A Tragic Wen Jiabao: “With the Will to Slay the Thief, but Powerless to Save the Situation”

Around Chinese New Year, a handwritten New Year greeting card from former CCP Premier Wen Jiabao to Beichuan Middle School principal Liu Yachun circulated widely on social media. — online image

[People News]According to online information, on February 17, an X account named “Followers of Premier Wen” posted an image of a greeting card reading “Congratulations on the New Year 2026,” drawing widespread attention. In traditional Chinese format, the card was handwritten in black ink in vertical lines from right to left. In the message, it mentioned teachers and students who died in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, saying that “to this day, thinking of the teachers and students who unfortunately perished in the earthquake still brings tears to my eyes, and I feel especially sad.” The signature reads “Wen Jiabao, February 11, 2026,” and the recipient is Liu Yachun, principal of Beichuan Middle School.

Information shows that Liu Yachun has served as principal of Beichuan Middle School from the time of the earthquake until now. During the post-quake reconstruction period, Wen Jiabao visited Beichuan Middle School multiple times, wrote inscriptions, and sent reply letters, forming a special emotional bond between the two. Wen Jiabao served as Premier of the CCP State Council from 2003 to 2013. The Wenchuan earthquake was the most devastating disaster in terms of casualties and property losses during his tenure.

Savoring Wen Jiabao’s greeting card, it seems to go far beyond a simple personal relationship between Wen and Liu. Moreover, the Wenchuan earthquake occurred 18 years ago—6,570 days and nights. If it were not a piercing pain, why would an 84-year-old former premier remember it so deeply, to the point of being “moved to tears” at the thought of it?

So what hidden meaning might this greeting card contain? What unspeakable burden might it imply? Let us carefully examine the matter by starting with the post-earthquake timeline.

Key Post-Quake Timeline Reveals Clues

• May 12, 14:28 — An 8.0-magnitude earthquake strikes Wenchuan;

• May 12, 16:40 — Wen Jiabao’s special plane takes off from Beijing’s Western Suburbs Airport;

• May 12, 19:10 — The plane arrives at Chengdu Taipingsi Airport;

• May 12, 21:42 — Wen Jiabao arrives in Dujiangyan to direct disaster relief.

“I came as soon as I learned the news. Human lives are at stake. My feelings are just as heavy as everyone else’s.” (Wen Jiabao speaking at the Dujiangyan disaster relief command site at about 10 p.m. on the 12th.)

From 14:28, when the earthquake struck, to 16:40, when Wen’s plane took off—a span of 2 hours and 12 minutes—the following actions were completed:

1. Reports moved up through county, prefecture, province, and national earthquake systems to the State Council;

2. Zhongnanhai leaders held a meeting and made decisions;

3. Wen Jiabao and accompanying personnel prepared to depart;

4. A convoy from the Central Guard Bureau escorted Wen’s party to the Western Suburbs Airport (about a half-hour drive);

5. Boarding and takeoff.

From the above, it is not hard to see that Wen’s party had almost no time to prepare for travel. Why was Wen able to “rush here at the first moment”? The article argues it is because he already knew the Wenchuan earthquake could occur at any time, made preparations in advance, and ordered the aircraft at the Western Suburbs Airport to remain on standby for immediate departure.

The Truth of the Wenchuan Earthquake Was Concealed

The article claims evidence shows that relevant departments and experts made timely and relatively accurate forecasts before the earthquake, but CCP authorities did not disclose them on the grounds of “protecting the Olympics.” It then presents what it calls a replay of historical facts:

As early as July 2007, Zhou Rongjun, a senior engineer at the Sichuan Earthquake Administration, together with five European and American geophysical scientists, co-authored a paper in Tectonics titled “Active Block Motion of the Beichuan and Pengguan Faults on the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau,” stating: “Collision energy in the crust is accumulating in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, and will be released in the form of an earthquake; certain faults near Beichuan may pose potential risks of severe earthquake disasters.”

• March 22, 2008 — An unusual landslide event occurred in Weizhou Town, Wenchuan County.

• March 30 — An unusual landslide event occurred in Yingxiu Town, Wenchuan County.

• April 8 — An unusual landslide event occurred in Mianchi Town, Wenchuan County.

• April 18 — The Earthquake Bureau of Wen County, Longnan, Gansu, sent a short-term earthquake prediction to the National Earthquake Administration: from April 18 to May 20, a magnitude 6.8 to 7.2 earthquake would occur at 101°E, 35.7°N. (Wenchuan is approximately 103°E, 32°N.)

