Mid-Autumn Mooncake Market Cools: Consumption Downgrade and Food Safety Concerns

mooncake (VCG/VCG via Getty Images)

[People News] Mooncakes, as an iconic mass-consumption food, not only carry deep cultural significance but have also become a barometer of holiday consumer spending. The supply and sales of mooncakes are often closely tied to the economic cycle. During economic booms, they transform into high-end social status symbols; during economic downturns, they directly expose the awkward reality of shrinking consumption. Mooncake sales are like stock market candlestick charts, revealing the mood of ordinary people’s wallets at a glance.

In Mid-Autumn 2025, while the moon is full and families reunite, the mooncake market is in shambles. Overall mooncake sales fell more than 45% year-on-year, high-end gift boxes nearly vanished, and department stores and supermarkets faced severe unsold inventory. Compared to previous years, the decline is the steepest on record, showing that consumers are cautious in the economic winter of China.

Volume and Price Both Drop, High-End Gift Boxes Ignored, “One-Yuan Mooncakes” Trend Against the Tide

On the eve of Mid-Autumn 2025, the mooncake market faced a harsh situation of simultaneous volume and price decline. According to monitoring by China Report Hall, nationwide mooncake sales from mid-September to the core pre-festival period fell 45.17% year-on-year, with total annual sales projected at only 32.5 billion yuan, a slower growth rate of 8.3% compared to 30 billion yuan in 2024. Supermarket mooncake sections were almost empty, and online platforms faced similar pressure: JD.com reported cumulative sales of 91,000 mooncakes in early to mid-August, down 43% year-on-year, with revenue of 5.5 million yuan, a drop of 55%. These figures reflect consumers’ “tightening wallets” mindset under economic uncertainty, shifting holiday consumption from the previous “buy, buy, buy” to rational restraint.

The high-end gift box market was particularly bleak. Once-popular ultra-expensive products, such as shark fin and abalone mooncakes, nearly disappeared. Mooncakes priced over 500 yuan per box fell from 7.2% of the market in 2023 to 1.8% in 2025, with most gift boxes now priced around 150 yuan. Meanwhile, low-priced “one-yuan mooncakes” bucked the trend to become an online shopping craze; related videos on Taobao and Douyin saw explosive views, with netizens joking, “Finally, the people’s welfare has arrived.” Bulk orders for charity also shrank significantly. Reports indicated that a Suzhou mooncake brand’s group purchase volume dropped to 60% of last year’s, and orders from internet companies in Shanghai and Zhejiang fell by 30-40%, with large orders virtually disappearing. This “consumption downgrade” trend is not limited to mooncakes: prices for hairy crabs fell 10% around Mid-Autumn, hotel packages had only 70% booking rates, and National Day holiday travel shifted to nearby “budget trips.”

From the production side, overcapacity intensified market pressure. Data from the China Baked Food and Confectionery Industry Association shows that in 2025, over 5,000 mooncake companies in China had a total production capacity of 800,000 tons, a 10% increase year-on-year, but actual output was only 450,000 tons, with a utilization rate below 60%. Large Beijing supermarkets stocked three times their usual inventory but faced a 15% return rate; Shenzhen OEM factories reduced orders by 15% and switched to flexible production and OEM to clear inventory. Price wars escalated, with inventory expected to clear by late October. Market share this autumn further concentrated among leading brands: Dao Xiang Cun and Xing Hua Lou, leveraging channel and premium advantages, held 55% of the market; small and medium-sized enterprises fell from 35% to 28%, with sales dropping 10-20%. This pattern highlights accelerated industry reshuffling and internal competition during economic downturns, significantly squeezing the survival space for small enterprises.

Consumption Downgrade Meets “Technological Harshness”: Mooncake Safety Becomes a Focus

With China’s economic downturn, the glory of holiday consumption has faded, and people have shifted from revenge spending to survival-focused spending. Nationwide surveys show 45% of households reduced holiday budgets by 20%, focusing on “basic consumption,” with mooncakes downgraded from high-end gifts to everyday purchases. A middle-class family in Beijing shared on social media a “frugal Mid-Autumn”: “We’re not buying high-end mooncakes this year, switching to loose and homemade ones to save money for emergencies.” Netizens commented, “Last year we bought four boxes, this year two—happy on a budget.” iiMedia reports show mooncakes have shifted from “holiday necessity” to “optional snack,” and emotional expression is increasingly digital, e.g., sending online Mid-Autumn greetings suffices. Consumption downgrade extends beyond mooncakes: hairy crab prices dropped 10%, hotel Mid-Autumn packages only 70% booked, and National Day holidays saw nearby budget trips.

Another major factor driving consumers away from mooncakes is the “technological harshness” in industrial production. According to national food and drug regulatory data, mooncake manufacturers overuse additives such as sodium benzoate and preservatives to extend shelf life and improve taste, with an over-limit rate of around 12%. Videos on social platforms show some brands’ mooncakes contain industrial syrup or unknown chemicals that even ants and dogs won’t eat. One netizen took out mooncakes bought two years ago from their fridge, which looked freshly purchased, calling it terrifying. On September 16, a blogger revealed that salted egg yolk mooncakes used starch and colorants to simulate “artificial salted egg yolks,” sparking online debate.

