Several Chinese Experts Are Focusing on the Potential Scenarios for the Collapse of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

On June 9, 2012, the Tiananmen Gate in Beijing was visible under the sunset following a rain shower. (Photo by Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

[People News] Yu Maochun, a China expert at the Hudson Institute, a U.S. think tank, recently wrote in the Washington Times, arguing that Washington and its allies should prepare for the 'post-CCP era' as a strategic contingency. He suggested that they consider how the world would respond if the CCP were to suddenly fall. He referenced the significant political changes at the end of the Cold War, noting that seemingly stable totalitarian regimes can lose control rapidly. He raised important considerations regarding nuclear weapons, military and economic risks, and the need to avoid a repeat of the Russian-style transition.

As reported by the Epoch Times, Yu Maochun emphasized that this planning is not about the U.S. designing a political system for China, stating, 'China's future can only be determined by the Chinese people themselves.' The objective is to create conditions that allow the Chinese people to establish a free, peaceful, rule-of-law, and constitutional China independently.

In discussions about the potential collapse of the CCP and the issue of regime transition, several Chinese scholars and experts on China have shared their insights.

Feng Chongyi: Popular uprisings, coups, and sudden events may interact to trigger a collapse.

Associate Professor Feng Chongyi from the University of Technology Sydney has indicated that the potential collapse of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime could unfold through several relatively clear pathways. One such pathway resembles the Soviet model: after the Communist Party relinquishes power, Gorbachev announced his resignation as President of the Soviet Union and transferred control of the nuclear button to Russian President Yeltsin. 'This scenario is relatively easier to manage, as it allows for ongoing communication with the newly established regime.' 

Another possibility involves an internal coup, where either the military or other anti-Xi factions could overthrow Xi Jinping, necessitating external parties to forge relationships with the coup leaders emerging from the CCP's internal divisions. 

'Communist ideology has long been discredited, and Xi Jinping has alienated nearly all social classes due to his background as a member of the red second generation, which has pushed for a return to centralization,' Feng Chongyi noted. Many have been advocating for preparations for a 'post-Communist China' because this regime could collapse at any moment. 'It lacks legitimacy and legality, having lost the trust of the populace, and is merely a regime that is struggling to survive.' 

The current economic downturn has become a stark reality: the real estate crisis has triggered financial and debt crises, leading to waves of unemployment and bankruptcies, with 'kindling and fire everywhere.' Feng Chongyi emphasized that the legitimacy of the regime ultimately hinges on the ancient concept of the 'Mandate of Heaven,' which reflects whether the people still recognize this regime. Should any signs of unrest arise, it could set off a chain reaction from civil unrest to military coups to regime change. 'Civil unrest and coups can mutually stimulate each other, leading to the regime's overthrow; this is one method of political change and regime transformation in China.' 

Even in the absence of large-scale civil unrest, Xi Jinping's purges of non-Xi factions within the party have already resulted in significant internal conflict. Those he elevated, such as Miao Hua from the Fujian clique and his aide Zhang Youxia, have also faced purges, resulting in a complete breakdown of trust within the party.

Feng Chongyi stated that the influence of these individuals cannot be entirely eliminated. 'They harbor a deep-seated hatred for Xi, and it is possible that they might resort to assassination or a coup. There is also a chance that an accidental incident could lead to Xi's downfall.'

Another scenario is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could instigate conflict in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, provoking the United States and the democratic world, which could lead the U.S. to adopt a 'decapitation' strategy against the CCP leadership. Feng Chongyi remarked, 'Once Xi Jinping is gone, there will be no new strongman or leader capable of managing the situation. At that point, a new regime will emerge, roundtable discussions will take place, and there will be a peaceful constitutional transition; all possibilities are on the table.'

Feng Chongyi believes that if change in China begins with a popular uprising, the influence of overseas democracy movements and the Chinese diaspora will be more significant, as they have consistently championed democracy and freedom while engaging with those in China. They could become a vital force in the grassroots transformation process, although their impact may not be decisive. If the regime falls due to an internal coup, power may be seized by individuals who have split from the CCP, and they might invite overseas forces to participate in the new power structure. If these individuals are internationalists and do not hold anti-American or anti-Western sentiments, they would likely welcome overseas individuals back with open arms.

He believes that if Xi Jinping is assassinated or 'decapitated' during a conflict, the situation will be highly unpredictable, with various factions vying for control over China's future. In such a scenario, overseas forces should exert their utmost efforts to promote a transition towards freedom and democracy.

