Cai Qi Signals Xi’s Waning Authority; Will Beidaihe Shape Fifth Plenum Agenda

The picture shows Cai Qi, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, attending the National People's Congress on March 12, 2023. (Screenshot from the web)

[People News] On August 3, reports from the CCP's party media indicated that Cai Qi, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and Secretary of the Central Secretariat, visited and consoled experts on summer vacation in Beidaihe, as entrusted by Xi Jinping. This news confirms that senior officials of the CCP, both active and retired, are currently vacationing in Beidaihe. In recent days, netizens have reported that traveling by train to Qinhuangdao and Beidaihe in Hebei requires a second security check.

According to the CCP's past practices, the informal Beidaihe meeting typically takes place in late July to early August each year. In addition to discussions and exchanges of opinions among current senior officials and party elders on various issues, high-ranking officials may also deliberate on significant matters. With the Fifth Plenary Session of the CCP scheduled for October this year, there is particular interest in whether the Beidaihe meeting will set the agenda and make decisions in advance, essentially determining the tone before the official meeting.

Although Xi Jinping has gradually diminished the political influence of the CCP elders and has reduced the significance of the Beidaihe meeting since taking power, rumors about the elders' behind-the-scenes political maneuvering have resurfaced, especially with Xi's health concerns anticipated in 2024 and the Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP in 2025 planning to include 'upholding the centralized and unified leadership of the Central Committee' in its decisions.

In January 2026, Xi Jinping regained some military authority by ousting Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department. Following this, Xi and his close associates aimed to restore their position of 'supreme authority.' However, six months later, it is clear that Xi has not fulfilled this ambition. Several of his close allies have fallen from power, and many members of the Politburo Standing Committee have expressed their dissatisfaction by refusing to adopt certain aspects of Xi's ideology and directives.

A significant sign of Xi's unfulfilled ambitions was the addition of 'centralized and unified leadership' to Xi's party-building thought during a party-building meeting held in mid-June. In June and July, senior Communist Party officials frequently referred to 'collective leadership' and emphasized the Party's leadership, while state media downplayed Xi's role and highlighted the seven standing committee members. Moreover, military publications removed Xi from their covers for two consecutive months, and the editorial of the August 1st Army Daily minimized references to 'Chairman Xi.' These signs indicate that Xi's power is being limited, and he is indeed unable to return to the previously dominant position of 'supreme authority.'

Additionally, Cai Qi's comments during a meeting with experts in Beidaihe further support this observation. When addressing the experts, Cai Qi realistically noted that since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party, 'the Party Central Committee with Xi at its core has based itself on... deeply implemented..., and accelerated the construction of...,' only later mentioning Xi's 'concern for experts and talent,' among other points.

What did Cai Qi say during previous years when meeting with experts in Beidaihe? In 2025, Cai Qi also began by discussing how 'the Party Central Committee with Xi at its core' has been functioning since the 18th National Congress, before mentioning Xi's 'constant concern for experts and talent.' At that time, Xi had already lost part of his party and military power.

In 2024, shortly after reports emerged that Xi Jinping had suffered a stroke, turmoil broke out within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). During a meeting with experts, Cai Qi expressed unwavering loyalty to Xi, stating that Xi "has always cared for and valued expert talent," and outlined a series of directives regarding talent development. He then discussed the Third Plenary Session without mentioning the "Party Central Committee." 

In 2023, when Xi was still the preeminent leader, Cai Qi described Xi's position by saying, "Xi Jinping and the Party Central Committee place great importance on talent work." Since the 18th National Congress of the CCP, Xi has "issued a series of important directives on talent work from the strategic perspective of achieving national rejuvenation," and so forth. This indicates that Xi was positioned above the "Party Central Committee." 

The shift in Cai Qi's statements reflects the changes in Xi's power status. As Xi is now compelled to submit to the "Party Central Committee," his status as the sole leader has effectively been diminished. 

Beyond Cai Qi's remarks, the news also highlighted changes in the list of high-ranking officials meeting with experts vacationing in Beidaihe. This year, the attendees included members of the CCP Politburo, such as Minister of Organization Shi Taifeng and State Councilor and Secretary-General of the State Council Wu Zhenglong. In contrast, the previous three years featured members like Minister of Organization Li Ganjie, State Councilor Chen Yiqin, and Vice Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Jiang Xinzhi. 

Thus, this year's meeting not only lacked the Vice Chairman of the National Committee but also saw a change in the attending State Councilors. The current State Councilors are Wang Xiaohong, Wu Zhenglong, and Chen Yiqin, listed in order of their official ranking. Notably, Wu Zhenglong, who serves as Li Qiang's secretary, ranks higher than Chen Yiqin. This raises the question of whether Wu Zhenglong's attendance this year is related to Li Qiang's impending significant role.

Recently, overseas reports suggested that Xi (Xí) would transfer power to Li Qiang during the Fifth Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China, with Li Qiang poised to become the next top leader. While this is merely one interpretation, it is an indisputable fact that changes have already taken place in Zhongnanhai, and Xi's power and influence have faced multiple constraints.

(First published by People News) △