Hainan's 96-Hour Closure: A National Strategy Becomes a Meat Grinder

Most netizens are pessimistic about Hainan's closure. (Video screenshot)

[People News] The island-wide closure of Hainan officially began on December 18, 2025, with the goal of transforming the Hainan Free Trade Port into an independent tariff zone to promote trade and investment liberalisation and high-level openness. However, contrary to expectations, online videos reveal that prices in Hainan have surged, while real estate prices have sharply declined, leading to a significant drop in value. The office rental areas are completely dark and empty at night.

In a program aired on December 22 last year, Lao Zhang, the host of the YouTube channel "Insight," noted that Hainan's customs clearance lasted only 96 hours from December 18 to 22. For the influential figures in Zhonghai, who sit on leather sofas reviewing insider information, these 96 hours may seem like a mere ripple in a teacup or just a document awaiting approval. However, for the over 9 million permanent residents trapped in the vast walled city of Hainan Island, as well as countless investors who naively invested their life savings into this bottomless pit, these 96 hours represent a collapse of faith—a period when the so-called national strategy transformed overnight into a meat grinder.

Lao Zhang provided an example, explaining that Hainan, being a tropical region, is known for its abundant banana production. Yet, following the closure, the price of bananas skyrocketed to 4.68 yuan per pound, while in Hunan Province, the price is only 1.68 yuan per pound.

Lao Zhang emphasised that zero tariffs are designed for businesses, specifically for value-added processing, rather than for the everyday lives of ordinary citizens. This cannot be considered a shopping paradise; it is clearly a massive scam. The profits from the eliminated tariffs have not been passed on to consumers. Instead, through monopolistic tax-exempt licenses, exorbitant rents, and high operating costs, the profits are ultimately funnelled back into the pockets of state-owned enterprises. Are you going out to shop? No, you are merely paying another form of tax.

The real estate market is a deeply painful topic for the local middle class. The current situation in Hainan's real estate sector resembles being skinned alive, as it faces a wave of sell-offs. By noon on December 22, the number of second-hand homes listed in Haikou and Sanya had surged by 15%. Why is everyone choosing to sell their homes at this moment? Because the illusion has been shattered, and people are now acutely aware of the significant uncertainties brought about by the second-tier regulations. Hainan has turned into a concrete cage where capital can enter but cannot exit. What previously supported the foundation of Hainan's real estate market? It was the migratory elderly from Northeast and North China. However, everyone is now aware of the current state of the mainland economy; whether pensions will be paid on time is now a pressing concern.

Lao Zhang remarked that the current vacancy rate of major office buildings in Haikou is alarmingly high. The once-bustling headquarters economic zone in Sanya is now completely dark at night. Without industries, there are no high-paying jobs, and without those jobs, who can sustain property prices of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan per square meter? Many so-called sea-view apartments have owners who have drastically reduced their prices, yet there is still no interest from buyers. In fact, the number of foreclosed properties is on the rise. Those who gambled by heavily leveraging their investments are now facing broken capital chains. For them, the closure is not a solution to their financial woes, but rather a deadly trap.

Recently, a video from a real estate agent in Hainan has gone viral on social media. The agent, known as 'Lei Ge', has over twenty years of experience in the Hainan market. In the video, he claims that on the fifth day of Hainan's closure, the property prices have become a laughingstock.

He begins by discussing Haikou, where the most expensive area used to be Haikou Guoxin Avenue, with prices reaching 25,000 yuan per square meter. Last year, it was believed that prices could stabilise at 18,000, but this year they have plummeted to 12,000. All these properties are large projects and are fully completed.

'Lei Ge' notes that many people are asking him whether it is a good time to buy properties in the Jiangdong New District's Guanlan Lake West Coast in Haikou. He believes that Jiangdong New District is perceived by the public as the future of Hainan, a key area for the free trade port. However, it is now the region experiencing the fastest decline in property prices. For instance, the previously best-selling property, Qianjiang Yue, which once had a unit price of over 20,000, has seen new launches drop to 17,000. 'For a standard floor, I can sell at a unit price of 12,000. Those who bought at 20,000 before are truly the unfortunate ones.'

Brother Lei expressed his concerns, noting that on the West Coast, commodity housing prices have already surpassed 8,000 yuan per square meter, particularly in large community and school district developments. Meanwhile, villas near the duty-free city in Haikou have seen prices drop to around 10,000 yuan per square meter.

In the old town centre of Haikou, new residential properties are now listed at over 5,000 yuan per square meter. Additionally, seaside properties and industrial villas in Hainan have seen their unit prices fall to two or three thousand yuan when calculated by usable area.

Furthermore, 'Xikang', a Chengdu blogger with 125,000 followers, recently raised doubts about the real estate market in Hainan following the closure. He remarked that Hainan claimed it would replace Hong Kong and surpass Singapore after the closure. However, housing prices plummeted sharply afterwards, leading to a direct collapse, which has become the biggest joke.

'Xikang' believes that the closure represents a reckoning, stating, 'Hainan's real estate is even falling short compared to cities like Chengdu. It has truly collapsed, and this is just the beginning; the decline will be even more severe, possibly worse than in other regions of the country. The infrastructure, economic scale, development prospects, and past performance of Hainan Island all demonstrate its inability to succeed in anything, excelling only in speculation. This is Hainan, and the ultimate outcome is just a chaotic mess.'

Overseas netizens have commented: 'Directly commanding, directly deploying, and directly causing a mess', 'Wrong decisions are more frightening than corruption, and ignorant leadership is scarier than natural disasters', 'Initially, Xiong'an New Area was filled with confidence', 'Hong Kong was doing well, but now it’s ruined! It’s laughable', 'Wrong decisions are more frightening than corruption, and ignorant leadership is scarier than natural disasters', 'Initially, Xiong'an New Area was filled with confidence', 'General Secretary Xi (Xi Jinping) stated: I will definitely not succeed', 'This is the first time I’ve heard of a country creating a plan not to win against others, but to destroy another part of itself... Is it a sense of superiority to harm your own people instead of defeating others?' 

 'The offshore RMB already indicates that it’s impossible; a country that cannot freely exchange currency still aspires to replace others. Little pinks can deceive their own people, but foreigners are not naive', 'Hainan Island will not become Hong Kong, but Hong Kong will become Hainan Island', 'It’s quite simple: a regime that can turn an international financial center into ruins cannot possibly rebuild an international financial center from those ruins', 'Only a fool would attempt to develop Hainan Island'. 

 'After Hainan Free Trade Port closes its borders, public discourse is fervently debating whether it can replace Hong Kong, outperform Singapore, and benchmark Dubai. Hainan does have the potential for success, but these prospects also carry risks of failure. Rather than claiming that Hainan can replace Hong Kong or surpass Singapore, it’s more accurate to say such assertions are merely overly optimistic fantasies that allow little pinks to indulge in self-satisfaction.' △