The United States' "2026 Threat Assessment" Special Edition on China

On March 18, 2026, during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing at Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., attendees included, from left to right, FBI Director Kash Patel, Defence Intelligence Agency Director James Adams III, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, Commander of U.S. News Network President William Hartman, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. (Video screenshot)

[People News] On Wednesday (March 18), the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released the "2026 Threat Assessment" report. This report identifies the People's Republic of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as the primary threat countries, highlighting that military and economic cooperation among these four nations is intensifying.

The report emphasises the threats posed by the Communist Party of China:

1. Aggressive missile development: The Communist Party of China is rapidly expanding its missile arsenal, with projections suggesting that by 2035, the missile threat to the U.S. mainland will grow from the current over 3,000 missiles to more than 16,000.

2. Hacker Attacks as a Persistent Threat: The cyber attacks attributed to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) represent the most persistent and active threat, with ongoing research and development (R&D) in hacking technologies. The CCP is recognised as the most active and enduring cyber threat to the U.S. government, private sector, and critical infrastructure networks.

3. Arctic Strategic Expansion: While the People's Republic of China (PRC) is not an Arctic nation, the CCP is working to expand its influence in the Arctic through cooperation with Russia, as well as increasing maritime trade, natural resource extraction, and military activities. This expansion aims to advance its strategic and economic interests, posing risks to global security dynamics.

4. Dominance in AI (Artificial Intelligence): Technologically, AI capabilities are rapidly evolving and reshaping the threat landscape. The Chinese side is the strongest competitor to the U.S. in the AI sector, with ambitions to surpass the U.S. and become the global leader in AI by 2030.

5. Military Modernisation and Regional Ambitions: The CCP is rapidly advancing the modernisation of its military forces across various domains, with the goal of achieving a 'world-class' status by the middle of this century. This includes developing operational forces capable of deterring and disrupting U.S. and allied military power in the region, as well as the capacity to forcibly seize Taiwan if necessary.

According to reports from The Dajiyuan, the report not only highlights the threats posed by China under CCP rule in military, technology, cyber, and global influence sectors but also features a dedicated page titled 'Overview of China's Strategy.'

The overview indicates that Beijing has long held deep suspicions towards the U.S. and has consistently believed that the U.S. is engaging in collaborative actions to contain China's (CCP's) development and rise, undermine the rule of the Chinese Communist Party, and prevent China (CCP) from achieving its objectives.

The report also stated, 'At the same time, when Chinese leaders believe that easing tensions with Washington is advantageous for Beijing, can safeguard its core interests, and allow time to strengthen its own position, they will seek to ease tensions with Washington.'

The U.S. intelligence community expects that the Chinese Communist Party will continue to enhance its conventional military capabilities and strategic forces, escalate competition in the space sector, and uphold its industrial and technology-intensive economic strategy to compete with the economic power of the United States, while also making strides in advanced manufacturing and commodity exports in the 'Global South.'

Additionally, the report cautions that China may persist in maintaining U.S. reliance on it for key minerals, energy storage systems, pharmaceutical raw materials, and drones, while accelerating efforts to reduce its own dependence on the U.S. in sensitive or strategic areas such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence.

The U.S. intelligence community highlights that Beijing has shown strong cyber attack capabilities and the ability to disrupt U.S. infrastructure, aiming to gain espionage advantages and strategic leverage in conflicts.

Regarding international relations, the overview specifically notes that the strengthening of Sino-Russian ties has bolstered Russia's capacity to sustain the war in Ukraine and resist external pressures. The U.S. intelligence community indicates that China's imports of Russian oil and natural gas provide Moscow with a crucial source of revenue, aiding it in withstanding international sanctions; furthermore, China exports dual-use military and civilian materials and technologies to Russia, which helps maintain Russia's defence production while diminishing its motivation to achieve a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine.
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