Latest News: Zhang Youxia's Entire Family Has Been Arrested, Along With Liu Zhenli and Zhong Shaojun

(Cai Shenkun X)

[People News] On January 21, rumours about Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, being arrested have spread rapidly in overseas Chinese political circles. It is also rumoured that military committee member Liu Zhenli was arrested at the same time. The incident originated from their absence at an important meeting held in Beijing on January 20. In a short time, this rumour quickly transformed into a Hollywood-style drama, featuring a plot where Xi Jinping and Cai Qi collaborate to orchestrate the arrests, with vivid details of the arrest process. While much of this is likely to be public speculation, many still believe that the likelihood of Zhang Youxia facing serious trouble is quite low.

However, independent commentator Cai Shenkun confirmed the latest news on X at around 11 PM Eastern Time on January 21: Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, and Zhong Shaojun were all arrested simultaneously, and all of Zhang Youxia's family members were also taken into custody. High-level officials within the Communist Party have already been notified. In addition to missing the opening ceremony of a special seminar for provincial and ministerial-level leaders to study and implement the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, Zhang Youxia also missed the previously scheduled annual event at the National Defence University. More importantly, the wreath sent by Zhang Youxia for the late former Deputy Chief of Staff General Wei Fulin was also ordered to be removed at the last minute.

As of now, this news has not been confirmed by the official Communist Party of China. Let us review the entire timeline of the rumours surrounding Zhang Youxia's arrest.

On January 20, a so-called "thematic seminar" related to the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session was inaugurated at the Central Party School in Beijing, attended by high-ranking officials from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The podium featured the seven members of the Standing Committee and CCP Vice Chairman Han Zheng, with the meeting chaired by Premier Li Qiang, who also delivered a speech.

As reported by CCTV, attendees included Politburo members, secretaries of the Secretariat, the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, the Deputy Chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, State Councilors, the President of the Supreme Court, the Prosecutor General of the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and Vice Chairmen of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

Sharp-eyed viewers noted that in the front row of the Central Politburo members' seating, newly appointed Vice Chairman of the Military Commission and Secretary of the Military Discipline Inspection Commission Zhang Shengmin was present, while Zhang Youxia was notably absent. The military delegation also included Minister of Defence Dong Jun.

Three other Politburo members were absent from the meeting: former Xinjiang Secretary Ma Xingrui, Minister of the Organisation Department Shi Taifeng, and Vice Premier He Lifeng.

Ma Xingrui has missed several important meetings recently, making his potential downfall seem almost inevitable. He Lifeng has been confirmed by official sources to be attending the Davos Forum in Switzerland from January 19 to 22. The reason for Shi Taifeng's absence remains unclear.

Reflecting on the opening ceremony of the "thematic seminar for major provincial and ministerial leaders related to the 20th Central Committee's Third Plenary Session" held on October 29, 2024, Zhang Youxia was seated in the front row alongside then Vice Chairman of the Military Commission He Weidong, who has since fallen from grace in 2025. At that time, both were members of the Politburo. Now, the meeting is attended by Zhang Shengmin, who is not a Politburo member, and Dong Jun.

The external perception is that Zhang Youxia missed an important meeting that he should not have skipped. This unusual occurrence has quickly led to widespread speculation, with rumours proliferating like vines on overseas social media platforms.

The account 'China-Japan Political and Economic Commentary' appears to be one of the first to break the news. It stated: 'The grand event at the start of 2026, the two vice-chairmen of the Military Commission from the 20th National Congress have successfully convened.' Additionally, it shared a photo of Zhang Youxia sitting alongside He Weidong.

Shortly thereafter, the account posted again, stating: 'Vice Chairman Zhang's son was also taken away, wearing a black hood, which carries a significant humiliation...'

Su Xiaohe, a writer and economist based in the United States, detailed the circumstances surrounding Zhang Youxia's arrest. He reported that Xi Jinping had set up an ambush of 100 personnel at the Central Party School, while Zhang Youxia had only four bodyguards with him. Aware of being outnumbered, Zhang Youxia remained remarkably calm and did not resist, and was later moved to a secret location.

Lawrence, a self-media figure, disclosed that Zhang Youxia was arrested at the Beijing Jingxi Hotel on January 17.

Australian self-media commentator Jiang Wangzheng, known for revealing the inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party, stated during a live broadcast late on January 20 that he had learned earlier that day about Zhang Youxia being summoned, as well as the investigation into Zhang's son and his confidential secretary, and the detention of Liu Zhenli. After confirming the information, he decided to report it now.

However, he believes that Xi Jinping will not conduct a formal investigation into Zhang Youxia, but will only summon him for a discussion.

