China's Internet is Abuzz: 90% of Small County Towns Are Disappearing

China's Internet is Abuzz: 90% of Small County Towns Are Disappearing (online screenshot)

[People News] Can you believe it? A phrase is circulating on Chinese social media: 90% of small county towns are disappearing!

Recently, numerous Chinese netizens have shared videos to illustrate just how desolate their small county towns have become. These towns lack industry and economic backbone industries, with most young people relying on administrative positions for employment. The local economy primarily depends on administrative staff who hold 'iron rice bowls'.

The videos almost universally depict the same scene in the town centres: sparse pedestrian traffic, over 90% of shops with their doors and windows closed, all waiting to be sold or rented. At night, many residential buildings are dark, with only a few scattered windows lit. Residents express concern that it won't be long before their hometowns become ghost towns.

One blogger presented the street scene of Taiyuan, the capital of Shanxi Province, a second-tier city, on camera: 'Look at this main road in Taiyuan; it's now 5 PM, and there are no people and no cars, with all the storefronts along the road closed.'

Another blogger remarked: 'This is a small town in Sichuan, just a mountain away from Chongqing. There is no industrial support, and 30,000 people have left to work elsewhere, leading to a surplus of houses compared to children. Many apartments are unoccupied, and housing prices have plummeted. A 110 square meter apartment with three bedrooms and one living room costs only 50,000 yuan in full payment, and the utilities are as low as 460 yuan per square meter, yet there is still no interest from buyers.'

A female blogger remarked, "When you enter any small county town, the facade looks stunning, but it is eerily silent, completely devoid of vitality. Housing prices are dropping, the market is sluggish, industries are relocating, industrial parks are deserted, and young people struggle to find suitable job opportunities, forcing them to migrate to larger cities. Once the population loss becomes critical, the economy of the county town will continue to decline, creating a vicious cycle that seems impossible to break."

Additionally, the so-called 'iron rice bowl' that many netizens talk about is becoming increasingly scarce. Due to budget constraints, numerous provincial and municipal governments are cutting back on personnel.

According to a report by Economic Observer Network in July 2024, Shanxi Province has taken the lead in implementing personnel cuts in small counties, launching a pilot reform of institutional structures:

In Liu Fan County, the number of public institution positions was slashed from over 3,000 to 341, representing a reduction rate of 88.6%.
In Hequ County, the number of public institution positions decreased from 1,964 to 659, a reduction rate of 66.4%.
In Fushan County, the number of public institution positions fell from 1,944 to 970, a reduction rate of 50.1%.

Why are these cuts necessary? Because many county towns can no longer sustain such a large number of public employees. The superficial prosperity of these towns is, in fact, a bubble on the verge of bursting.

With population decline, fiscal crises, crashing housing prices, and suspended public services... this is the reality facing over 95% of small county towns in China.

It's no surprise that many netizens express their concerns: in our lifetime, we may witness the total disappearance of 95% of small county towns.

The decline of most county towns is closely linked to the rapid decrease in population.

A report by Phoenix Network in April 2023 reveals that Zeping Macro analysed population flow data from 3,000 counties in China between 2010 and 2020, yielding some startling results:

Out of these counties, 1,676 are experiencing population outflow, which represents 77.9%. This marks a significant increase of 14% compared to the previous decade (2000 to 2010).

Specifically, the proportion of four-tier cities facing population loss rose from 45% to 57%, five-tier cities from 71% to 83%, and six-tier cities from 69% to 86%.

Clearly, small cities and counties are witnessing a dramatic decline in population. This trend appears to be an unstoppable force.

In spite of this, the propaganda machine of the Communist Party of China has been actively promoting the vibrancy of consumption in county-level markets over the past two years: various dining and retail businesses are expanding into lower-tier markets, with even Starbucks opening locations in county towns. Online, the comfortable lifestyles of the so-called 'county Brahmins' have left millions of urban workers feeling disheartened.

However, the reality shows that these seemingly prosperous images can only be found in reports from China Central Television.

According to the China Economic Weekly, as 2024 begins, the rental and sales market in 100 counties nationwide is looking bleak. Among these, nearly 20 cities, including Xuancheng in Anhui, Shaoyang in Hunan, and Tianshui in Gansu, have commercial vacancy rates exceeding 50%. This indicates that half of the commercial properties in these counties are involved in 'prosperous shop transfers.' Many small counties are now trapped in a situation where they have 'no way out.'

However, civil servants in county towns are now facing salary delays, with an increasing number of them expressing dissatisfaction: year-end bonuses have disappeared, subsidies are gone, and monthly salaries are merely 3,000 yuan. Besides Shanxi Province, which was mentioned earlier, other provinces such as Qinghai, Gansu, Jiangxi, and Hunan have also begun to implement pilot institutional reforms, determined to dismantle the 'iron rice bowl.' This is largely due to the fact that many county towns are experiencing financial deficits.

For example, in Guizhou, none of the 88 districts and counties had a fiscal self-sufficiency rate exceeding 100% in 2022. Renhuai City, home to Moutai Town, boasts the highest self-sufficiency rate at just 87.65%, while Rongjiang County, the lowest, has a shocking self-sufficiency rate of only 4.71%.

This indicates that all districts and counties in Guizhou are dependent on fiscal 'blood transfusions' from higher authorities!

Another case is Foping County in Hanzhong City, Shaanxi Province, which has a population of only 26,000, with over 8,000 residing in the urban area, yet nearly 3,000 individuals are on the government payroll.

According to public data, Foping County's general public budget revenue in 2022 was merely 24.82 million yuan, while expenditures soared to 1.055 billion yuan, with salary expenses alone reaching 272 million yuan. This means that the county's total annual fiscal revenue is insufficient to cover the salaries of personnel within the system.

How can this significant fiscal gap be addressed? Aside from issuing bonds and imposing hefty fines, the only option left is to rely on transfer payments from higher authorities.

However, since the start of this year, the financial situation for both central and local governments has been challenging.

Public data indicates that in 2025, resource-rich provinces such as Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai are expected to see a year-on-year decline in fiscal revenue, with Shaanxi experiencing a 3.1% drop. This decline is primarily attributed to falling prices of resources like coal, along with the effects of tax cuts and reduced fees.

Data from 2024 reveals that among the five provinces facing revenue declines—Jiangxi, Guangxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi—Shanxi has recorded the largest decrease in fiscal revenue at 7.9%.

At various levels of government, the practices of "tightening budgets" and "selling off assets" have become commonplace. This financial pressure is bound to affect smaller counties.

In reality, many counties that are struggling with fiscal deficits are supporting a large population that relies on government financial assistance.

A recent development statistical bulletin from Chengwu County in Shandong Province has shocked many netizens due to its pension structure. In 2023, the number of retirees within the system in this county is 8,800, consuming an astonishing 800 million yuan in pension funds, while the pensions for 120,000 ordinary residents total only 250 million yuan! The drastic disparity between the retirement benefits of those within the system and those outside it is likely to create significant social problems, inevitably leading to widespread public discontent that could ultimately spark a major upheaval against the Communist Party of China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=briNTClaMUE&t=7s

(First published by People News) △