Can Xi Jinping Find Peace in South America as "Chinese New Year’s Eve" Returns?

The CCP is out of money; the Belt and Road Forum wrapped up hastily. (Video screenshot)

[People News] On November 11, 2024, the CCP’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that CCP leader Xi Jinping, accompanied by Cai Qi and Wang Yi, departed Beijing by special plane to attend the 31st APEC Leaders’ Informal Meeting in Lima, Peru, and conduct an official visit to Peru. Xi will also travel to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to attend the G20 summit and visit Brazil, where he is scheduled to stay for a lengthy nine days.

Just before his departure, reports surfaced that Miao Hua, a close military ally of Xi and the head of the CCP Central Military Commission’s Political Work Department, had been detained. In addition, on November 12, the Chinese government announced that starting January 1, 2025, “Chinese New Year’s Eve” would once again be a national holiday.

In other words, before Xi’s departure, Premier Li Qiang issued an unexpected order to reinstate New Year’s Eve as an official holiday, ending the long-standing ban, which had sparked widespread discussion and excitement online. Some analysts suggest that this unusual move by Li Qiang sends a strong political message, possibly indicating that Xi Jinping’s power might be facing challenges.

“This ban on New Year’s Eve was a malicious regulation and tradition, and it had to be changed!” “Something seems to be shifting subtly,” netizens remarked. “Can he really feel at ease in South America? He may find it hard to rest.”

New Year’s Eve is a traditional Chinese holiday. In 2007, during Wen Jiabao’s tenure as premier, it was included as a statutory holiday. However, after Xi Jinping came to power in 2013, the holiday was removed, and New Year’s Eve was also not recognized as a holiday in 2014 and 2023. In the past two years, friends and family who texted or sent New Year’s Eve greetings were reportedly questioned or detained by local police. Even messages such as “Happy New Year’s Eve” using initials “Happy NX” were not tolerated.

The wordplay is that “New Year’s Eve” (“Chuxi”) sounds like “Remove Xi” (“Chuxi”), which many believed offended the leader. The phrase was deemed inauspicious.

While the CCP publicly professes atheism, this is seen as a guise. The party has consistently dabbled in superstitions, with examples ranging from Mao Zedong’s refusal to enter the Forbidden City to Jiang Zemin’s recitation of Buddhist scriptures. Other officials, such as Zhou Yongkang and Li Qiang, also reportedly practice superstitious rituals to ensure their fortunes and spiritual protection.

"New Year's Eve" was once seen as very inauspicious, but now its reinstatement has reminded people of the recent CCP military drill around Taiwan, "Joint Sword-2024B." The usual term "drill" was replaced with "exercise," which in Chinese can mean "to act out or imitate Xi." Was this exercise a portrayal of Xi, a performance for Xi, or Xi playing a role? The situation reportedly forced Xi to rush to Dongshan Island the next day, where, curiously, he avoided discussing the drill or potential military action toward Taiwan and instead spoke about domestic issues.

These developments have become indicators of whether Xi Jinping's power is stable.

Lately, rumors of Xi losing power have been widespread. For instance, Xi recently missed several major military meetings, which were instead chaired by Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia. While Xi was attending the BRICS summit in Kazan, Zhang promptly held an army drill near Beijing. This represented a shift from Xi's focus on naval personnel development, and Zhang’s recent visit to Vietnam included a head-of-state-level reception. In various meetings, high-profile figures have also stopped emphasizing concepts like "Xi Thought" and the "Two Upholds," signaling a change in tone. Between October 26 and November 8, CCP news coverage in state media outlets, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website and pages focused on Xi Jinping and Li Qiang’s activities, showed more coverage of Li Qiang’s meetings and speeches, while Xi’s mentions were limited to minor congratulatory messages for foreign audiences.

Recently, two of Xi's trusted associates have been sidelined. Former Jilin Provincial Secretary Jing Junhai was appointed as Deputy Director of the Education, Science, Culture, and Public Health Committee of the National People’s Congress on September 13, and former Zhejiang Provincial Secretary Yi Lianhong was appointed Deputy Director of the Finance and Economic Committee on November 8. These moves are perceived as signs of Xi’s diminishing influence.

On November 11, former PLA Navy officer Yao Cheng and independent commentator Cai Shenkun disclosed on platform X that Miao Hua, a member of the CCP Central Military Commission and Director of the Political Work Department, was taken in for investigation. Previously, figures promoted by Miao—such as Qin Shengxiang, head of the Military Reform Office, Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi, and Army Political Commissar Qin Shutang—were also under investigation. Miao has long been viewed as a close ally of Xi. Yao and Cai claim that Miao’s removal indicates a broader purge of Xi’s allies within the military, affecting numerous high-ranking officials, including newly appointed Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun. Many senior military officials come from the 31st Group Army, one of Xi's most trusted units, but it has now been marked as problematic, undermining Xi’s “confidence in the path, theory, system, and culture” slogans.

Currently, Miao Hua's investigation has not been officially confirmed. As per CCP norms, incidents involving high-ranking military officials are typically disclosed after some time, although they may avoid a public announcement to maintain appearances. However, if widespread revelations emerge about Xi's close associates facing issues, it could signal a major disruption in Xi’s regime.

Analysts believe that if all of these developments are more than mere rumors, Xi, who is currently in South America for nine days, is likely unsettled. There is even speculation that he might abruptly return, as he did during the BRICS summit in Kazan, to avoid the risk of losing his position should he delay too long.