Trump Proves the “Thucydides Trap” Is a False Proposition Through Strength

In the early morning of October 6, 2024, Trump delivered his victory speech. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

[People News] On September 24, Xi Jinping, in his speech at the welcoming ceremony held in the White House hall, stated: “When China and the United States cooperate, both benefit; when they fight, both suffer… Both sides must uphold the bottom line of no conflict and no confrontation, and are certainly capable of finding a correct way for two major powers on this planet to get along… The Thucydides Trap can be avoided.”

In May this year, during Trump’s visit to Beijing, Xi Jinping also mentioned in his speech that “China-U.S. relations should be vigilant against the possible emergence of the ‘Thucydides Trap.’”

The term “Thucydides Trap” was coined by American political scientist Graham Allison. This concept, regarded as an “iron law” of international relations, originates from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides. He believed that when a rising power competes with an existing ruling hegemon, both sides face a situation similar to that of Athens’ rise in the 5th century BC, which alarmed the land power Sparta. Historically, such rivalry between a rising power and an established one often ends in war. Athens and Sparta fought for 30 years, and both ultimately declined.

In fact, during Xi’s visit to the United States in 2015, he once stated that “there is no such thing as the Thucydides Trap.” However, as China’s national strength has increased and Xi’s power has reached its peak, Xi—who aspires to guide the world—has in recent years repeatedly mentioned this concept when discussing China-U.S. relations. His intention is to tell the United States that the Chinese Communist Party does not seek hegemony, that China’s rise does not necessarily mean challenging or replacing the United States, and that both countries should avoid confrontation. This time, Xi reiterated this point at the White House, again conveying the same message to the United States.

However, given the Chinese Communist Party’s pattern of saying one thing and doing another—its strong challenges to and infiltration of the United States—many such activities have been exposed by the U.S. intelligence community, and a consensus has long been reached across the American political spectrum. In the eyes of many Americans, Xi’s statements merely serve to conceal the CCP’s real intention of undermining the United States.

Moreover, during the “Two Sessions” in March 2021, Xu Qiliang, then Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, revealed the reason for increasing military spending during discussions among delegates. He stated that after Trump’s presidency and the COVID-19 pandemic, relations between the United States and mainland China had become tense, and both sides found it difficult to escape the “Thucydides Trap.” Therefore, China should increase military expenditures for modernization and prepare for an inevitable war. Xu believed that mainland China would soon surpass the United States as an economic power, with GDP exceeding 70% of its rival’s. He emphasized: “In the face of the Thucydides Trap and border issues, the military must accelerate the enhancement of its capabilities. The CCP’s military must achieve breakthroughs in combat methods and capabilities to lay a solid foundation for modernization.”

Xu Qiliang’s statement that both sides could hardly escape the “Thucydides Trap” actually reflects the true thinking of Xi and the CCP: if the CCP aims to become the world’s hegemon, it must challenge U.S. “hegemony.” Xi’s claim during his meetings with Trump that “the Thucydides Trap can be avoided” is merely a delaying tactic.

Undoubtedly, regardless of how Xi Jinping expresses that the CCP has no intention of provoking the United States, for the Trump administration—aware of how the CCP colludes with global terrorism and harms the world and the United States—it will never be easily convinced and is actively dismantling such schemes with extraordinary courage and wisdom.

For example, before Xi’s visit to the United States, Trump signed the “2026 Lindsey Graham Sanctions Act on Russia and Iran” and reached a trilateral security agreement with Denmark and Greenland. The former imposes severe sanctions on countries or entities that conduct trade with nations under U.S. sanctions. If Chinese companies were subjected to “secondary sanctions,” the losses for the CCP would be immense. The latter agreement allows the United States to indefinitely expand its military presence in Greenland and exploit mineral resources, completely excluding Chinese and Russian influence and capital. One may ask: in today’s world, aside from the United States, which country could achieve this?

Furthermore, after Xi Jinping arrived in the United States, Trump directly demonstrated America’s military strength to him. First, six F-16s and six F-22 fighter jets were parked on both sides of the runway at Andrews Air Force Base when Xi’s plane landed. Then, during the simple welcoming ceremony at the airport, as the U.S. national anthem was played, two supersonic B-1B bombers roared overhead. The B-1B is a supersonic heavy long-range strategic bomber currently in service with the U.S. military.

The third demonstration occurred at the official welcoming ceremony held at the White House the following day, where a B-2 “Spirit” stealth bomber and four F-22 “Raptor” fighter jets flew over the White House. The B-2 bomber is one of the ultimate symbols of U.S. military power; last year it carried out a long-range strike on Iran, completing the “Midnight Hammer” operation against Iranian nuclear facilities, shocking the world.

Xi thus experienced the formidable strength of the U.S. military up close. Trump made no attempt to conceal his intentions. On September 25, in a White House statement, it was noted that “President Trump and the First Lady hosted the highest-level state visit welcome ceremony, including gift exchanges, silent drill platoon review, military inspection, and flyovers—demonstrating America’s strength and hospitality.”

On the same day, U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns stated in an exclusive interview with CNBC: “I believe we have demonstrated to China that the United States is by no means a declining power, and that the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ is a false proposition.”

As Trump stated at the United Nations General Assembly: “While others merely talk, I have acted. While others talk about peace, I have delivered peace. While others ignore threats, I have confronted them. While others speak of courage, America has shown courage. While others promise strength, I have used strength to make America the most powerful nation in the world.” “Communism will never prevail in the United States.”

(People News first release) △