Sending Large Gift Packages Proves Ineffective; ASEAN Declines to Be a Pawn of the CCP

Dark clouds loom over Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. (Feng Li/Getty Images)

[People News] The term "Qi Shu" typically refers to fate, fortune, or the developmental trends of events, often linked to the rise and fall of nations. When a government is experiencing a period of strong qi, its formidable presence can instil fear or admiration in others or allied nations. Conversely, as its qi wanes, those who once complied may stand tall and refuse to submit.

From April 14 to 18, 2025, Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping is set to embark on a state visit to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, proclaiming the intention to "forge a new chapter in the shared destiny of the region." However, this is merely the CCP's perspective.

Last November, Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Sanae made remarks concerning the "Taiwan issue," which led the CCP to enact a series of boycotts against Japan, escalating tensions in Sino-Japanese relations. To exert additional pressure on Japan, just days after Kishi's comments, the CCP convened an unusual meeting of ambassadors from Southeast Asian nations, seeking support for its boycott of Japan. The CCP assumed that since Xi Jinping had recently concluded a visit to Southeast Asia and presented substantial gifts to these countries, they would not refuse, believing that "those who benefit from kindness will not turn against their benefactor." However, the CCP underestimated its diminished influence, which can no longer intimidate other nations; ASEAN countries are now acutely aware of the dynamics at play.

According to a report by the Hong Kong media outlet South China Morning Post on February 6, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) summoned the ambassadors or deputy ambassadors of most Southeast Asian countries to China at the end of last year. The meeting was framed as a communication channel to gather the regional countries' views on the comments made by Kōichi Shitami. Sources indicate that during this meeting, chaired by a deputy director-level official from the CCP, the Chinese side urged these countries to align with Beijing and support its stance regarding the remarks made by the Japanese Prime Minister. Southeast Asian diplomats were informed that, given their historical status as victims of Japanese aggression during World War II, they should therefore support Beijing.

The report highlights that this 'rare meeting' between the CCP and senior Southeast Asian diplomats in Beijing occurred just days after Kōichi Shitami's comments on November 7 of last year, underscoring the CCP government's efforts to rally support against Japan. However, it also illustrates the limitations of CCP diplomacy.

The report notes that the meeting has had minimal impact on Beijing thus far. The only Southeast Asian country to publicly condemn Kōichi's remarks is Myanmar, which views China as its strongest ally among Southeast Asian nations. The Deputy Minister of Information of Myanmar stated on November 22 last year: 'Kōichi's remarks demonstrate that he has not learned from history and show neither remorse nor a sense of responsibility for the crimes committed by Japan in Asia.'

The CCP is adept at creating a united front, which fundamentally involves rallying the majority while isolating the enemy. The CCP believes that the shared experience of being victims of Japanese militarism during World War II will resonate with Southeast Asian countries.

Simultaneously, China, being the largest trading partner in Southeast Asia, has a strong likelihood of influencing these countries to condemn Japan in order to protect its interests.

The tactics employed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) resemble those of spending money to persuade foreign leaders to proclaim 'One China' and assert that 'Taiwan is a part of Chinese territory.' However, this time the CCP has miscalculated.

As noted by Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at the political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, nations are aware that the world has changed, and 'revisiting or resurrecting historical grievances serves little purpose.' He remarked, 'ASEAN leaders simply wish to distance themselves from this conflict as much as possible.' △