Dong Jun s Absence Raises Speculation

The new Defence Minister, Dong Jun, may add new drama to the 46th image (prophecy) of the Tui Bei Tu. (Truth of the People provided the report.)

[People News] Following the recent official announcement of the suspension of the death penalty for former Chinese Defence Ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, the absence of current Defence Minister Dong Jun from key diplomatic events has ignited speculation: Is Dong Jun experiencing health problems, or has he once again come under investigation?

Dong Jun's last public appearance was on May 14 during the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, where U.S. Secretary of Defence Mark Esper accompanied Trump on his visit to China, and the two engaged in a brief conversation through a translator during the banquet. However, Dong Jun was notably absent from the meeting between Xi Jinping and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz on May 25. Given that the Commander of the Pakistan Army and Chief of General Staff Munir was present, Dong Jun's absence raised eyebrows.

It is important to note that Munir, as Pakistan's highest military commander, is not the defence minister responsible for defence administration and policy, which falls under the civilian government; he should be interacting with senior military officials in China. On May 26, Zhang Shengmin, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, met with Munir, confirming this point. Zhang Shengmin's formal remarks also suggested that such meetings are largely ceremonial.

Moreover, during Munir's visits to China in July 2025 and April 2023, he met with Zhang Youxia, who was then Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission and has since been officially dismissed. Additionally, there have been no reports in recent years of Li Shangfu, Dong Jun, and Munir meeting; they typically engaged with generals at the level of the Chief of Air Staff of Pakistan. Therefore, Dong Jun's absence from the meeting between Xi and Shehbaz does not provide substantial evidence of any potential issues he may be facing.

Wang Yi's meeting with Munir is not without precedent. On April 27, 2023, Wang Yi met with him to discuss international issues. From the Pakistani perspective, this meeting with Wang Yi is particularly significant, as they need to align their diplomatic approach with that of the Chinese Communist Party. Wang Yi not only has a deep understanding of the international landscape but also insights into the thoughts of the highest leadership. This recent meeting between Wang Yi and Munir is likely connected to the situation regarding Iran.

Additionally, reports indicate that Dong Jun will not attend the Shangri-La Dialogue taking place in Singapore this weekend, with a lower-level delegation from the National Defence University set to represent him. This marks the second consecutive year Dong Jun has missed this forum, and the reasons for his absence remain unclear. The discussions at this forum are expected to focus on issues related to the Middle East and the Taiwan Strait.

Dong Jun's absence as the Minister of Defence could stem from personal reasons, or it may reflect a belief among the Communist Party's higher-ups that his participation in the forum is not particularly meaningful given the current international context, leading to a decision to lower the level of representation. Thus, his absence does not necessarily imply that he is in trouble.

Given the Communist Party's tendency for opaque operations, there have been rumours suggesting that Dong Jun, who is reportedly under investigation, may indeed be facing difficulties. Dong Jun is a member of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party and was appointed Minister of Defence on December 29, 2023, following the dismissal of Li Shangfu. He is the first Minister of Defence from the Navy since the establishment of the Communist Party. However, he has yet to be promoted to a member of the Military Commission or the State Council, as is typically expected.

It is widely believed that Dong Jun was recommended to Xi Jinping by Miao Hua, the former Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission, who is a close military confidant of Xi. Following Miao Hua's downfall in 2024, there have been multiple reports of Dong Jun being investigated, reportedly in connection with corruption issues.

Data indicates that Dong Jun has held several significant positions, including Deputy Commander of the East Sea Fleet, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Navy, Deputy Commander of the Southern Theatre, and Commander of the Navy. In February 2024, freelance writer Du Zheng wrote in 'Shang Bao' that the political work system of the Chinese Communist Party's military, managed by Miao Hua for over six years, has historically been a major area of corruption. His predecessors, Xu Caihou and Zhang Yang, were both embroiled in massive corruption scandals; one died of illness, while the other took his own life. For decades, officials seeking promotion within the system have had to engage in corruption to amass enough illicit funds to bribe their superiors. So, how much did Dong Jun actually bribe Miao Hua? Tens of millions? 

Interestingly, while rumours about Dong Jun's investigation have circulated for nearly two years, he has continued to make public appearances, suggesting that he may have safely navigated the situation. If Dong Jun's recent absence from certain events is solely related to him and not due to other reasons, it likely indicates that new evidence has surfaced in the ongoing investigation of the general under scrutiny, and Dong Jun may either be cooperating with the investigation or is currently detained. 

If Dong Jun's investigation is confirmed, it would reflect poorly on Xi and the Chinese Communist Party. The fall of over a hundred generals, including four vice chairmen of the Military Commission, four defence ministers, and numerous commanders from various theatres, serves as a stark reminder of the weakened combat capability of such a corrupt Chinese Communist military. It is likely to be easily defeated. 

(First published by People News) △