Condom Tax and Other Desperate Moves Show China’s Population Strategy Has Failed

Photo: The emergency room of a hospital in Shanghai. China’s population crisis exacerbates hospital financial problems. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images.)

[People News] When a dog is cornered, it jumps over the wall. In a state of panic, the Chinese Communist Party is recklessly jumping into the pit.

After the Chinese Communist Party's disastrous release of a short video on the aesthetics of suffering titled 'Delivering Takeout is to Enjoy the Scenery,' Peking University, touted as China's premier institution of higher learning, has stepped in to take over, smoothly transitioning from promoting consumer suffering to encouraging the populace to focus on reproductive issues.

Recently, a news story has gone viral. The team led by Sun Dianjian from the School of Public Health at Peking University has completed a study based on a prospective research project on chronic diseases in China, arriving at a shocking conclusion—women who give birth to 3-4 children have the lowest risk of death.

This project took 12 years and involved a follow-up study of 510,000 individuals born between 1945 and 1965. The research also revealed that childless individuals face a higher risk of mental illness and cardiovascular diseases, with childless men and women suffering from chronic diseases having a death risk 37% and 27% higher, respectively, than those with children. For women, each additional child reduces the risk of breast cancer by 18%, while for men, each additional child lowers the risk of death by 4%.

Once the news broke, it quickly sparked a wave of public opinion online, with netizens mocking it en masse. 'They don't even care about their reputation anymore.' 'If you reverse the research, you can get the desired results; how convenient...' 'Women buying 3 to 4 large villas have the lowest risk of death.' Some humorously suggested, 'Peking University should recalculate; the odds of winning the lottery double with five children.'

On the Zhihu platform, a user commented after reading a research report from Peking University, saying, "I can't stop laughing: 35 men reported having a history of pregnancy. 189 women reported no pregnancies and no live births, yet claimed to have one or more biological offspring. This really highlights how much nonsense must be in this data of over 500,000..."

Some have openly called this pseudoscience, and even a lawyer has raised concerns: using data from half a century ago to inform contemporary fertility practices is misleading and overlooks issues like workplace discrimination and economic pressure.

In mainland China, party media is aligned with the party, and academic development and scientific research must also conform to party ideology; whether in social sciences or natural sciences, everything must follow the party's directives. The original scientific maverick, He Zuoxiu, has shamelessly promoted the use of the Three Represents theory to guide research in quantum mechanics.

Looking back at the history of the Communist Party's fertility propaganda is akin to reading a comprehensive guide to deception. During the Great Leap Forward, Mao Zedong advocated that "more people means more strength," and when faced with the question, "What if there isn't enough food for everyone? Just eat a little less." In the 1970s, 80s, and 90s, the violent family planning movement began, promoting the idea that "having only one child is good; the government will take care of your old age." In the 21st century, realising that the labour supply is insufficient, they began to deceive again, as children are the "soft spot" for labour; thus, instead of promoting the idea that more children bring more blessings, they shifted to advocating for health and longevity, encouraging more healthy births.

To pressure and incentivise the labour force to have children, the Communist Party has initiated a "Uterus Defence War," with the uterus becoming a new battleground for Zhongnanhai. Science has also begun to endorse and support fertility. The Communist Party, running out of tricks, understands that no one believes them when they speak directly anymore, so they don a scientific facade to deceive once more, but unexpectedly, it backfired instantly.

Transitioning from a demographic dividend to a demographic crisis, and now facing population anxiety, the Chinese Communist Party (Zhonggong) is making desperate attempts; if one strategy fails, they resort to another, each more perplexing and detrimental than the last.

On December 1, multiple Chinese media outlets, including Yicai, reported that starting January 1, 2026, the Value-Added Tax (VAT) law will officially come into effect, imposing VAT on contraceptive drugs and devices at a primary rate of 13%. VAT is a turnover tax, which theoretically means that the final consumer bears the tax burden, meaning consumers will ultimately pay.

When the provisional regulations of the VAT law were first introduced in 1993, contraceptive drugs and devices were included in the list of tax-exempt items, and this exemption has been maintained through several revisions, as the Chinese Communist Party was still enforcing its family planning policy at that time.

However, the situation has changed; contraception has now shifted to promoting childbirth. Young people are increasingly reluctant to have children, with the birth rate remaining around 1.0 since the introduction of the three-child policy. The United Nations Population Division estimates that the number of births in China this year will be approximately 8.71 million, indicating that the proportion of newborns in China has dropped below 7% of the global total.

