Xi Jinping. (People News)
[People News] Reports indicate that on September 29, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China convened a meeting to confirm that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will take place from October 20 to 23. During this meeting, they also discussed a draft proposal for the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development, which is set to be submitted for review at the Fourth Plenary Session. Traditionally, this topic has been addressed during the Fifth Plenary Session. Other matters discussed at the meeting are likely related to personnel changes, which have garnered significant attention from the public.
Since the news of Xi's stroke surfaced after the Third Plenary Session last July, there have been continuous signs and leaks suggesting that Xi is losing both military and party power. Some analysts, myself included, believe that despite Xi's prominent appearances in the Communist Party's official media, many details indicate that this is merely a performance orchestrated by the Party's senior officials. However, such a performance cannot last indefinitely, and the Fourth Plenary Session represents a crucial opportunity to observe shifts in the Communist Party's power structure.
I contend that regardless of the final outcome—whether Xi steps down or retains one or two titles—the trend towards a return to collective leadership among the Communist Party's upper echelons is now irreversible. The news report from the 29th has already provided clues in this regard.
In the fifth paragraph of the report from the 29th, it states: The meeting emphasised that during the '15th Five-Year' period, economic and social development must uphold the Party's comprehensive leadership, resolutely maintain the authority of the Party Central Committee, and ensure centralised unified leadership....
Five years ago, on September 28, during the Politburo meeting that submitted the draft of the '14th Five-Year Plan' for consideration at the 19th Central Committee's Fifth Plenary Session, the relevant paragraph was articulated somewhat differently. It stated: 'To promote the economic and social development of our country during the '14th Five-Year' period, we must uphold the Party's comprehensive leadership...' However, it did not include the phrase 'resolutely safeguarding the authority of the Party Central Committee and its centralised and unified leadership.'
Moreover, the communiqué from the Fifth Plenary Session held at the end of October 2020 also lacked such wording. At that time, Xi Jinping's power was at its zenith, and his 'one supreme' status was being continuously reinforced by his close allies, making the absence of such phrasing quite understandable. Thus, the reemergence of the phrase 'resolutely safeguarding the authority of the Party Central Committee and its centralised and unified leadership' prior to the Fourth Plenary Session should not be viewed as a spur-of-the-moment decision.
From the author's ongoing observations, since July of last year, the People's Liberation Army Daily and state media have consistently signalled the importance of 'collective leadership,' with senior officials of the Communist Party of China repeatedly mentioning it, and even Xi Jinping has had to emphasise this in certain public settings.
The 'Decision' passed at the Third Plenary Session in July last year notably highlighted 'centralised and unified leadership.' On July 26, 2024, the People's Daily published an article stating that the successful implementation of the various reform tasks outlined in the 'Decision' 'depends on strengthening the Party's leadership, particularly the centralised and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee.'
On August 29, the Beijing Daily client published an article titled 'Adhering to the Centralised and Unified Leadership of the Party Central Committee is the Highest Political Principle.' The article highlighted Xi Jinping's assertion that this principle is 'the primary and fundamental guideline for advancing self-revolution' and represents 'the highest political principle and fundamental political direction.' It further emphasised that the Communist Party of China (CPC) has reached its current state by 'always adhering to the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee,' successfully navigating numerous crises. In light of a situation that is 'more complex than ever before,' it is increasingly important to 'leverage the key role of the centralised and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee to ensure that the entire Party acts in unison and with coordinated actions,' among other points.
Xi Jinping has referred to the need for 'strengthening the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee' during several significant occasions: on July 31 of last year at the sixteenth collective study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, on August 29 at the sixth meeting of the Central Committee for Deepening Overall Reform, on September 12 at a symposium in Lanzhou focused on ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin, and on December 16 at a symposium commemorating the 100th anniversary of Qiao Shi's birth. This emphasis on leadership has been relatively uncommon for Xi in recent years.
January 15 of this year marks the 90th anniversary of the Zunyi Conference, which the CPC considers a pivotal moment that saved the Party. On January 14 and 15, the CPC's Xinhua News Agency, the Military Daily, and CCTV published articles referencing this anniversary, once again indicating that the current CPC Central Committee has shifted from the 'Xi's supremacy' narrative to one centred on 'centralised and unified leadership.'
The military newspaper article includes a notable passage: "Whenever the entire party firmly upholds the authority of the Party Central Committee and centralised unified leadership, the party's cause will continuously achieve victories; without the authority of the Party Central Committee and centralised unified leadership, the party's leadership will inevitably weaken, and the party's cause will inevitably suffer setbacks." Could this be a subtle reference to Xi Jinping's autocratic governance in recent years and the various consequences that have arisen from it?
By January 20, this message became even clearer. On that day, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China convened a meeting to review a comprehensive report on the work of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, the State Council, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the Supreme Court, and the Supreme Procuratorate, along with the work report of the Central Secretariat, which was chaired by Xi Jinping.
Reports indicate that while acknowledging the work of the five party groups over the past year, the meeting highlighted their commitment to "Xi Thought" and their "firm maintenance of the authority of the Party Central Committee and centralised unified leadership." In discussing expectations for the new year, there were also statements emphasising the need to "uphold the highest political principle of the centralised unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, ensuring ideological unity, consistent direction, and strict compliance with orders."
In summary, starting in 2025, the highest political principle of the Communist Party of China has officially transitioned at the highest level from the previous years' commitment to "firmly achieve the 'Two Upholds'," which refers to "upholding Xi's core position in the center and the core position of the entire party, and maintaining the authority of the Party Central Committee with Xi at its core and centralized unified leadership," to a focus on "upholding the authority of the Party Central Committee and centralized unified leadership."
The current 'Party Central' no longer emphasises Xi Jinping as its core, which raises the question of whether this signifies a de facto abolition of Xi's 'one core' status. Whether or not Xi is willing to accept this change, it is evident that his power has been significantly weakened. Consequently, the highest echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are reverting to the previous model of collective leadership.
Following over a year of preparation, the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is bound to follow this paramount principle, making the diminishment of Xi's power inevitable. There are several potential scenarios for this weakening, including Xi stepping down as Chairman of the Central Military Commission, resigning as Party leader, while possibly retaining the presidency. However, the CCP's behind-the-scenes strategists clearly wish to avoid inciting unrest. As long as these strategists remain focused on preserving the Party and are unwilling to heed the repeated warnings from above, they must adapt to the prevailing global trends. Regardless of the eventual outcome of the Fourth Plenary Session, the ultimately tragic fate will remain unchanged.
(First published by People News) △
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