Being summoned for an interview primarily serves as a form of oversight, potentially requiring individuals to explain their circumstances and clarify the facts. The goal is to encourage self-reflection from the interviewee, essentially acting as a wake-up call.

In contrast, being investigated suggests that one may already be implicated in criminal activities.

Detention is a coercive measure employed by disciplinary inspection authorities. During the detention period, individuals under investigation are completely isolated from the outside world. The maximum duration of detention can extend up to 16 months. There is a rumour that once someone enters the detention room of the disciplinary committee, aside from reflecting on their crimes, there is nothing else to do. Ultimately, everything is confessed; no one can withstand the pressure.

Thus, in observing Liu Zhenli, we assess whether he reappears in the public eye. If he remains absent for an extended period, it is likely that he is in danger.

The following day, January 21, Jiang Wangzheng reported again that the Communist Party of China had formed a political review group under the Central Military Commission, led by Xi Jinping's confidant, Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi. This situation is relatively unusual. Why is Cai Qi in charge instead of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection or the Military Discipline Inspection Commission? Jiang Wangzheng explained that when a member of the Central Committee faces issues, it is the First Secretary of the Central Secretariat who conducts the investigation. Currently, Cai Qi serves as the First Secretary of the Central Secretariat.

He revealed that after Zhang Youxia signed several documents, he returned home that afternoon, but Zhang Youxia's son and his confidential secretary were taken away. Subsequently, on the morning of January 21, both Zhang Youxia's administrative secretary and duty secretary were also taken away. On the evening of January 20, several military officers who dined with Zhang Youxia's administrative secretary were also summoned to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.

According to reliable information obtained by Jiang Wangzheng, Zhang Shengmin holds a certain influence over the Military Discipline Commission, but both Zhang Youxia and Zhang Shengmin are part of a shared interest group. Currently, the work related to the Military Discipline Commission is reported to Cai Qi. Jiang Wangzheng speculates that the issues concerning Zhang Youxia may be quite serious, but further observation and verification are necessary.

First, we need to address another incident related to the arrest of Zhang Youxia.

On January 18, an explosion occurred at the steam ball tank in the Baogang Steel Plate Factory in Inner Mongolia. When Inner Mongolia Secretary Wang Weizhong visited to 'guide the work,' he emphasised the need to implement the directives from Cai Qi, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party. Wang Weizhong's elevation of Cai Qi to such a prominent position surprised many observers.

However, subsequent reports from the Inner Mongolia News Network indicated that the name 'Cai Qi' had been replaced with 'Central Leadership Comrades,' and it was reported that Wang Weizhong stated, 'We must quickly implement the spirit of the instructions from the Central Leadership Comrades.'

In response, Cai Shenkun posted on the X platform, noting that Wang Weizhong had elevated Cai Qi to a very significant position, causing Cai Qi to break out in a cold sweat. This is noteworthy because similar past directives typically only included Xi Jinping's name, with Li Qiang's name being rarely mentioned. Does this imply that the scale of the explosion did not meet the standards set by Xi Jinping's directives? Or has Cai Qi assumed part of Xi Jinping's authority?

The sudden emergence of Cai Qi seemingly overstepping Xi Jinping's authority raises the question: has there been a shift in the power dynamics in the South China Sea?

Political commentator Chen Pokuang analysed on social media that the shift from a directive by Cai Qi to one from central leadership may indicate that something significant has occurred politically with Xi Jinping. Another possibility is that Xi Jinping has suddenly fallen ill, and no one is willing to take responsibility for issuing directives in his stead, fearing that he might truly be in a coma.

Chen Pokuang also suggested that it cannot be ruled out that Xi Jinping is feigning illness to stage a counterattack against Zhang Youxia and the elders in order to reclaim power. This speculation follows a major explosion in Inner Mongolia, after which rumours surfaced online on January 20 regarding the arrests of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli.

Chen Pokuang posits that it is possible Cai Qi is collaborating with Xi Jinping in a staged act, where Xi Jinping pretends to be ill and cannot issue directives, allowing Cai Qi to act on his behalf. Under the impression that Xi Jinping is gravely ill and without defences, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli may have been successfully counterattacked, leading to Cai Qi being referred to as 'Central Leadership Comrade.'

Of course, there are many influential figures who doubt the reliability of the news regarding Zhang Youxia's arrest.

Former Navy Command Headquarters Major Staff Yao Cheng believes that Xi Jinping has lost power within the military and lacks the ability to arrest Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli.

