China's Education is Experiencing a Major Shift! 12 Million Children Have Disappeared

China's Education is Experiencing a Major Shift! 12 Million Children Have Disappeared

[People News] Hello everyone, and welcome to Hotspot Frontline. I am Xiaokun.

A shocking statistic is making waves in China's education sector: 21,400 kindergartens have vanished in just one year. This means that, on average, 59 kindergartens are closing their doors every day. Recently, Hubei's teacher recruitment quota was slashed by more than half in one fell swoop, while some regions in Jiangxi have seen reductions exceeding 80%. The once-coveted job security of teaching is now turning into one of the most precarious professions.

While many believe that the issue lies in teachers struggling to find work, the real loss is in the number of children. An increasing number of teachers are finding themselves with 'no students to teach.' The once highly competitive teaching positions are now becoming oversaturated.

What is truly happening in China's education system?

China is no longer facing a situation where 'teachers cannot find students'; instead, 'students are disappearing faster than teachers.' Many assume that the decline in China's population is just a macro statistic, but its impact on reality is strikingly precise. Official data indicates that in recent years, enrollment in kindergartens has plummeted by an astonishing 12 million. Alongside this decline are 630,000 early childhood education teachers who have also disappeared.

Education experts predict that by 2028, there will be a loss of 3 million students each year! By 2035, the total number of students in compulsory education is expected to be about 30 million fewer than in 2020, which is equivalent to the entire population of Malaysia.

As student numbers dwindle, schools are forced to close; when a school shuts down, teaching positions inevitably continue to decrease. Even teachers who are already employed within the system find themselves feeling insecure. In response, many regions have rolled out a "teacher exit mechanism," officially adopting a "last in, first out" policy. Those deemed unqualified or unable to attract students face the possibility of being placed on standby, reassigned, or even outright dismissed.

Once considered the most stable "lifetime iron rice bowl" by 1.4 billion people, this myth is now beginning to crumble and is destined to be shattered.

Many believe that teacher unemployment is solely a result of fewer children. However, there is another, more direct reason: local governments are running out of money.

Previously, local governments thrived on "land finance," enjoying substantial funds to construct attractive schools and offer generous performance bonuses and year-end rewards to teachers. Now, with the real estate market cooling, many local finances are in dire straits. In some areas, the inability to pay salaries and the cancellation of year-end bonuses have shifted from mere rumors to stark reality.

The disintegration of the "iron rice bowl" for Chinese teachers is not just a narrative about the education sector; it reflects a broader shift in our era.

Today, kindergartens are disappearing; tomorrow, it could be elementary schools; next in line may be middle schools, high schools, universities, and even pediatricians and the maternal and infant industry, all of which could face similar challenges. This is because they all depend on one common factor—the newborn population.

Today, China is confronted with more than just a declining birth rate; it is also experiencing a significant loss of societal confidence. The combination of high housing prices, soaring education costs, employment challenges, and falling incomes, along with increasingly tight local finances, has caused many young people to lose hope for the future. When marriage becomes a source of stress and having children feels like a burden, opting out of marriage and parenthood becomes a reluctant choice.

The future of a nation is not solely determined by the height of its skyscrapers or the size of its GDP; it also hinges on how many young individuals are willing to form families and embrace the next generation.

As a society sees a dwindling number of children, it is not just schools or the job security of teachers that vanish; it is the very vitality and hope that once defined the community.

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