Strait issue?

According to informed sources, Xi adopted an unusually tough tone in a recent phone call. He has seized on Trump’s desire for a “successful summit,” one that would help ensure stable rare earth supplies and smooth trade in American agricultural products. The condition Xi has set is very clear: if Trump wants this “summit gift package,” he must withdraw — or even halt — subsequent arms sales to Taiwan. It should be noted that just at the end of last year, the United States announced an arms sales package worth a total of $11.1 billion, with more in the pipeline. Now, the “lifeline funds” meant to defend Taiwan have become, in Beijing’s eyes, a bargaining chip.

A U.S. official revealed that although Xi’s stance is tough, Trump will not easily allow himself to be led by the nose by Beijing. On the 17th, Taiwan’s Central News Agency asked White House officials about Trump’s remarks related to Taiwan. The White House responded: “Our policy toward Taiwan has not changed.”

Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing in early April, and it is highly likely that he and Xi will discuss the Taiwan issue.

Yang Haozhen, senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group, told the Associated Press that observers are watching closely to see whether Trump will address the issue of arms sales to Taiwan during this trip. This has already fueled skepticism within Taiwan about the United States — for example, doubts about whether the U.S. would intervene if Beijing were to invade Taiwan.

Yang emphasized that stirring up further doubt and anxiety within Taiwan about the United States is precisely what Beijing hopes to achieve.

In other words, Beijing will seize the opportunity to promote the narrative that “the United States is not trustworthy,” while Indo-Pacific allies such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines may also begin to question whether Trump would sacrifice collective defense in order to appease Beijing.

At present, the PLA’s military pressure is escalating sharply. Recent naval exercises have even been viewed as tactical rehearsals for a “blockade of Taiwan.” More importantly, some analyses suggest that Xi has already instructed the military to be prepared to use force to seize Taiwan by 2027.

On February 24, Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan will convene. The most closely watched bill is the NT$1.25 trillion special defense budget. Since last year through the end of January this year, the proposal has been blocked ten times by the opposition Kuomintang and the Taiwan People’s Party acting together.

On February 13, 37 bipartisan U.S. lawmakers sent a letter to Legislative Yuan Speaker Han Kuo-yu, expressing concern over the blocking of the defense budget.

Kuomintang legislator and Legislative Yuan Speaker Han Kuo-yu issued a statement on February 16 saying that the special defense budget would be given “top priority for review.”

Republic of China President Lai Ching-te said in a speech before Lunar New Year that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan have not changed. Lai called for the defense budget to pass smoothly, stating: “This represents Taiwan’s determination, and it represents Taiwan fulfilling its responsibility to the international community. We do not want Taiwan to become a breach in Indo-Pacific peace and stability.”

In January this year, the Indo-Pacific Strategic Think Tank held a seminar titled “How Should We Deal with China?” Yu Maochun, Director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute in the United States, pointed out that what the CCP fears most is not criticism, but a stronger, more united, and more resilient opponent. The truly effective strategy is not emotional venting, but long-term, calm, institutionalized responses.