Feng Chongyi referenced the 1911 Xinhai Revolution, noting that after the Qing emperor was forced to abdicate, the early Republic of China experienced a scenario where two parties competed for congressional seats and formed a cabinet. Although this transformation faced setbacks due to the assassination of Song Jiaoren, the Kuomintang later reverted to a military and political governance path. Nevertheless, civil society has consistently monitored the government to ensure progress towards liberal democracy and constitutionalism. 'Under the strict rule of the Communist Party, the power of the people has been fragmented. The way forward lies in supporting new political leaders to revive the democratic transformation reminiscent of the Xinhai Revolution and to develop in a healthy direction.'

Shen Mingshi: Nuclear Weapons Control, Temporary Government, and Transitional Justice are Key

Shen Mingshi, a researcher at the Taiwan National Defense Security Research Institute, expressed that for overseas dissidents and informed individuals, the potential collapse of the Communist regime is a hopeful prospect. It could pave the way for a new political system that allows overseas participation, party reorganization, the lifting of martial law, and a move towards democratization.

He believes that if the Communist Party were to collapse, the United States and its allies (including neighboring countries) would need to establish a contingency plan. Initially, this would involve implementing a physical blockade through special forces or international cooperation to ensure the safety of nuclear weapons control.

Furthermore, after the collapse of the Communist regime, the international community should create communication channels with key figures who temporarily maintain order. These figures would maintain local stability in exchange for international recognition or immunity from accountability.

Shen Mingshi noted that under Xi Jinping's leadership, political purges have left many elite officials in a state of 'lying flat.' Local finances in China are depleted, with widespread unpaid salaries for civil servants and teachers, and a surge in non-performing loans at banks. The pressure on the lower strata of society is approaching a critical threshold. Following the collapse of the Communist Party, establishing a temporary government, discussing the future political system, and drafting a new constitution will be of utmost importance.

He believes that it may be necessary to retain some existing governance talents at that time to help maintain the operation of the national system. Regarding the formulation of transitional justice rules, the experiences of East and West Germany and Taiwan can serve as references.

"After the collapse, there will no longer be centralized power; the focus should shift to strengthening decentralized information dissemination. This can be achieved by utilizing networks and satellites to promote future political directions, popularizing the concept of democratic constitutionalism, and enhancing civic participation and recognition. In the past, the Chinese Communist Party engaged in great power diplomacy and nationalist propaganda, but now it should return to common sense and guide society to pragmatically consider China's future and the safety of personal life and property," he stated.

Shen Mingshi indicated that the new government should eliminate past tyranny and unreasonable laws while safeguarding key documents, household registration, and property certificates, as these are crucial foundations for rebuilding society and the political system.

Sheng Xue: If Xi encounters problems, the Communist Party's power will fall into a double vacuum.

Canadian writer and China expert Sheng Xue pointed out that for many years, Xi Jinping has demanded a high level of integration and absolute loyalty from the military, consistently emphasizing the will to attack Taiwan and achieve victory within a set timeframe. However, she remarked, "This is entirely his personal delusion."

She highlighted that there are generals within the Chinese Communist Party's military, such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, who possess practical combat experience and professional knowledge. Their understanding of the military strength of the Communist Party is far more concrete than that of Xi Jinping, which could lead to conflicts between the two sides. Zhang Youxia's disagreement with and lack of cooperation regarding the approach to attacking Taiwan is one of the underlying causes of the recent crisis in the power struggle at the highest levels.

In discussing the potential scenarios following the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime, Sheng Xue remarked that the CCP's traditional logic is 'the party commands the gun.' If Xi Jinping were to suddenly face a crisis, his complete replacement of collective leadership with his personal style would complicate matters. According to the constitution, Vice President Han Zheng could assume responsibilities in the president's absence, and Premier Li Qiang could oversee administrative affairs. However, both lack real influence and authority, effectively serving as Xi Jinping's 'pawns,' and would struggle to maintain control.

'Opposition and dissenting forces could further push for a palace coup or a temporary uprising. Once the core leadership is gone, the responsibility system of the Central Military Commission and the extreme personal rule would descend into chaos, particularly within the military. If Xi Jinping were to encounter a crisis, under the current system, Li Qiang, Cai Qi, and other members of the Politburo Standing Committee might try to establish a collective transitional center. However, the internal dynamics are rife with scheming and distrust, and there is little willingness to cooperate among them,' she stated.

Sheng Xue emphasized that this situation will directly result in the failure of the 'Party commanding the gun', leading to a breakdown in the command chain. 'It raises questions about how each major theater will accept mobilization and who will dare to take the initiative in such mobilizations. The Chinese Communist Party is entering a dual vacuum characterized by 'no core in the Party and no leadership for the gun.'

Sheng Xue believes that the Western world, particularly the United States, must indeed engage in repeated simulations to anticipate several potential trends in China's development.
△