Experts: CCP Intimidation Backfired, Helping Japan’s Ruling Party Win Big

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won nearly 90% of the vote in her personal race. (People News / AI illustration)

[People News] On February 8, Japan’s lower house election concluded with a sweeping victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Some analysts say the biggest contributor to the LDP’s win—besides Takaichi herself and the party’s willingness to reinvent itself—may ironically have been Beijing.

According to experts familiar with Japanese politics, the Chinese Communist Party’s diplomatic intimidation, military pressure, economic coercion, and influence operations — tactics long familiar to voters in Taiwan — stirred Japanese public sentiment to defend national dignity. Many voters, they say, cast their ballots for Takaichi and the LDP as a way of protesting external bullying.

Media reports noted that after Takaichi declared last November that “a Taiwan contingency would be a survival crisis for Japan,” Beijing responded with forceful measures against Japan. An international affairs specialist said Beijing attempted a dual strategy of “using business to pressure politics” and “military deterrence,” hoping war-weary Japanese voters would abandon Takaichi, who was labeled a hawk.

Tourism restrictions, seafood import bans, repeated naval activity in the East China Sea, live-fire drills, and gray-zone harassment by Chinese coast guard vessels created real pressure. Japanese opposition parties briefly gained traction attacking what they called the “Takaichi Risk,” a phrase that became a trending keyword at the time.

But subsequent events — including drones circling near Yonaguni Island, radar targeting incidents involving Japanese aircraft, and Chinese diplomats openly mocking Japan’s prime minister online — triggered a backlash. Tactics long seen in Taiwan’s elections appeared to produce a similar psychological effect in Japan: the more intense the pressure, the stronger the voter resistance.

Later, the normalization of Chinese coast guard patrols around the Senkaku Islands made calls to strengthen national defense feel concrete rather than abstract. In the final two weeks of the campaign, reported Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports further heightened a sense of crisis among voters.

The expert noted that Takaichi’s camp, initially worried inflation and sanctions would hurt them, quickly adjusted. They shifted their campaign message from “economic recovery” to “defending Japan’s sovereignty and dignity.” For many centrist voters, supporting Takaichi became less about party loyalty and more about pushing back against foreign intimidation. The LDP’s sweep of all four seats in Okinawa was seen as especially telling under these circumstances.

The analyst sighed that for Taiwan, these pressure tactics are all too familiar. Each time Beijing tries to “teach voters a lesson” with missiles or military drills, it often drives votes toward the very side Beijing opposes most. Now, this “reverse mobilization effect” appears to have been replicated in Tokyo. Beijing’s attempt to generate “war anxiety” to weaken Takaichi instead reinforced the perceived need for her tougher stance on diplomacy and defense.

On February 8, Japan’s pro-China politician Katsuya Okada lost his election, showing that the Japanese public is saying NO to the Chinese Communist Party! (video screenshot)

At the same time, longtime lawmaker Katsuya Okada, often viewed as friendly toward Beijing, lost his seat — a result that also drew attention. Voters in his Mie 3rd District told reporters they were proud to have used democratic ballots to remove a veteran politician they saw as too close to China.

Okada had served since 1990 and won 12 consecutive terms, with a record of “10 straight wins” in the district. This time, however, he received 90,701 votes, losing to LDP candidate Masataka Ishihara, who secured 99,392. The upset surprised both Okada and observers.

Data showed most voters over 70 supported Okada, while younger age groups largely backed Ishihara. Online, many voters expressed dissatisfaction with Okada’s pro-China remarks. Some blamed him for contributing to worsening Japan–China tensions, especially after he questioned Takaichi in parliament last November over her “Taiwan contingency” comment. Beijing subsequently launched a series of retaliatory pressures, and Okada was seen as echoing Beijing’s stance by urging Takaichi to retract her words.

Voters in Mie reportedly mobilized friends and family to vote him out. Many Japanese and Taiwanese netizens praised them, posting comments such as:
“Japanese voters are impressive.”
“Mie is amazing — congratulations on removing a political tumor.”
“Even if the margin was close, that’s still powerful.”
“You have to admire the strength of democracy.”

Meanwhile, media also noted that Okada’s father, Takuya Okada, founded retail giant AEON, which has deep business ties with China. AEON has invested in China since 1996 and operates numerous stores there. Observers pointed out that AEON often seemed to avoid the brunt of Chinese economic retaliation against Japan, raising questions among voters about possible connections.

For many, the election result itself was the answer.

(First published by People News)