Recent incidents hit the nerve. On September 28, a food factory accident occurred in Hepu County, Beihai, Guangxi, with a viral post claiming a worker’s arm fell into a mixer, producing “human flesh mooncakes” in the market. Local authorities denied casualties, but netizens widely questioned official suppression of the truth.

The Paper reported that on September 8, Mr. Chen bought 35 boxes of “Nanjing Guanshengyuan Liyue Mid-Autumn” mooncakes from six Hema stores in Nanjing, spending 7,629.82 yuan. At home, he noticed the packaging indicated a production date of August 26, 2025, with a shelf life until November 25, 2025, but under blue light, faint numbers showed “2024.” A mooncake from RT-Mart even listed a banned additive, sodium dehydroacetate, in its ingredients—per the National Food Safety Standard (GB 2760-2024), this substance has been prohibited for mooncakes and other baked goods since February 8, 2025. Netizens commented, “Add preservatives so the shelf life lasts generations,” pinpointing the industry’s core issue.

China’s “technological harshness” in mooncakes has also disrupted international markets, triggering scandals and a dual crisis of food safety and consumer trust abroad. On September 24, Tencent News reported that Chinese mooncakes (e.g., Starbucks co-branded) on U.S. supermarket shelves were all labeled with warnings; return rates rose 30%. California Proposition 65 requires products containing potential carcinogens to carry warning labels. Chinese mooncakes use titanium dioxide (E171), a class 2B carcinogen, as a whitening agent at 0.1%-0.5%, earning a U.S. “cancer risk” label.

Chinese-made mooncakes also contain acrylamide, a class 2A carcinogen. Salted egg yolk lotus paste mooncakes exceed EU limits by ten times; after U.S. media exposure, North American sales fell 15% in 2025. In 2023, over 10,000 tons of mooncakes exported to Europe were returned for adding colorants and flavoring agents. Mooncakes exported to South Korea that year were entirely rejected due to the banned additive sodium dehydroacetate.

A netizen commented: “I left leftover mooncakes from Mid-Autumn on my windowsill; the next day they were crawling with dead ants.” Another replied: “The Chinese people are immune to all poisons, the best humans-minerals in history.” Some joked that exported mooncakes are the best, foreigners won’t eat them, leaving them for us; for ordinary people, there’s only multi-preservative mooncakes.

Class Stratification on the Tongue: Secret Luxury of Special Mooncakes

While the mass market falters, special mooncakes quietly exist as a “gold standard,” rooted in the CCP’s special supply system. Insiders reveal that the annual production of power-symbolizing special mooncakes is less than 1% of the total market. Unlike industrially and standardized mass mooncakes, special mooncakes emphasize “purity and exclusivity,” differing greatly in craftsmanship, food safety, and sales channels.

Mass-market mooncakes are highly industrialized, using high-pressure filling machines and automated baking lines at 180–220℃, achieving annual production in the tens of thousands of tons. Technological harshness enables a shelf life of up to a year. Special mooncakes, in contrast, return to traditional handmade methods, avoiding “technological harshness” and emphasizing “ancient reproduction.” Netizens reveal that mooncakes supplied to the Great Hall of the People use Ming and Qing palace techniques: fillings ground by hand (e.g., red bean paste uses pure white kidney beans, ground 48 hours to release natural sweetness), dough hand-rolled from aged glutinous rice flour, baked in wood-fired ovens with temperature fluctuations controlled within ±5℃ to avoid high-heat carcinogens like acrylamide. Special mooncakes can be custom-made for different health needs.

In 2025, an internal “Zhongnanhai Custom” record showed special mooncakes 8 inches in diameter, 1.5 cm thick, with 70% filling versus 50% for mass-market mooncakes, tasting “rich but not greasy, soft, and sweet.” Their shelf life is only 15–30 days, requiring cold-chain transport, highlighting the luxury logic of “freshness first.” This method originates from Mao-era “Zhongnanhai small gardens.” Special mooncakes are not sold publicly, but VIP members of high-end clubs with connections can obtain “sky-high custom” mooncakes (over 10,000 yuan per jin).

Conclusion: China’s Multiple Economic Dilemmas and Systemic Traps

The slump in the Mid-Autumn 2025 mooncake market reflects consumption downgrade and food safety risks under China’s economic downturn. Leading enterprises face overcapacity, small and medium-sized enterprises struggle to survive, special mooncakes outclass ordinary ones, and ordinary consumers fret over “one-yuan welfare,” while the elite enjoy “pure health.” Netizens exclaimed, “Palace version vs chemical version, the barriers are hardcore.”

Mooncakes are not just food and gifts—they are cultural bonds and mirrors of the system.

(First published by People News) △