Eliminating a Powerful Rival, Xi Still Gets No Moment of Relief

On March 8, 2024, military representatives attending the National People&9;s Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) arrived outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. (Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

[People News] After suddenly arresting his military ally, Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping has not shown any sign of relief or satisfaction in public appearances. On the contrary, whenever he appears on camera, he looks gloomy, with a dark and unlucky air about him. Clearly, the arrests of Zhang and Liu can hardly be described simply as “stirring up a hornet’s nest,” but they have indeed created many new problems for China’s political situation and its military.

After Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli fell from power on January 24, the CCP’s PLA Daily published four heavyweight front-page articles on January 25, January 31, February 1, and February 2. However, an unusual phenomenon emerged: the articles were downgraded in status from editorials to commentator pieces, and their tone became increasingly weaker.

For example, on January 25, the political verdict on Zhang and Liu used five “serious” charges, including “seriously trampling and sabotaging the system of responsibility of the CMC chairman.” But in the following three commentator articles, the focus of accusations shifted from political crimes to corruption, describing the case as a “major victory” in the anti-corruption struggle and calling on the entire army to achieve “rebirth through moulting.” This so-called “rebirth through moulting” clearly refers to a massive purge and complete blood replacement within the military. However, after arresting Zhang and Liu, can Xi Jinping truly eliminate all the military forces that support them? The difficulty is enormous—essentially impossible.

According to recent revelations by Du Wen, a former senior CCP official who fled overseas, military contacts he knows said that more than 60% of soldiers and over 80% of officers in today’s PLA sympathise with and support Zhang Youxia. In their eyes, Zhang Youxia is the true helmsman of the military. The downfall of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli shocked the entire army and left many stunned. Everyone also understands that Xi Jinping will next carry out a comprehensive purge throughout the military against so-called “Zhang–Liu faction” problems. Judging from the current posture, no one is safe.

In particular, Zhang Youxia promoted a large number of non-commissioned officers during his rise. These people are naturally tied to Zhang and will undoubtedly be labelled as remnants of his faction. No matter how much loyalty they profess to Xi Jinping, they cannot erase this mark. Anyone even indirectly associated with Zhang will not escape disaster. Moreover, those promoted by Zhang are spread across different systems and occupy key posts, making them highly influential generals. At present, large numbers of officers who had frequent contact with Zhang Youxia have been explicitly ordered to leave their posts and take leave, while many others have applied for transfer to civilian life. Everyone is living in fear, walking on thin ice. Du Wen said that many senior generals have also disappeared secretly and are likely to have been executed, with grim prospects.

Following Xi Jinping’s habitual methods, he wants to reduce hidden dangers to the minimum and “zero them out.” As a result, every person in the military is being forced to declare support for and loyalty to the Party Central Committee and to Chairman Xi. They are being driven into becoming two-faced. Not only must they make verbal declarations, but they must also write guarantees and ideological reports. Yet most people sympathise with Zhang Youxia, so while they are willing to write guarantees, they refuse to make public statements. This is true across the entire army, putting political officers sent by Xi into an extremely awkward position.

One army commander told Du Wen that in the CCP system, it is very difficult for the military to launch a mutiny; however, if Xi Jinping dares to come inspect the troops, he would personally dare to strike and kill Xi Jinping.

Since Xi Jinping wants to “zero out” all hidden dangers, the purge will inevitably involve all branches of the military. In addition, the “knife handle” (coercive apparatus) will not escape either—this includes the Party and government systems, the police, and the secret service organs, all of which must also be “cleared out.” With such actions, resentment is growing quietly within both the military and the Party-state system. This instead makes political turmoil more likely and could continue developing toward the collapse of the CCP. Thus, Xi is even less able to feel secure and is under even greater pressure.

Du Wen stated that future internal struggles within the PLA will be extremely brutal, with consequences beyond imagination, potentially causing greater losses than personnel reductions in an actual war.

China affairs expert Heng He stated that what is happening inside the military now is passive resistance. This kind of inaction is likely related to the failure of the top leadership to reach consensus on how to define the cases of Zhang and Liu, as reflected in the four PLA Daily articles. However, when major events that change history occur, the military—both generals and soldiers—has a choice: it can choose to stand with the people and stand on the side of justice. △