On December 4, 2024, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia (second), accompanied by members of the Central Military Commission (CMC), visited the headquarters of the newly established Information Support Force in Beijing.
[People News] The power showdown between Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia has become the most evenly matched and most dangerous life-and-death struggle within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) since the regime’s founding. Its outcome will not only determine China’s political trajectory, but could even become the final straw that breaks the CCP’s back. Therefore, we must pay close attention to every step in the situation’s evolution and make timely and accurate judgments based on how events unfold.
The Wall Street Journal, through overseas Party media channels, has already labeled Zhang Youxia with the charge of “defecting to the enemy” (exactly the same label that was once put on me). This means the two sides have completely torn off all pretenses, and a zero-sum game of life and death has officially begun. As I said before, this time is different from Xi’s previous purges of military generals—before, it was “catching chickens”; this time, it’s “bayonet fighting.” Both sides will fight with their backs against the wall and use every means at their disposal. So this life-or-death showdown has only just begun. There will be countless variables ahead, and who will emerge victorious remains uncertain.
The key factors that will determine the direction of this Xi–Zhang struggle include, but are not limited to:
• How the “red families” choose sides
• Who truly controls the guns
• Where public opinion ultimately leans
• How the international situation evolves
• President Trump’s ultimate choice
Today we begin with “how the red families choose sides.” After all, China is essentially still a country controlled by red families; everyone else merely plays supporting roles. The real red families refer to the families of the first-generation revolutionary founders, with the families of subsequent top leaders barely counting as well.
Below are the ten major red families that still retain influence (excluding Xi’s own family):
1. Deng Xiaoping Family
• Representative figure: Deng Pufang
• Current status: Family influence has greatly declined, but the residual prestige of being the leading red family remains
• Possible direction: Dissatisfied with Xi’s extreme centralization of power? Might they quietly support anti-Xi forces?
2. Chen Yun Family
• Leading figure: Chen Yuan
• Current status: Still controls trillions in state financial resources; a major conservative heavyweight
• Possible direction: If the economy nears collapse and interests are harmed, could Chen Yuan switch sides?
3. Ye Jianying Family
• Leading figure: Ye Xuanlian
• Current status: His brother Ye Xuanning long controlled military intelligence; another brother Ye Xuanping was once known as the “Southern King,” a leader among military princelings
• Possible direction: As part of the military system like Zhang Youxia, might they rise up amid the military purge?
4. Jiang Zemin Family
• Leading figure: Jiang Mianheng
• Current status: Controls the telecommunications industry, enormously wealthy, core remnant of the Shanghai faction
• Possible direction: With huge overseas assets, might they counterattack or leak information?
5. Wang Zhen Family
• Leading figure: Wang Zhi
• Current status: Wang Jun once controlled CITIC and Poly Group, head of a vast arms empire
• Possible direction: Close to Jiang Zemin—might they join the Shanghai faction’s anti-Xi camp?
6. Yao Yilin Family
• Leading figure: Wang Qishan
• Current status: Former financial heavyweight and Xi’s anti-corruption ally, now in a “neither alive nor dead” political state
• Possible direction: Wang Qishan’s silence is the biggest variable. Having been sidelined, will he make a comeback?
7. Zeng Qinghong Family
• Leading figure: Zeng Qinghong himself
• Current status: De facto head of the Shanghai faction and intelligence chief, heavily suppressed
• Possible direction: With strong overseas influence, might he lead a united anti-Xi front?
8. Hu Jintao Family
• Leading figure: Hu Jintao himself
• Current status: Elderly, but as leader of the Youth League faction, his followers are spread across all levels of government
• Future direction: Though marginalized for years, the faction is large. Might Hu Jintao’s protégé Hu Chunhua seize the chance to revive or counterattack?
9. Wen Jiabao Family
• Leading figure: Wen Jiabao himself
• Current status: Relatively good reputation and wants to preserve his legacy, but lacking boldness and decisiveness
• Possible direction: With strong family business interests, might they represent public opinion in challenging Xi?
10. Li Peng Family
• Leading figure: Li Xiaolin
• Current status: Power industry tycoon, but battered under Xi
• Possible direction: Li Xiaopeng is relatively mild (he even once pursued someone close to me), but with Zhou Enlai’s legacy influence, might they seek revenge on Xi?
The positioning of these ten families will to some extent influence the direction of the Xi–Zhang struggle, but they are by no means decisive factors. If no clear turning point appears, most families will seek self-preservation and continue to play dead. There could also be a dark horse—for example, Liu Yuan, son of Liu Shaoqi, or a Xiang Yu–like figure emerging from among the descendants of Hu Yaobang or Zhao Ziyang. Anything is possible.
In short, this is a genuine showdown, not a one-sided purge. Dramatic reversals could occur at any time. Let us watch how events develop.
(Preview of the next article: The red families choosing sides is only the prelude. The real life-and-death card lies with the guns. Amid a vacuum in the military, who can truly control the gun? Will the Taiwan Strait situation escalate and become the decisive blow that crushes one side?)
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