Inside the Hong Kong Crisis: Li Keqiang’s Two Bottom Lines and Xi Jinping’s Cold Response

On March 5, 2023, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (right) walked past Chinese President Xi Jinping after delivering the government work report during the opening session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. (Photo by Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images)

[People News] Shanghai entrepreneur Hu Liren previously announced on his YouTube program "Real China" that he would mobilise all his social resources to investigate the cause of death of former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. He also pledged to publicly release valuable materials such as Li Keqiang’s personal notes and letters. On July 28, Hu Liren published one of Li Keqiang’s handwritten notes, which recorded a direct confrontation between Li and Xi Jinping during the 2019 Hong Kong "anti-extradition" protests, due to their differing political views.

Hu stated that this important note reflects Li Keqiang’s inner thoughts and efforts in facing the Hong Kong crisis at the time.

On June 9, 2019, mass protests erupted in Hong Kong over the proposed amendment to the Extradition Law.

Li Keqiang’s note mentions that hundreds of thousands of Hong Kong residents took to the streets to defend the rule of law and the principle of "One Country, Two Systems." Initially, the protests remained peaceful and orderly. However, the central government quickly labelled the event as the early signs of a colour revolution, abandoning communication efforts and turning to a hardline approach. This led to violent clashes between police and protesters on June 12.

The note states that Li Keqiang warned during a State Council meeting that extreme caution was needed in handling the matter. He recommended establishing a cross-sectoral hearing mechanism to enhance transparency in decision-making. However, as the situation evolved, the mediation role of the State Council was weakened, and policymaking was increasingly dominated by the national security apparatus. What could have been resolved through negotiation ultimately became a turning point in the political system.

The note reads: "In the spring and summer of 2019, I submitted three proposals calling for a temporary suspension of the extradition bill to avoid escalation, and for the establishment of a central-authorised communication mechanism to jointly address public concerns. But the State Council was gradually sidelined, with Xi Jinping taking full control of the decision-making process. Execution of policies was handed over to the political-legal system. The only reply I received was: ‘Hong Kong and Macao affairs are now under the management of the national security system.’"

As protesters continued to petition with no response, and the Hong Kong government insisted on pushing through the bill with no sign of compromise from Beijing, peaceful expression began to lose effectiveness. From mid-June, increasingly radical behaviours emerged among some members of the public.

The note records that Li Keqiang proposed the creation of a youth dialogue mechanism to rebuild communication bridges, but this was rejected by the central leadership. Li also believed the Sino-British Joint Declaration was a legally binding international treaty. If it were dismissed as "expired," it would undermine China's credibility in global governance. However, the State Council no longer had any say in the matter—Xi Jinping personally decided the response strategy.

Li tried to persuade Xi.

After the police-protester conflict in Hong Kong in June 2019, Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping had a brief meeting. Li told Xi that there were two bottom lines that must not be crossed in handling the Hong Kong crisis:

1. Respect the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which was not only an international commitment but also a systemic guarantee for Hong Kong’s long-term stability.

2. Immediately halt all forms of violence and ensure the safety and basic rights of Hong Kong citizens.

Xi Jinping coldly responded to Li: "This is not the time to talk about international commitments, rule of law, or freedom. At the heart of the Hong Kong issue lies national sovereignty and regime security. It must be tightly controlled. There must be absolutely no concessions. If necessary, force can be used at all costs. Don’t forget, the Communist Party seized power through the barrel of a gun."

Li Keqiang could only remain silent.

The note captures Li’s view of Xi at the time: "His words fully revealed the cruelty and cold-blooded nature deep in his bones. In his eyes, the people’s voices have no value, and concepts like promises, institutions, and the rule of law are all things to be trampled. As long as regime stability is maintained, any action is justified—even if it means spilling the blood and lives of the people."

Later in 2020, during a closed-door State Council meeting, Li Keqiang said, "The Hong Kong incident is not just a change in one city, but a tragedy for the entire nation. When power lacks self-restraint, it will inevitably erode the foundations of the system."
This comment was removed from the meeting minutes, leaving only a vague reference: “Hong Kong remarks should be handled cautiously.” Li later wrote down his full statement again in his notes, hoping that history would be the ultimate judge.

Li Keqiang stated in the note that this experience was one of the most profound and painful chapters of his political career. It marked the end of a constitutional experiment and recorded the last efforts and voices he could offer.

Hu Liren emphasised that although Li Keqiang could not change the outcome of the Hong Kong crisis, he reminded us that systems, trust, and restraint should never be easily abandoned.

Hu concluded by saying that during his tenure as premier, Li Keqiang had serious conflicts and disagreements with Xi Jinping on several major events. He documented his thoughts and actions in writing. These materials have never been made public before and are vital historical records for understanding that period.

(First published by People News)