Pictured: File photo of Zhang Youxia (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)
[People News] The Communist Party of China's "Two Sessions" for this year has concluded, and all eyes are on one name—Zhang Youxia. Following the announcement on January 24 of an investigation into him and Military Commission member Liu Zhenli, many anticipated that the National People's Congress would officially revoke their qualifications as representatives and their positions as national leaders. However, the meeting has ended, and Zhang Youxia's name remains unscathed on the official website. Is this a protective move by NPC Chairman Zhao Leji? Or has Zhang Youxia truly managed to turn his situation around?
Du Wen, the executive director of the legal advisory office of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region government, suggests that this indicates Zhang Youxia may currently be under "isolated review" or house arrest, and it is not yet time for the final legal proceedings, which does not imply that Zhang Youxia is out of danger.
Looking at previous cases, He Weidong, the vice chairman of the Military Commission who was dismissed in 2025, experienced a full seven and a half months from the announcement of his investigation to his official dismissal by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were only officially announced as under investigation at the end of January this year, and it has only been 40 days since the Two Sessions convened in March. Given the pace at which the Communist Party deals with senior generals, they are simply unable to keep up with the rapid developments of the Two Sessions.
Du Wen emphasised that it is not that Zhao Leji intervened to protect Zhang Youxia; rather, according to the internal practices of the Communist Party, handling individuals of this rank would not occur publicly in such a sensitive and large-scale event as the Two Sessions.
What is the greatest fear of the Chinese Communist Party? It is the "spillover of power struggles." Du Wen remarked that the Two Sessions are not a venue for resolving issues, but rather a political ritual aimed at "concealing problems."
Consider this: if a dramatic public dismissal of the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission were to unfold before nearly three thousand representatives and thousands of foreign media, how would it be perceived by the outside world? Such an event would likely be interpreted as a public display of military power struggles and a sign of instability at the highest levels of leadership.
Additionally, aside from procedural issues, Zhang Youxia's identity is quite unique. He is not just any general; he is part of the 'red second generation' and serves as a 'ballast stone' within the military, with his father being a founding general who has strong connections to the Xi family.
The question arises as to why the National People's Congress did not revoke the representative qualifications and national positions of Zhang and Liu. Du Wen offered an explanation: the real political resolution has not yet been finalised, and the actual decision-making occurs behind closed doors among the party's high-ranking officials. Once the investigation is concluded and a political resolution is reached, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will reconvene to formalise the outcomes of the power struggle that has already taken place into legal documents.
Independent commentator Cai Shenkun suggests that Xi Jinping's swift action against Zhang Youxia is significant, as Zhang represents a formidable force within the military's red second generation. If he is dealt with too abruptly, Xi Jinping could face considerable backlash or counterbalance from this faction.
Cai Shenkun further analysed for New Tang Dynasty that if the case of Zhang Youxia is to be discussed at the National People's Congress, there must be ample evidence to support it.
He believes that the evidence in the current case may not be sufficient, and there is still no clear explanation regarding the so-called crimes committed by Zhang Youxia. The ongoing silence might reflect the intense 'political bargaining' still occurring between the highest echelons and the princelings and the 'red second generation.' If the evidence is insufficient, or if the internal party negotiations have not yet reached a final compromise, Zhao Leji's control over the National People's Congress will likely refrain from taking any rash actions.
Thus, Zhang Youxia's current retention in his position does not imply that he is 'safe,' nor does it suggest that he can 'turn the tables.' This is simply a pause in the power dynamics of the Chinese Communist Party. The true decision-making authority does not reside with the voting mechanisms of the National People's Congress, but rather in the backrooms of Zhongnanhai.
However, a video has surfaced that suggests the rift between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping has been developing for some time.
The video captures a scene where a speaker on stage is talking animatedly, while General Zhang Youxia below appears completely unfazed, as if a mountain were crumbling before him. This demeanour, according to traditional Chinese medicine, is referred to as 'closing the eyes to nourish the spirit,' but from the perspective of the Politburo, it is seen as blatant defiance. Is Zhang Youxia merely unaware, or does he simply not wish to awaken?
This incident also conveys a clear message: the stability of power within the Chinese Communist military is far more fragile than the outside world perceives. Even the second-in-command of the military can fall overnight; who will be next?
(People News first published)
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