• April 30 — Earthquake experts Geng Qingguo, Chen Yiwen, and others sent a classified letter to the National Earthquake Administration stating that Aba Prefecture would see an earthquake above magnitude 7 within the next half year, with the danger window centered on May 8, plus or minus ten days.

The article says Geng Qingguo’s materials indicate that as early as November 2006 he wrote to Chen Jianmin, head of the National Earthquake Administration, predicting a magnitude 7.3 earthquake based on a severe drought in Maerkang near Wenchuan in 2002. It further claims that in January 2008 he wrote to Premier Wen Jiabao predicting a 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Sichuan, and that the prediction was signed for by a forecasting officer.

• May 10 — A large-scale migration of toads appeared in Mianzhu, described as a spectacle. (Huaxi Metropolis Daily, May 10, 2008)

A Baidu Baike entry is cited as recording that in early April, the Sichuan Earthquake Administration received reports of tremors and anomalous phenomena from various regions and conducted in-depth research. On April 14, director Wu Yaoqiang reported to provincial leaders that multiple signs suggested an earthquake above magnitude 5 in the near term. After analysis by Governor Jiang Jufeng and multiple experts, they concluded China was in the fifth earthquake-active period, and neighboring provinces had experienced four earthquakes of varying sizes in March. The provincial party committee took the matter seriously and reported it to Chen Jianmin, head of the National Earthquake Administration, on April 15.

The article says Chen Jianmin was abroad at the time, and that he asked over the phone whether experts were 100% certain; if not, then to avoid affecting the Olympic torch relay and to prevent public panic, nothing should be disclosed externally before reaching 100% certainty, and nothing should be reported upward before he returned.

It further claims that as a result, provincial leaders and relevant experts who understood the situation left Sichuan around April 20 for various reasons, with most leaving the country; nine experts and three provincial leaders and their families reportedly traveled to Singapore under the pretext of an inspection trip and did not return before the earthquake.

The article also claims that an informed person who traveled abroad with Chen Jianmin said Chen dared to demand that the Earthquake Administration not report upward because, after calling the State Council General Office, he called Jiang Zemin and received Jiang’s reply instructing him not to escalate the matter to the central authorities, to ensure the torch relay’s safety and social stability, and for Chen to “digest” it internally.

According to the July 2008 issue of Open Magazine, cited as quoting an insider with knowledge of the CCP leadership, before the Wenchuan earthquake occurred, after receiving earthquake experts’ forecasts, the Politburo held a meeting to decide whether to issue an earthquake warning. The vote result is described as: nine votes cast, eight against, only Wen Jiabao in favor. The reason for opposition was to ensure the torch relay’s safe passage and social stability.

Citing Liang Mu’s “Uncovering the Black cover of Predicting but Not Reporting the Wenchuan Earthquake,” the article claims that after reviewing large amounts of information, evidence shows mainland experts’ earthquake forecasts before the Sichuan earthquake were accurate and reported in a timely manner, and that only after Chen Jianmin sought instructions from the State Council and Jiang Zemin and received orders of “no forecasting allowed” did the catastrophe occur.

According to CCTV, at 14:28:04 on May 12, 2008, a magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck Wenchuan County, resulting in 69,227 deaths, 374,643 injuries, 17,923 missing, and direct economic losses of 845.2 billion yuan.

Based on the above, the article concludes that the Wenchuan earthquake was accurately predicted and reported in advance. It argues that Jiang Zemin—though no longer the top leader—still controlled the situation and was engaged in open and covert struggle with Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. It claims Jiang’s faction, troubled by Tibetan protests affecting the torch relay after the successful Olympic bid, pushed to conceal major earthquake forecast information from the Wenchuan region in order to maintain a false image of harmony and prosperity.

In this narrative, Wen Jiabao is portrayed as a lonely and awkward historical tragic figure—“with the will to slay the thief, but powerless to save the situation.” This, the article suggests, may be the main reason he was “moved to tears.”

U.S.-based commentator Cai Shenkun reposted Wen Jiabao’s Year of the Horse greeting card to Beichuan Middle School and said Wen Jiabao is one of the few national-level leaders since the 1980s still worth remembering.

Conclusion

The article concludes that the Wenchuan earthquake was an immense tragedy. Regardless of how Jiang’s faction obstructed matters, Wen Jiabao, as premier at the time, could not fully escape responsibility. Each time he recalls it, he feels deep pain and tears up, overwhelmed by sorrow, and can only offer a small card as slight consolation.

It then asks: since that is the case, why not, while he still has breath, reveal the full historical truth about the concealment of earthquake information—killing three birds with one stone: exposing wrongdoers, comforting the dead, and freeing his own conscience? △