The Chinese Communist Party has tried every possible tactic, including offering birth subsidies, childbirth rewards, raising divorce thresholds, and even encouraging mistresses to have children; yet, the public remains steadfast in their refusal to engage. This time, they are intensifying their approach, shifting from 'controlling births' to 'promoting births,' with the State Administration of Taxation and the Ministry of Finance also directly involved.

Netizens are once again expressing their joy and pushing back against recent policies. Some ridicule the intelligence of those who devised the policy, stating, 'It's easy to tell the difference between a 50 yuan condom and a 500 yuan baby formula.' Others suggest to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), 'They should introduce a policy that exempts entrepreneurs from corporate income tax when they have children.' Some sarcastically inquire, 'Will single individuals have to pay a single tax in the future?' and 'Will there be laws against selling, transporting, or hiding contraceptives in the future?' 

Certain netizens have made sharp observations: 'They prefer to focus on condoms rather than ensuring food safety.' 'If they treat the people better, children will naturally follow.' 'They go to great lengths with underhanded tactics, yet refuse to offer any real welfare; it’s astonishing how disgraceful their approach is, marking a significant moment in history.' 

The CCP's claim that 'having four children leads to longevity' and the stealthy 13% price hike on condoms are essentially a blatant attempt to bind both the uterus and the wallet. In this demographic battle, the CCP is facing a rapid and uncontrollable collapse.

Recently, a video featuring Zhang Junni, an associate professor at the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, has gone viral online. The video is titled 'With a Population of Only 400 Million, How Do We Solve the Problem of Not Having Children?' In her speech, Zhang Junni asserts: 'Our country's population is projected to return to around 400 million in a hundred years, reverting to the 400 million compatriots mentioned a century ago. This prediction was made four years ago and was met with some scepticism. Now, four years later, new data has emerged. If there is one aspect of my earlier prediction that requires revision, it is that it was overly optimistic. If the age-specific fertility and mortality rates remain unchanged at 2023 levels, and we do not account for international migration, then in eighty-three years, our population will likely return to around 400 million. Additionally, the population structure will exhibit a severe inverted pyramid shape, with children aged 0-14 making up 6.4% and those aged 65 and older comprising 45.7%. 

Now, let’s examine some other concerning data related to the population crisis: 

According to a report by Caijing magazine, several experts estimate that approximately 26,000 kindergartens may close by 2025, and by 2030, the total number of kindergartens in the country could fall to about 163,700—resulting in an average of around 15,000 closures each year. 

In the first half of 2025, 1,247 private hospitals ceased operations, averaging 7 closures per day. Many of these are obstetrics and gynaecology hospitals as well as children's hospitals. A 2024 article by The Paper titled 'Obstetrics and Gynaecology Faces a 

From the perspective of the population age structure, the working-age population is expected to continue declining due to the peak of retirements and a gradual decrease in new entrants to the labour force. Based on census data from the National Bureau of Statistics and age group population data from the United Nations, it is estimated that the number of labourers aged 16-59 in China will decrease by approximately 7.2 million in 2025 compared to 2024, indicating a trend of gradual reduction in the labour force from 2025 to 2040.

On November 28, Tongfang Global Life Insurance and the China Insurance and Risk Management Research Centre at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management jointly released the "2025 China Residents' Retirement Preparedness Index Research Report." The report indicates that China has entered a "deeply ageing society." From 2015 to 2024, the population aged 65 and older grew from 145 million to 220 million, representing a net increase of nearly 75 million. The old-age dependency ratio rose from 14.3% in 2015 to 22.8% in 2024. This shift signifies an irreversible transition in Chinese society from a focus on "supporting the future" to a new era centred on "supporting the past."

According to the "China Enterprise Social Security White Paper 2024," only 28.4% of enterprises are fully compliant with the social security payment base. Approximately 70% of enterprises face issues of non-payment or underpayment, particularly among small and micro enterprises and individual businesses. The Ministry of Finance of China reported in 2022 that the gap in basic pensions reached 700 billion yuan in 2021, and this gap is projected to expand to between 8 trillion and 10 trillion yuan over the next decade.

This situation has far surpassed what can be described by the term 'crisis'; it is an epic collapse. Young people are confronted with educational competition, high unemployment rates, skyrocketing housing prices, the 996 work culture, entrenched social stratification, and exorbitant healthcare costs... each of these challenges is like a mountain on their shoulders, leaving them devoid of hope for life, and even a lack of love for life.

The Peking University paper claiming 'having four children leads to longer life' and the 13% value-added tax on condoms will merely serve as a darkly humorous lens and a grim joke for young people to recognise the lies of the Communist Party.

(Originally published by the People News) △