Recently, Yao Cheng disclosed in a live broadcast that Zhang Youxia is expected to resign as Vice Chairman of the Military Commission during next year's Two Sessions, setting an example by stepping down first, thereby pressuring Xi Jinping to resign from his roles as President and Chairman of the Military Commission. Consequently, the recent rumours circulating online about Zhang Youxia's troubles and Cai Qi's directives concerning the Baotou Steel explosion are not without basis. Yao Cheng noted that while some individuals within the Communist Party hope for Xi Jinping to step down soon, they do not support the idea of arresting him, as it could lead to severe internal upheaval within the Communist Party and jeopardise the stability of the regime.

Du Wen, the former Executive Director of the Legal Advisory Office of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Government, has directly stated that the rumours regarding Zhang Youxia's arrest are unfounded.

He explained that historically, not attending such meetings does not imply a purge. Statistics show that this is the 13th seminar of its kind held since Xi Jinping assumed power, and not every Politburo member has attended every seminar. This means there is no strict requirement for Zhang Youxia to be present. Simply missing one meeting is not enough to indicate that something has happened to him.

Du Wen mentioned that if Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli continue to be absent from several important events in the future, it would be appropriate to discuss their situation at that time.

Professor Zhang Tianliang from Feitian University also concurs that it is unlikely Xi Jinping would arrest Zhang Youxia. He cites three reasons: first, he believes the rumoured conflict between Xi and Zhang does not actually exist. Second, Xi and Zhang share a strong relationship and are family friends; since Zhang Youxia was not implicated during the previous investigation of the General Equipment Department, that issue can be considered resolved. Third, if Zhang Youxia were to be removed, it would mean that both current Vice Chairmen of the Military Commission would have been ousted during Xi Jinping's leadership, which would be quite embarrassing.

He speculates that the absence of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli may be due to their prior participation in similar training sessions, making their attendance unnecessary this time.

Cai Shenkun has also received information from Zhang Youxia's secretary, asserting that the rumours of Zhang Youxia's arrest are entirely baseless.

Cai Shenkun analysed that for a considerable period, the anti-Xi faction had high expectations for Zhang Youxia, who held significant influence among the senior leaders. However, Zhang Youxia has been slow to take action. He posted on X that at the end of last year, a letter addressed to General Zhang Youxia surfaced online, urging him to align with the sentiments of the people and the party, and to launch a military coup against Xi Jinping.

Cai Shenkun believes this situation effectively places Zhang Youxia in a precarious position, compelling him to act swiftly. If Zhang Youxia were to be taken down by Xi at this juncture, it would be the inevitable result of his indecision at a critical moment, as he failed to take a stand.

This open letter calling for Zhang Youxia to 'initiate a military coup' was published in December last year by the X user 'New Heights'.

The letter argued that Zhang Youxia had only three options left at that time: to 'turn the fake into reality' and initiate a military coup, to 'exit with dignity', ensuring that his family would not face collective punishment, or to 'survive by any means' and wait to be secretly arrested. The letter urged Zhang Youxia to 'make a choice as soon as possible'.

After rumours surfaced suggesting that Zhang Youxia might be purged, 'New Heights' expressed regret, emphasising that they had called for Zhang Youxia to rebel over a month ago, stating that 'otherwise he would only have two outcomes left: death or arrest'.

Following this, Cai Shenkun posted again, indicating that he had received alarming news regarding Zhang Youxia's arrest, and the reports were becoming increasingly disturbing.

He posted: "I just heard that Wang Xiaohong's special security bureau has arrested military personnel, including Zhong Shaojun, who was recently released and has been taken away again, with a total of 17 people captured. Since the source of this information cannot be verified, it might be wise to let the situation unfold for a while and see if Zhang Youxia makes an appearance at the Spring Festival group visit. If Zhang Youxia is indeed arrested, it would indicate that Xi Jinping and the red family have fully revealed their intentions. The remaining drama will be to observe how the red family acts at critical moments. If the red family unites to counter, it is likely that not many of Xi Jinping's close allies will dare to resist until the end."

(Cai Shenkun X)

The information obtained by Jiang Wangzheng and Cai Shenkun appears to have been cross-verified. If this news is accurate, the "new high ground" is indeed a prophetic statement!

The opaque politics of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) remain a mystery to the outside world. Whenever it reveals even a hint of information, the outside world treats it as a treasure, and rumours are repeated and amplified time and again. Regarding the power struggles at the top, whether Xi Jinping will step down or if there will be a coup led by Zhang Youxia, these speculations help to fuel people's hopes for the CCP regime, as they look for someone within the upper echelons of the CCP who can address the current challenges facing China. But can these high-ranking officials truly save the country? Will they genuinely dismantle the CCP? If the end result is merely a replacement of Xi Jinping with another leader like Zhang Jinping or Wang Jinping, and the CCP's rule remains intact, is this really what the Chinese people wish to see?

(People News First Release)
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