Xi Jinping's High-Stakes Gamble on Zhang Youxia: Who is Stirring the Pot Behind the Scenes?

Xi and Cai

[People News] (Continuing from the previous article, 'Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli Ousted, Military on High Alert, Situation Could Change at Any Moment') What significant event has transpired within the Chinese Communist Party? In discussing the Xi-Zhang power struggle, it is noteworthy that for a time, terms such as 'one supreme leader' and 'core' seemed to vanish. The military media under Zhang Youxia's control has frequently referred to collective leadership in its reports, and notably, the two affirmations and two safeguards have not been mentioned at all.

After 11:45 PM on January 24, state media outlets such as Xinhua News Agency and People's Daily unexpectedly reprinted an editorial from the military's People's Liberation Army Daily, published at midnight, titled 'Resolutely Winning the Tough and Prolonged Overall War Against Corruption in the Army.' The article, which exceeds 1,500 words, mentions the term 'politics' 14 times. It claims that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli have seriously violated and undermined the responsibility system of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, significantly fostering political and corruption issues that threaten the Party's absolute leadership over the military and jeopardise the Party's ruling foundation. This has severely impacted the image and authority of the military commission leadership and shaken the political ideological foundation of unity and progress among all military personnel, causing substantial damage to the military's political construction, political ecology, and combat effectiveness. The phrases 'undermining the responsibility system of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission,' 'affecting the Party's absolute leadership over the military,' and 'endangering the Party's ruling foundation political issues' are particularly telling. In the Communist Party's terminology, it is clear that when discussing 'political and corruption issues,' the political issue is prioritised over the corruption issue. These straightforward Party phrases convey a clear message: Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are attempting a coup. Additionally, the article signals that the military media previously controlled by Zhang Youxia has now switched allegiance to Xi's Party.

Are there no other reasons beyond the coup and corruption? Interestingly, in the announcement regarding the downfall of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) stated that their investigation was a decision made by the 'Party Central Committee's research.' So, who exactly in the Party Central Committee is conducting this research? Is it a decision made during a Politburo meeting? Or is it a resolution from the 'Party Central Committee's centralised and unified leadership' team established at last year's Fourth Plenary Session? Alternatively, could it be the seven members of the Standing Committee, or a secret scheme involving Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Wang Huning, and Cai Qi? The so-called Party Central Committee decision regarding the investigation by He Weidong and Miao Hua took six months to finalise, while the announcement of Zhang and Liu's downfall was made so swiftly, suggesting that their arrests followed an irregular procedure and were a result of personal rule.

Why the rush in the arrests and the official announcement, which appears rough and incomplete in its expression? Who is in such a hurry? Does this indicate that the planners are eager to solidify something, or to push Zhang and Liu into a corner, hastening the process to turn raw rice into cooked rice? These strange manoeuvres reflect the deep-seated anxiety of Xi Jinping and his associates.

Australian independent media figure Jiang Wangzheng disclosed to The Dajiyuan that the individual who spearheaded the arrest of Zhang Youxia was Cai Qi, the Secretary of the Central Secretariat, who formed a political review group of the Central Military Commission under his leadership. He noted that Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping were originally part of a community of interests, but Xi wanted Zhang to step down, while Zhang resisted, leading to this conflict.

It appears that the driving force behind the effort to take down Zhang and Liu is still the unyielding Xi. Analysts suggest that if it weren't for the whispers from Wang Huning, Cai Qi, and others, Xi might not have taken this risky gamble.

Wen Guanzhong, an American-born Chinese economist, stated in an interview with The Dajiyuan that in a highly centralised system, disagreements often cannot be resolved through institutional means and instead escalate into a 'you die, I live' purge. He believes that the simultaneous investigations of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli indicate that the power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the military has reached a highly intense stage, which also undermines Xi Jinping's military governance capabilities and the legitimacy of his regime. Xi, preoccupied with consolidating his position within the military, may resort to desperate measures for self-preservation and to assert his authority.

Xi's regime's legitimacy has been undermined, his power has been diminished, and infighting within his faction has surfaced. In other words, since Xi launched his anti-corruption campaign, it appears that there are those setting traps, persistently spreading rumours, and inciting discord. While he is purging political adversaries, they are also systematically eroding Xi's influence, striking at his authority. Consequently, Xi finds himself with no way to retreat, trapped in a deadlock.

So, who are the individuals whispering in Xi's ear, trying to fracture the power within his faction and encouraging him to target political rivals among his trusted allies?

Since Xi Jinping assumed power at the 18th National Congress, he has primarily targeted figures from the Jiang faction, including Zhou Yongkang, Bo Xilai, Guo Boxiong, and Xu Caihou. At that time, he took the initiative to strike, seizing power from the Jiang faction. While the Jiang faction was engaged in covert struggles against Xi, they were also making deals on the surface, offering Xi centralised power and a chance for re-election in exchange for stability. This allowed Xi to establish his authority effectively.

So, are the members of the Jiang faction truly resigned to being defeated without any desire for revenge? Certainly not. Many among them are shrewd individuals who understand the intricacies of power dynamics. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Hu faction later consolidated power, resulting in the downfall of figures like Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang, while Hu Chunhua and others were pushed to the margins. As the anti-corruption campaign intensified, Xi became increasingly perplexed, viewing figures associated with the Jiang faction with suspicion. Thus, the individuals truly working to isolate Xi and render him a solitary figure are those who understand the art of power; they are laughing behind the scenes.

Although Jiang Zemin has passed away, the influence of the Jiang faction remains. Currently, figures such as Zeng Qinghong, Luo Gan, Zhang Dejiang, and Wang Huning—who was recognised by Jiang Zemin for his understanding of human nature—are still active. Both Zeng Qinghong and Wang Huning are known for their political acumen.

For Xi Jinping, who is focused on preserving the party, he believes that the anti-corruption campaign is still manageable and that it is impossible for the Communist Party to collapse as a result. This belief represents a vulnerability that others can exploit.

However, after all this time in the anti-corruption campaign, it is possible that neither Xi Jinping nor the Communist Party itself anticipated that such a regime could still endure and has not yet collapsed; perhaps fate has miscalculated.

Mainland lawyer Fei Zhu stated, "I advised Zhang Youxia to take action sooner, but he did not heed my advice. Now, I urge all senior generals of the Communist Party of China to act swiftly for a coup to return power to the people and ensure safety; otherwise, they will inevitably face a purge by Xi." 

However, in analysing the reasons behind the downfall of Zhang and Liu, some believe that Zhang Youxia's caution against advocating for a hasty military action against Taiwan at this time may have prompted Xi Jinping to remove Zhang and Liu in order to silence internal dissenters who oppose military action or feel that the time is not right. Some netizens have suggested that Xi Jinping is looking to make a final stand; facing pressure from the United States and arms sales to Taiwan, it is highly likely that after eliminating opposition to military action against Taiwan, he will fight to the end to secure re-election after the 20th National Congress, aiming to achieve lasting fame and authority. 

(Originally published by the People News) 
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